Sarawak Pakatan's fortunes going into the impending state polls could very well depend on the impact "spoiler" candidates will have on splitting votes, said a political analyst.

Monash University's James Chin said the BN is expected to "field" candidates from outside their circle, setting up three-way contests that could shrink the opposition's vote bank.

NONE Among the spoilers expected is Parti Cinta Malaysia, which he said, is rumoured to have already listed 17 candidates for the state polls.

Chin ( left) waved off the on-going tussle for seats within Sarawak Pakatan as a minor issue, expecting them to strike consensus in time for nomination day.

And even if seat negotiations actually break down, he does not see that having a significant impact on the young opposition coalition's chances.

"Say Snap really goes for the 35 or 40 seats that they claim, it is most likely that this will set a three-way fight in only 10 seats," he told Malaysiakini .

Local sentiment VS imported arrogance

Snap recently declared it was planning to contest 40 seats in the coming state elections, while voicing their displeasure over the national opposition party's alleged arrogance in demanding 52 of the 71 state seats up for grabs.

azlan Chin pointed out, however, that it is Snap that stands to lose the most, with this polls seen as their last chance to return come to prominence or be end up consigned to the annals of history.

Snap, the oldest surviving party in Sarawak, has much to prove after its deregistration in late 2002 caused by a leadership tussle between its then president James Wong Kim Min and his deputy Peter Tinggom Kamarau.

Tinggom left the party and formed Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party (SPDP), usurping Snap's position in the state BN coalition and leaving his former party for dead.

Snap has managed to stay alive - winning a court battle last year that declared the Registrar of Societies' decision to de-register it null and void - but lost much significance over the years in political limbo.

The biggest gainers on the other hand will be the PKR, expected to win more seats going into the state elections, said Chin.

He said PKR has the benefit of being the "most spirited" of the four-member coalition, mostly due to the prevailing influence of state chief Baru Bian, especially within the SIB Church.

Sarawak will do PKR good

NONE However, Chin warned that Baru's influence could work against him, with the BN expected to train their guns on him.

He explained that while the state PKR chief has a lot of grassroots support, because of the small number of voters in Bakalalan, where is expected to contest, it would not take much to wipe out his advantage.

"The problem with Baru is not that he doesn't have enough support, but in Bakalalan there are roughly only 7,000 voters and the calculation is that BN only needs to secure 25 percent of the votes to sink his chances."

Overall for Sarawak Pakatan, Chin said the reading is that the Chinese are by and large for the opposition with a 50-50 chance for them in Bidayuh areas and a chance in selected Iban areas.

They are expected to do well in urban areas through DAP, but Chin said the real test bed for the state opposition will be the Bidayuh and Orang Ulu constituencies.

"They provide the best chance for the opposition to take on BN since 1987. If the opposition loses big, then it is likely they will be set back by at least two terms.

"If BN win big this time, they will use all their power and resources to crush the opposition. Sarawak is small and the voters are easily bullied, so they (opposition) will be out for the next five to 10 years," he said.

 

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