KINIGUIDE | Sabah polls: Friendly fire and battle royales

KINIGUIDE | Campaigning for the Sabah state election is in full swing.

As always, the Sabah election is a crowded contest, with no straight fights in any of the 73 seats up for grabs.

Further, many parties have made last-minute additions to the list of candidates, leading to clashes.

Malaysiakini sifts through the mountain of candidates and boils it down.

How is Pakatan Harapan’s ‘love triangle’ working out?

Harapan had two separate partners going into the election, BN and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS).

However, BN and GRS, who have refused to work together, are clashing in 44 seats. For context, BN is contesting in 45 seats.

But it's not just those two that are butting heads.

In Karamunting, the sole seat where BN is not fighting GRS, it is instead clashing with Harapan. The Harapan candidate from PKR, George Hiew, who is also the incumbent, had hopped over from GRS just before the election.

Harapan is also clashing with GRS in Moyog. PKR fielded a candidate there after Upko left Harapan.

There are also three seats - Bandau, Kemabong, and Silam - where all three main coalitions are clashing. Harapan had decided at the 11th hour to contest in those three seats.

Does this mean the ‘love triangle’ is over?

No. Friendly fire is a common phenomenon in Sabah elections, even within a coalition.

For example, BN and Perikatan Nasional teamed up in 2020, clashed in several seats, but still ended up forming the state government together.

READ MORE: Political dynasties dominate Sabah polls race

If BN, GRS, and Harapan together win the most seats in the election, it is likely that Harapan will force the other two to come to terms to form the next Sabah government together as well.

Is Upko clashing with Harapan?

Upko left Harapan over disagreements about the 40 percent revenue entitlement to Sabah, as well as tensions with PKR, which it accused of undermining its authority to lead the coalition in the state.

Before the break-up, Upko would have contested five seats. It is now contesting 25.

However, it is only clashing with Harapan in nine seats.

Of these, seven are clashes against PKR in Bandau, Inanam, Petagas, Moyog, Melalap, Tulid, and Gum-Gum. Upko is also squaring off against DAP veterans Chan Foong Hing and Jannie Lasimbang in Tanjung Aru and Kapayan, respectively.

Is Upko working with Star?

After Upko split from Harapan, Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (Star) had expressed an interest in cooperating. Both are aligned in a push to minimise the influence of peninsula-based parties in Sabah.

However, the end of nomination day signalled that there would be no partnership - at least during the election.

Upko is clashing with Star and its ally Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) in 23 seats.

How crowded is the election?

To get a sense of how competitive the election is, the smallest contests are four-way tussles in two seats - Merotai, and Warisan president Shafie Apdal’s constituency Senallang.

Six-cornered contests - the most common configuration in this election - are seen in 13 seats: Pitas, Matunggong, Usukan, Darau, Likas, Kuala Penyu, Lumadan, Sungai Manila, Sekong, Lamag, Kunak, Apas, and Sri Tanjong.

Six seats have 11 cornered fights, while there’s a 12-way bout in Banggi and Moyog, and 13 contenders each in Bandau, Tamparuli, Inanam, and Kapayan.

The most crowded field is Tulid, with a whopping 14 candidates, including six independents.

What does this mean for voters?

A crowded field increases the likelihood that many seats will have winners that do not represent the choice of the majority of voters.

Under the first-past-the-post electoral system in use, the candidate with the most votes wins, even if this does not amount to more than 50 percent of votes.

It is not uncommon in Sabah for candidates to win with less than 40 percent of votes.

Any other surprises?

The Election Commission’s dashboard for the Sabah polls lists one Lasius Miki as being a candidate for Pejuang - the party led by Mukhriz Mahathir.

However, the party’s information chief, Rafique Rashid Ali, has denied that Pejuang is contesting in the election and has asked the EC to rectify the error.

The EC later clarified that there was an error and that Lasius is a member of a similarly named Parti Perjuangan Rakyat, which is fielding six candidates in the election.

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COMMENT | Sabah Turks

Upko distances itself from talks with Sabah parties for now