Pakatan Harapan is unlikely to make many inroads in Johor for the coming general election, according to Centre for A Better Tomorrow (Cenbet) co-president Gan Ping Sieu.

If Gan's prediction turns out to be correct, it would present a significant hurdle to Harapan which sees Johor as a key win for its ambition to take federal control in the coming 14th general elections.

Gan, a former deputy minister, told a forum in Kuala Lumpur today that Harapan’s victory in Johor would depend on its ability to sway the Malay electorate to their side.

This would be an uphill task as Umno's Johor Menteri Besar Mohamed Khaled Nordin (photo) remains popular and has one of the highest popularity ratings for Malay leaders, he said.

Johor's Malay voters may also not vote for Harapan even if they are disgruntled with Khaled’s administration.

“Traditionally, when the Johor Malays are very angry with the government, they will vote PAS. That has always been their tendency.

“So I think as far as Johor is concerned, for Pakatan Harapan to make serious inroads is not easy,” he said, adding that there were few places in Johor where Harapan could hope to score victories.

Gan was speaking at the forum entitled 'Malaysia’s political outlook: What’s happening in Malaysian politics; what’s next to come?”

The forum was organised by the Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute.

Gan added that Johoreans were not as badly affected by bread-and-butter issues such as the GST and the rising cost of living due to high foreign direct investment (FDI) in the state.

In the manufacturing sector alone, he said, FDI in Johor over the past six to eight years was double that of Penang and Selangor combined.

People migrating from northern and central Malaysia to Johor, totalling almost 400,000 people over the past few years also highlighted the economic opportunities available in the state, he added.

While Harapan is likely to field Bersatu president and incumbent Pagoh MP Muhyiddin Yassin in Johor, Gan said this would only have a limited impact beyond the parliamentary constituencies of Pagoh and Muar.

Although Muhyiddin was once the Johor menteri besar, this was about 20 years ago, he noted.

In addition, he said the Johor royal family was hugely popular across all ethnic groups in Johor and the royal family have “old scores to settle” with Muhyiddin and Bersatu chairperson Dr Mahathir Mohamad, he said.