KINIGUIDE | Malacca polls hot seats and a rare opportunity for kancil party

KINIGUIDE | Nominations for the Malacca state election have concluded, and campaigning is now underway.

Malaysiakini breaks down key seats readers should keep an eye on and other factors at play.

Where are the hot seats?

There are two main seats to watch: Ayer Keroh and Bukit Katil.

These are the two Pakatan Harapan seats that are at risk of flipping.

What’s going on in Ayer Keroh?

In Ayer Keroh, where it's a four-way contest between DAP incumbent Kerk Chee Yee, Malacca Gerakan chief Gan Peng Lam, as well as candidates from Bersatu and Bersama, one major factor at play is demographic shifts.

It used to be a Chinese-majority seat. However, the number of Chinese voters had decreased to 47.6 percent by 2022. Malays make up 42 percent of voters here, with another eight percent being Indian.

The demographic shifts could give Gerakan - which is relying on Malay votes from BN and Perikatan Nasional supporters - a chance to capture the seat if it can also sway Indian voters to its side.

But this is not guaranteed, as during the 2022 general election, 60 percent of Ayer Keroh voters backed Harapan at the Parliament level.

One factor that could work against DAP and Harapan is if Chinese voters decide to protest and split votes between it and Bersama.

Harapan’s best hope here would be if Bersatu can split PN support - which stood at 17.1 percent as of the 15th general election.

What about Bukit Katil?

In Bukit Katil - which is being defended by former chief minister Adly Zahari - the main problem is the consolidation of support for BN and PN.

As of the 15th general election, support for PN here was at 24.2 percent, BN support was at 34.9 percent, while support for Harapan was just 40.1 percent.

In the 2021 state election, Adly was able to hold on to the seat with 41.6 percent of the vote because BN and PN ballots were split.

However, this time around, it's Harapan that has to deal with the threat of split votes, again due to Bersama.

Further vote splitting could occur due to the entry of independent candidate Abu Bakar Sabudin, 65, a contractor by trade, according to Sinar Harian.

Can’t Harapan flip any seats?

No, not if BN and PN can largely sustain the level of support they had from GE15.

The one seat where it might be competitive is Machap Jaya, where support for Harapan as of the last general election was at 45.9 percent.

Former assemblyperson Ginie Lim Siew Lin - who won the seat in 2018 - has been tasked to wrest the seat from BN, but again might be hindered by Bersama nipping at her heels.

What about the other seats Harapan holds?

The other three seats that Harapan holds are all DAP strongholds, namely Kesidang, Kota Laksamana, and Bandar Hilir, where support for the coalition ranged from 63 percent to 83 percent as of GE15.

Bersama is also contesting these seats, but it is unclear how much support it will be able to get and if it can generate a big enough swing to threaten DAP’s hold.

Well, what about Bersama then?

The kancil party had set up camp in 16 seats in Malacca after unveiling its candidates two months ago, in an effort to generate support.

Its goal, for now, is to keep its deposits - a mission it failed during its last electoral showing in Johor.

In contests involving Harapan, the party led by Rafizi Ramli is likely to remain the underdog.

However, Harapan’s decision not to contest in Sungai Udang and Bemban gives Bersama an opportunity to bag votes that would have gone to the coalition.

Support for Harapan in Bemban during GE15 was at 39.2 percent, while 19.4 percent of Sungai Udang voters favoured the coalition then during the general election.

If Bersama can successfully get the Harapan votes, it could stand a good chance of keeping its deposits here. Some 12.5 percent of votes are needed to keep deposits.

Its best shot is likely in Bemban, where about 38 percent of voters are non-Malay.

Bemban is also where Bersama is fielding its arguably most high-profile candidate - Dr Solehin Saleh, brother of Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh.

While Bersama is known as the kancil party due to its logo, the mousedeer is woven into the history and identity of Malacca.

According to local legends, Parameswara witnessed a mousedeer kicking one of his hunting dogs into a river. Impressed by the small animal's strength and courage, he chose the spot as the site for a new kingdom, the Malacca Sultanate.

Speaking of which, what about Akmal and BN?

BN is mostly playing it safe in this election. Of the 23 seats it’s contesting, 20 are seats it won, while the remaining seat - Sungai Udang - was won by PN.

Akmal - who previously teased that he would be moving out of Merlimau - is defending the safe seat for a second term.

It's only MCA that is taking risks, fielding candidates in its traditional seats of Bandar Hilir and Kota Laksamana, which are now DAP strongholds.

It is likely that consolidated support for BN and PN will be sufficient to deliver the 21 “safe” seats to BN, while MCA’s foray into DAP strongholds will be an uphill battle.

Won’t Bersatu be a threat?

Bersatu’s strength in Malacca after its split with PN is unknown.

Most of Bersatu’s big names in Malacca - including former state chief Mas Ermieyati Samsudin - are aligned with the splinter party Wawasan Negara and PN.

It is also arguable that PAS has a stronger presence in the state than Bersatu.

While it likely still has pockets of support, it's not clear whether it would be enough to thwart BN and PN.

Like Bersama, a major challenge for Bersatu this time around is to prove that it still has enough followers to retain deposits in the seven seats it has decided to contest.

Any other trivia about the Malacca polls I need to know?

In Gadek, Putra’s Laila Norinda Maon stands as the only Malay candidate after Bersatu’s Zamri Abu Bakar dropped out. MIC, DAP, and Bersama are all fielding Indian candidates - S Nadarajah, K Jegasilan, and B Laveen, respectively - in the Malay-majority constituency.

The incumbent here is MIC’s VP Shanmugan, who regained the BN stronghold with a 559-vote majority in 2021 after DAP wrestled it away in 2018.

Aside from Abu Bakar, two other independent candidates have thrown in their lots, with Abd Halim Said in Bemban and Norrizan Jantan in Sungai Rambai.

The state election also displays Malaysia’s long-standing electoral gender imbalances: the Election Commission said only 14 of the 79 candidates are women.

The race to capture Malacca could lead to interesting implications for federal-level politics as speculation mounts over the possibility of a snap general election.

Since BN swept Johor and Negeri Sembilan, observers have conjectured that the coalition aims to surf the momentum of its “blue wave” to regain control of Putrajaya.

The 28-seat legislature heads to the polls on Nov 14, while early voting is set for Nov 10.

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