Can the Sarawak Barisan Nasional (BN) obtain its desired absolute majority in Saturday's state elections? This is the question that is uppermost in the minds of the people of Sarawak.

BN has been in control of Sarawak since independence through the formation of Malaysia some 40 years ago. For about 10 years, the state was under the chief ministership of Abdul Rahman Yakub and for the last 25 years, under his nephew Abdul Taib Mahmud.

In the 2001 state election, the state BN captured 60 out of the 62 seats. The DAP won one seat in Kidurong and an independent candidate won another.

Clearly the people of Sarawak are divided in their opinion. If you talk to the BN people, they believe that the ruling front will get the absolute majority.

Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PPB) deputy president Alfred Jabu said courageously that BN would make a clean sweep of all the 71 seats. According to him, the opposition has no issues against the state BN, they only use stale issues such as the one surrounding Native Customary Rights (NCR) land.

But supporters of the opposition say that this election is a golden opportunity for the people who have been suffering under BN policies to topple the BN or at least reduce its absolute majority.

The opposition has said that in this election, the state BN is like a wounded tiger, whose strength has been weakened by internal problems within the four component parties of the coalition PPB, Sarawak United People's Party (Supp), Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party (SPDP) and Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS).

The internal bickering could have been worse if the term of the present state legislative assembly is allowed to live to its full term of five years (to the end of this year) because by then the recent increase in the price of petrol would further complicate existing problems. Already the multiple effects of the increase in the price of petrol have started to rear its ugly head.

Reports, counter-reports

Each of the four parties is beset with internal problems and power struggles. The longer these problems are left unsolved, the bigger they will become. Take PPB for example.

The internal problems in PPB began in June last year when rumours circulated of Taib stepping down as chief minister and president due to his health. The party, therefore, divided itself into two teams; Abang Johari Tun Openg, deputy president of the party heads one team and the other headed by Adenan Satem, senior vice-president.

Teams supporting the two leaders had been organising branch meetings throughout Sarawak before the July delegates conference. In order to ensure the victory of their respective leaders and the grand prize in the form of chief ministership that comes with it, each of the team had allegedly resorted to some unethical methods to win the branch meetings.

In certain areas, the same branch had two office-bearers and held two separate meetings. There were also allegations of phantom branches created by certain grassroots leaders to ensure that 'delegates' to the conference were their own men. In this way the grass roots leaders could ensure the victory of their leader at the conference.

It is said that more than 100 reports and counter-reports had been lodged with the Registrar of Societies (ROS) on this. There were also reports that certain branches had not submitted their annual returns for the past 25 years.

It is learnt that the ROS had twice come to Kuching to ask PPB to settle their problems otherwise the party would meet the same fate of the now defunct Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS). The problems in PBDS were minute and pale in comparison to the problems that are devouring PPB. Yet, the authorities de-registered PBDS.

As a result of the seriousness of the internal bickering, the July delegates conference was postponed indefinitely. Instead, some sort of seminar was held in Miri. But the bitterness and seriousness of the bickering cannot be solved by sweeping it under the carpet. It will explode when PPB decides to hold the next delegates conference possibly after the state election.

Second to the PPB, the next powerful party of the coalition is Supp. Its leadership problem came up to the surface when Law Hieng Ding, the MP for Sarikei was dropped as a federal minister after the 2004 parliamentary elections.

Initially Law declined to contest, but was persuaded with a promise that he would continue to be appointed a federal minister. Had Law declined to contest, there was every likelihood that the Sarikei seat might go to the Opposition. Law won with a bigger majority.

A young lady

But when George Chan, Supp chairman recommended his own man, Peter Chin, to the federal cabinet, Law was furious. He accused Chan of backtracking on his promise and threatened to challenge his leadership. There was a clear division in the party with Law supported by the majority of the Foochows in the Rajang Basin, while Chan had the Support of Supp branches in the northern region.

Supp branches in the Kuching and Sri Aman Divisions belong to another team, but they do not have a charismatic leader. I is believed that these branches have 'ganged up' with the branches in the Rajang Basin. But for now, the leadership crisis seems to have mellowed because of the election.

However, there are sparks of discontentment here and there. In Meradong and Sarikei, for instance, the members threaten to support the Opposition if the candidate selected to contest is not to their liking. Supp has recommended a young lady to contest much to the dismay of veteran politicians who have been waiting in the wings.

Similarly in Engkilili, the incumbent Toh Heng San who was dropped from being a candidate is very unhappy with the selection of the candidate. An outsider, Jonathan Krai Pilo replaces him. Krai's nomination makes many Supp members angry.

Even PPB members do not agree with the nomination, as they had hoped for their man, Jimmy Maja, to contest. The main reason why the Supp leadership chose Krai is that Krai, although coming from Simanggang, he has been loyal to Supp. His father, Michael Pilo, was the former state assemblyman for Sri Aman.

Supp may also lose the newly created state constituency of Opar, a predominantly Bidayuh stronghold. Again like in Engkilili, an outsider, a Selakau, has been nominated. Bidayuh leaders, especially from PPB in Opar, have openly expressed their displeasure and have threatened to support the Opposition. On hearing this, it is learnt that the chief minister had a discussion on the issue with them.

(Part two of this article will appear tomorrow.)

JOSEPH TAWIE was the former Press Liaison Officer of the Sarawak Police. He is the pro tem Information Chief of the yet to be registered Malaysian Dayak Congress .