Ilham Centre: Mahkota polls depends on turnout along racial lines

MAHKOTA BY-ELECTION | The outcome of tomorrow’s Mahkota by-election would very much depend on voter turnout along racial lines, according to research firm Ilham Centre.

Lead researcher associate professor Mohd Yusri Ibrahim said BN started off campaigning on a comfortable footing, but faced hurdles midway.

“The main factor is not getting ‘safe’ votes from the existing Pakatan Harapan voters, particularly Chinese voters who are less interested in voting.

“At the same time, BN is still struggling with Umno’s core segment, which is Malay votes,” Yusri said in a statement on Facebook today.

The Mahkota by-election was called following the death of the incumbent from Umno, Sharifah Azizah Syed Zain, on Aug 2.

BN candidate Syed Hussien Syed Abdullah will take on Perikatan Nasional’s Mohd Haizan Jaafar in a straight fight.

Elaborating, Yusri said voter turnout would be the kingmaker in tomorrow’s polls.

“Despite uncertainties, BN is still the choice to emerge the victor, provided it gets at least 40 percent of Malay votes, and not fewer than 35 percent of Chinese votes.

“If these numbers are not achieved, PN, which initially came off as the underdog, could pull a surprise and rob BN of a victory.

“However, if BN manages to garner numbers greater than the specified threshold, they have the potential to win with a larger majority,” Yusri predicted.

In the March 2022 Johor state election, Sharifah, who represented BN, won the seat with a majority of 5,166 votes.

Strengths and weaknesses

Yusri said both BN and PN candidates had their strengths and weaknesses, with the former having a “slight” upper hand.

“In general, it is easier for the BN candidate to penetrate the two largest groups of Mahkota voters, namely the Malay and Chinese voters.

“His education background, career, hierarchy in the party, and involvement in community organisations give added value for him to interact with both groups (of voters) comfortably.

“His Mandarin speaking skills and understanding of the social structure of the Chinese also give him an advantage,” said Yusri.

Mohd Haizan, meanwhile, is largely betting on his involvement in football to be recognised by voters, said the researcher.

While he seemed comfortable among Malay voters, the PN candidate struggled to fit in with the Chinese demography, Yusri noted.

Mohd Haizan also seemed influential among military voters, who make up 4,510 of the electorate, as he once ran a cafeteria in an army camp there.

Machinery-wise, BN had the upper hand over PN, Yusri noted.

Campaign strategies

Yusri further noted the difference in campaign strategies adopted by BN and PN, with the former opting for a “direct engagement” approach with voters, as opposed to the ceramah, walkabout, and live podcast approach taken by PN.

According to him, PN largely engaged with the Malay electorate and faced issues interacting with the Chinese voters, with Gerakan’s presence hardly making any impact.

He said DAP and MCA, both components of the coalition government, have effectively worked to attract Chinese voters in the Mahkota campaign.

Yusri noted that both sides faced issues in categorising “white” (strong support) voters, based on the demography of the constituency.

“This situation greatly affected the campaign pattern, where the majority of voters were treated with almost the same message, without focus messages toward target groups.

“This development shows that Mahkota is an ‘open court’, where anyone has the chance to win if they can persuade the voters.”

Voter hesitance

Although Chinese voters are comfortable with the BN candidate due to his Mandarin speaking skills, the challenge is getting them to go out to vote, said Yusri.

“This is because they think the Mahkota by-election does not impact the state government or the federal government in any way.

“At the same time, Chinese voters are also uncomfortable with Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh’s attacks against DAP MP Teresa Kok over the halal certificate issue.

“Although DAP tried hard to persuade them (to come out and vote), their response was generally cold,” said Yusri.

The Indian electorate was also indifferent in the polls, by not showing backing for any competing parties, he added.

“Various issues were voiced by Indian voters such as feeling neglected by the government, a lack of strong representation in the government causing their voice to be limited, as well as issues of job opportunities and the general cost of living.”

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