The 16th general election could end with a 20-year setback for Pakatan Harapan if the BN-Perikatan Nasional pact continues its momentum and turns its “Malay unity” wave into a tsunami.

The Negeri Sembilan election showed that BN-PN voters were highly motivated by the pact's communal agenda, fueled by anti-DAP sentiments and perceptions that the Harapan-led Madani government has not made life better.

Their ballots on Aug 1 closely matched BN and PN’s combined vote share from the 15th general election with almost perfect vote transferability between the two.

A Malaysiakini analysis applying this same formula to the peninsula shows that if BN-PN can sustain their...