A political analyst has outlined five possible outcomes for Pakatan Rakyat that either spells doom or creates a stronger opposition coalition.

Penang-based Wong Chin Huat told Malaysiakini that with the way the coalition is now heading, the coalition members are unlikely to fare well in the next general election as the people would probably lose faith in them over the quarrels and disagreements going on in the alliance.

Wong said the first scenario would be that PAS leaves the coalition, leaving Pakatan “naked”, yet still manageable but fairly weaker.

The second scenario sees PAS splitting into two different factions, one that stays with Pakatan and the other, holding to its aspirations for ‘Malay unity’, joins forces with Umno and Barisan National.

“If that's the case, it depends how far PAS will work with Umno. If they get close to Umno, Pakatan may benefit from that as people might just reject PAS, seeing that it is now an ally of Umno.

“It will be reminiscent of the year 1974 to 1977 (when PAS was with Umno),” Wong pointed out.

The third situation, he said, is if PAS splits with one remaining with Pakatan and the other being independent of both the opposition coalition and Umno.

This, he said, would possibly weaken Pakatan.

“Comparing these three scenarios already shows that Pakatan will remain a strong coalition if the scenario goes the way of number two, weakest with the first one and somewhat balanced with the third scenario,” he added.

‘Status quo the worst’

Wong then moved to his fourth scenario, where Pakatan remains as it is at the present, which he said bears the worst outcome.

“The fourth scenario is where PAS stays on with Pakatan but they continue dragging on the issue of hudud and other matters.

“If this prolongs all the way to the (next general) election, that will definitely not be a good sign for Pakatan.

“This scenario will be the worst one. Pakatan will keep on debating and quarrelling and that type of Pakatan would be worse than if it splits,” Wong said.

PAS has been a thorn in the side of Pakatan since the coalition's best ever electoral showing in the May 2013 general election.

Central to disagreements is its recent revival of plans to implement hudud in Kelantan, a move that had been passed at state level during former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s time, but had been blocked from fruition by the federal government.

The hopes of Kelantan PAS were revitalised when Umno’s minister Jamil Khir Baharom ( left ) said the federal government now supports hudud in Kelantan.

The rift in Pakatan was further aggravated when PAS chief Abdul Hadi Awang broke ranks with both his partners and his own members during the prolonged Selangor MB crisis.

The crisis showed cracks both within Pakatan and PAS’ own ulama and progressive factions, with the latter being more favourable towards Pakatan unity.

‘Consensus best scenario’

Wong ( right ) said the fifth and final scenario offers the best outcome for the coalition comprising PAS, DAP and PKR.

“Now, the best situation would be that PAS and all the other Pakatan component parties come to an agreement on a common ground, as it was back in 2013. Cohesion,” Wong said.

The researcher concluded that if the situation with the component parties continued as it now was, it would be better for PAS to split from Pakatan.

However, he pointed out, if there is a break within Pakatan and PAS leaves the coalition, the remaining parties would not have the strength to take on Putrajaya.