Emergency won't solve problems of a minority govt - analyst

The state of emergency declared today amid mounting political unrest within the ruling Perikatan Nasional coalition could put a brake on any attempt at toppling the government of Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, analysts said.

However, they cautioned that Muhyiddin's announcement earlier today, as part of the government's efforts to combat rising Covid-19 infections, would not be a permanent solution to the instability of the PN administration.

National Professors' Council senior fellow Prof Jeniri Amir (above) told Malaysiakini that a segment of the society will view the emergency declaration as a way to extend PN's shaky tenure, rather than as a sincere effort to save the people.

For politicians in the ruling coalition power, Jeniri said the declaration would only work to temporarily cool down rising temperatures within the PN pact.

"It can calm things down but this does not mean the problems of a minority government will be solved.

"The moment the emergency is lifted, attempts to disrupt and change the government will continue because declaring an emergency is not the solution for a political problem," said Jeniri.

"For how long are we going to have an emergency? At the end of the day, the government must face real politics.

"If their position is like 'an egg at the tip of a buffalo's horn', then they are just waiting to be gored," Jeniri said in citing the Malay proverb that describes a precarious or untenable position.

Former minister Nazri Abdul Aziz earlier today became the second Umno MP to withdraw support for Muhyiddin and PN, leaving the government with 109 MPs out of the 222 in Parliament, which has two vacancies.

Political analyst Prof Nik Ahmad Kamal Nik Mahmood said a majority of the rakyat were focusing on health issues and their livelihoods above other matters, such as any change of government via democratic means or otherwise.

Echoing Jeniri's views that the emergency would only bring about a temporary political ceasefire, Nik Ahmad Kamal said politicians were less likely to make any open attempt to push for a change in government.

"Even in the context of an emergency, it does not mean an end to politicking. Politics will go on as normal but it will depend on the politicians.

"If they view the public's welfare as important, they will have to place political issues lower on the priority scale," he told Malaysiakini.

The International Islamic University law professor, however, noted that to do so would be difficult for a government ruling under a prolonged state of a razor-thin majority.

"Therefore, we cannot dismiss the possibility whereby a politician will take advantage of the current (unstable) situation to try and bring down the government," he said, pointing out there were other alternatives, outside of Parliament, that could still be pursued.

Nik Ahmad Kamal said any attempt behind the scenes to bring down Muhyiddin's majority could continue but there was a higher risk of a public backlash against any overt move to achieve the goal.

"In times of this pandemic, I see that the rakyat does not want anything that can further disrupt the country's political stability.

"That means if any leader or party attempts to grab power now, they will incur the public's wrath," he said.

Muhyiddin in his speech today had warned of stern action against any attempt to "disrupt" the government's Covid-19 fight and the country's economy during the emergency.

'Opportunity to checkmate Umno'

Aside from external attempts, Muhyiddin's PN government is also facing internal pressure from its coalition partners, with Umno's grassroots pushing for the party to cut ties with Bersatu.

Associate Professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi said that, on one hand, Muhyiddin was presented with an opportunity to "checkmate" efforts by a group within Umno bent on withdrawing support for his administration.

"In fact, they cannot proceed to hold the Umno annual general assembly," he said.

The rift between Bersatu and Umno culminated last week with the Umno supreme council endorsing a motion from 189 out of its 191 divisions to break ties with Bersatu. A final decision is to be made at the Umno general assembly, which is scheduled to be held on Jan 31.

Prior to today's emergency declaration, a faction within Umno has also called for snap polls to be held.

In a veiled reference to the quarters within Umno, Muhyiddin said he could not call for an election during the pandemic, but he assured that he would do so as soon as it was safe to do so.

Political analyst Prof Azmi Hassan noted that Muhyiddin had, in his speech,  stressed that court proceedings would go on as usual under the emergency.

"I see that he had to make this emphasis because of the pressure on the government to review certain criminal charges said to be politically motivated, as well as certain other cases that were closed.

"The prime minister mentioned this issue over a perception that the emergency declaration would be used to expedite, postpone or drop a case," Azmi said.

Earlier today, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong declared a national emergency that will last until Aug 1.

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