Harapan hopes silver state will be its 'silver bullet'

GE15 | The battle for the seats in Perak continues to pose the question of who will be the ultimate winner in the silver state.

All three coalitions - BN, Perikatan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan - have revealed their respective strengths and weaknesses over the past two weeks.

Based on Malaysiakini’s observation, Harapan would be able to retain 11 out of the 24 parliamentary seats in Perak. The 11 comprise seats with a non-Malay majority or mixed constituencies.

These include Ipoh Timur, Ipoh Barat, Batu Gajah, Teluk Intan, Taiping, Sungai Siput, Kampar, Beruas, Tanjong Malim, Gopeng and Tambun, where Harapan chairperson Anwar Ibrahim is contesting.

During Harapan’s ceramah in urban constituencies, DAP and PKR leaders promoted Anwar as the best prime minister candidate among the three coalitions.

The negative perception among the Chinese voters towards BN chairperson Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and PN’s chief Muhyiddin Yassin serves as another advantage for Harapan.

In the Malay-majority seat of Tambun, Anwar looks set to score a win against PN’s Ahmad Faizal Azumu despite Muhyiddin’s claim that Harapan is a “Jewish and Christian agent”.

Faizal, who is Muhyiddin’s number two in Bersatu, had been the menteri besar of Perak for a mere 28 months and voters know little about his contributions or ideas for the state.

As for the other 13 parliamentary seats, at least five could be considered as “grey” including Bagan Serai, Kuala Kangsar, Tapah, Lumut and Bagan Datuk.

However, a survey purportedly by the pro-Harapan data firm Invoke, which circulated on social media, suggested that Harapan might win 15 seats, including Kuala Kangsar and Tapah.

The survey projected that PN would retain Larut and Bukit Gantang while BN would have seven seats - Gerik, Lenggong, Bagan Serai, Padang Rengas, Parit, Pasir Salak and Bagan Datuk.

Zahid has spent most of his time safeguarding Bagan Datuk and did not campaign for other candidates from the coalition in the state.

However, it would not be correct to conclude that Bagan Datuk is safe for BN and in Zahid’s own words, “civet cats could raid his chicken coop”.

The Umno president, who first won the seat in 1995, is hoping to convince voters to choose him again despite the deluge of corruption cases against him.

Meanwhile, Anwar’s campaign has been focused on the abovementioned seats except for Kuala Kangsar and his presence drew hundreds, sending a strong signal to his rivals.

Although Harapan is banking on Anwar to win over Perak, his charisma and influence did not make significant inroads in the north.

Known for its strong Islamic influence, northern Perak is PAS’ fortress on the West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The majority of seats also have more than 70 percent of Malays, except for Taiping and Parit Buntar.

In GE14, PAS contested solo in 21 out of 24 parliamentary seats and was still able to garner about 13 percent of the total votes cast without losing any deposit.

This time, PAS’ machinery is stronger. Funds and resources are no longer a problem following its alliance with Bersatu in PN.

From Bukit Gantang to Bagan Serai and Larut, PN flags and banners dominate the landscape.

Religious narrative against Harapan

The three seats are contested by PN heavyweights, including incumbents Syed Abu Hussin Hafiz, Hamzah Zainudin and PAS vice-president Idris Ahmad.

To appeal to their Muslim supporters, PN’s narrative is centred on attacking Anwar and Harapan from a religious angle, painting them as liberals who promoted certain freedoms that could threaten the Malay race and Islam.

Another common accusation is that the predominantly-Chinese DAP is controlling Harapan and that Umno, under Zahid, is willing to join hands with them.

Within a week of campaigning, Perak PAS chief Razman Zakaria and Kedah PAS chief Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor both received letters of demand from Anwar for alleged defamation.

Although PN might capture several seats in the north, Harapan and BN remain the main contenders from central to south Perak.

Based on Malaysiakini’s observation in southern Perak, Harapan is leading in at least four seats - Gopeng, Kampar, Teluk Intan and Tanjung Malim.

In Gopeng, Kampar and Teluk Intan, non-Malay voters outnumber Malay voters.

In the six-way tussle for Tanjung Malim, it is a tight race between Harapan incumbent Chan Lih Kang, MCA deputy president Dr Mah Hang Soon and PN’s Nolee Radzi, a former state exco.

However, the split among Malay voters and the strong support from the Sungkai state constituency are expected to favour the PKR vice-president in his bid to retain the seat for a second term.

Another hot seat is Lumut, where the Harapan incumbent from Amanah, Hatta Ramli, is locking horns with BN secretary-general Zambry Abdul Kadir.

In the last election, Hatta defeated Zambry, who was also the Perak menteri besar then, by just 400 votes.

For GE15, the turnout rate among the 92,972 voters, which is 25,000 more than 2018, would determine the winner.

Meanwhile, Pasir Salak, once regarded as a BN stronghold, is now classified as a “grey” seat after its three-term incumbent Tajuddin Abdul Rahman was replaced with Khairul Azwan Harun.

Khairul, who is popularly known as Azwan Bro, is facing three opponents, including Harapan’s Nik Omar, who is the son of the late PAS spiritual leader Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat.

With PN in the picture, Harapan is hoping to capitalise on the split in Malay votes.

During a ceramah in Kampar on Wednesday, DAP chairperson Lim Guan Eng said if Harapan can secure at least about 30 percent Malay support, the coalition has a good chance of capturing Putrajaya.

Harapan is also expecting the same formula to work at the state level as well, with a source telling Malaysiakini that the coalition hopes to bag 35 out of the 59 state seats due to the split in Malay votes.

“However, there are 10 seats that are still too close to call. We must be cautious and push for higher turnout in order to make sure victory is ours,” the source said.

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