Analysts reveal how Muhyiddin can avert a political crisis
The conviction of former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak for criminal charges related to SRC International Sdn Bhd could trigger a snap poll caused by an unhappy Umno withdrawing its support for the Muhyiddin-led Perikatan Nasional (PN) government.
Many believe so as Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, who leads Bersatu which controls 31 parliamentary seats, also leads the ruling coalition that barely controls the Dewan Rakyat with a slim majority.
Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who appeared unhappy with the verdict had stated that the party would make a "political decision". Party insiders were reportedly saying that Umno, the largest party in the ruling bloc, was mulling to pull out from PN.
Dismissing the speculation, Zahid said Umno will defend its solidarity with allies in PN but it vowed to pay serious attention to Najib's appeal to ensure there would be no interference from any quarters.
While noting that PN may fall apart and a snap poll could be called, political analysts, however, believed there are...
The conviction of former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak for criminal charges related to SRC International Sdn Bhd could trigger a snap poll caused by an unhappy Umno withdrawing its support for the Muhyiddin-led Perikatan Nasional (PN) government.
Many believe so as Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, who leads Bersatu which controls 31 parliamentary seats, also leads the ruling coalition that barely controls the Dewan Rakyat with a slim majority.
Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who appeared unhappy with the verdict had stated that the party would make a "political decision". Party insiders were reportedly saying that Umno, the largest party in the ruling bloc, was mulling to pull out from PN.
Dismissing the speculation, Zahid said Umno will defend its solidarity with allies in PN but it vowed to pay serious attention to Najib's appeal to ensure there would be no interference from any quarters.
While noting that PN may fall apart and a snap poll could be called, political analysts, however, believed there are ways for Muhyiddin to avert the political crisis potentially brought about by Umno leaders and parliamentarians who are facing criminal trials in court.
One of the ways is to engage with the second layer of Umno leaders, particularly those who were appointed into Muhyiddin's cabinet to diffuse the tension between Umno and Bersatu.
Universiti Malaya associate professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi said Umno is divided between the first layer of leaders, which are those facing trials such as Najib and Zahid, as well as the second layer of leaders which had been appointed as ministers in Muhyiddin's cabinet.
Umno was seen as unhappy because the court verdict confirmed that what had been harped on by the opposition during the 2018 general election, such as the 1MDB scandal, was genuine. This could inspire the opposition to continue to use such talking points during future campaign periods, especially if a snap poll is called by Muhyiddin.
Awang Azman added that Muhyiddin (photo), who controlled the Dewan Rakyat with a razor-thin majority, could easily be ousted if only a few Umno lawmakers declared that they are withdrawing support for the premier.
When that happens, Muhyiddin may be forced to dissolve the Parliament if he failed to retain the support of Umno, which controls 39 seats.
However, he said Muhyiddin could continue to engage the second layer of Umno leaders, including Foreign Minister Hishammuddin Hussein and Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Khairy Jamaluddin.
Concurring, Universiti Sains Malaysia professor Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid said that Muhyiddin needs Umno's backing if he wants to continue to stay in power.
"He could always tell them that the government pays attention to good governance and (many saw the) court verdict (as a sign of) no interference in the judiciary. I think the stock market price has gone up and that sparked confidence among foreign investors," he said.
Ahmad Fauzi also opined that Muhyiddin will eventually find out if he continues to have the support of all PN parties when the Dewan Rakyat votes for the 2021 Budget which will be tabled on Nov 6.
"PAS leaders also visited Najib. But whether the morale support of PAS will translate into support in Parliament, we will have to see how the government maneuvers in the coming months, especially when 2021 Budget is tabled in Dewan Rakyat," he added.
He also pointed out that how Najib supporters reacted on that fateful day of judgement could be read as a sign that they defied the court judgement, and that in the long run would not be beneficial to Umno.
"In the long term, Umno leadership should come to their senses. It is better for Umno, as a national party and as a party that brought Malaysia to independence, to prove that it goes along with rule of law, regardless if its leaders are affected (by court decisions)," said Ahmad Fauzi.
He also said that Umno may need to think twice in opting out from PN and going for a general election, as this may not be the best option for the party.
For one, he said the court verdict increased the support and approval rate for Muhyiddin, who is generally labelled as the mastermind and premier of the current backdoor government.
Malaysians who supported the reform and anti-corruption manifesto of Pakatan Harapan will look more favourably on Muhyiddin after Najib's guilty verdict, he said.
He explained that the Malays, especially those in urban areas, are more receptive to the anti-corruption efforts taken by the government. The people's continued support will hinge on if Muhyiddin continues to be seen as adhering to the anti-corruption and reform agenda, he said.
"He played his game well," Ahmad Fauzi said, adding that there has opened up the possibility of Muhyiddin to cooperate with his former allies, including former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
"So, Umno may need to think about what is the best scenario for them. Is the snap poll the best scenario? We are not sure. It might be better for them to maintain their support for PN to undermine Harapan gradually," he said.
He then gave the example of DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng being summoned by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) to record a statement on the Penang undersea tunnel project.
Citing a survey during the Chini state seat by-election, Ahmad Fauzi said it was found that the Malays accepted Muhyiddin as a leader but think he should rejoin Umno instead of staying in Bersatu; adding that Muhyiddin needs to continue to gain the upper hand if he wishes to continue as prime minister after the next election.
He also warned of a possible divide between rural and urban voters should Umno decide to go to the polls with its PAS partner under the umbrella of Muafakat Nasional.
He noted that it would be in the best interests for political parties to see Malaysians as a whole, thereby increasing their longevity and political security.
"The outlook of some leaders who are more open to the minority races in the country is much better for the country as a whole," he said.
Even if Muhyiddin is unable to obtain continued support from his current PN allies, Ahmad Fauzi said that the Bersatu president could explore the opportunity to cooperate with his former allies, including Mahathir's faction and Harapan.
However, Awang Azman dismissed the possibility of Muhyiddin cooperating with Harapan as that notion may be rejected by former PKR deputy president Azmin Ali and his supporters, who are made up of a dozen Bersatu MPs.
"If this happens (Muhyiddin working with Harapan), then PKR president Anwar Ibrahim will want to become the prime minister, then Azmin will refuse to work with Anwar," he said.
Currently, PN controls 112 parliamentary seats while there are 108 opposition MPs.
Out of the 108 opposition MPs, 91 of them are from Harapan, nine are from Warisan, one is from Upko, and two are from Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB). Mahathir's faction controls six seats.
Lubok Antu MP Jugah Muyang who quit PKR in June has pledged to support PN.
