During a talk on regional politics with a group of adult students early this week, one of them asked if the dispute over the Spratly Islands would undermine the cordial relationship between Malaysia and China.

It is widely known that the overlapping sovereignty claims to the islands have their origin in the substantial natural resources ranging from oil, natural gas to seafood. Given China's growing demands for energy in the next few decades as the country is developing by leaps and bounds, the anxieties of the Southeast Asian nations are perfectly understandable.

However, until and unless the regional countries involved, such as Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Brunei - all important members of Asean - resolve their differences and come to a common position vis à vis China, the Asian giant can afford to wait. So, the stalemate remains.

While the world's attention is on oil disputes in the Middle East and, to a lesser extent, in Southeast Asia, international tensions are quietly rising in the Arctic Ocean for the same reason: rich and huge oil reserves.

Worse, the potential conflict, should it break out, would involve the world's major powers and economies: Russia, the United States, Canada, Norway, Denmark and Iceland, the latter four being members of Nato.

A year ago, the United States Geological Survey released an assessment report, which estimates that more than one-fifth of the undiscovered oil and natural gas resources can be found in the Arctic Ocean.

The area north of the Arctic Circle may contain 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 90 billion barrels of oil, enough to make all the major economies salivate. Some energy experts have begun to describe the Arctic as ‘a second Middle East".

Who owns Arctic?

The question is: who owns the Arctic? Despite the received wisdom that the Ocean is a treasure shared by the world community, all the Arctic countries appear to think otherwise.

For one, Stephen Harper, the Canadian prime minister, announced last year that all the ships that used the Northwest Passage in the Arctic must report to the Canadian Coast Guard. Since the practice was discretionary prior to that, the new move is inevitably perceived to be an attempt by Ottawa to assert its jurisdiction over a vital part of the polar region.

The US, in particular, maintains that the territorial waters in the Arctic remain international in nature and demands that its northern neighbour adhere to the status quo.

The issue is fast becoming a geo-strategic competition as global warming has caused the arctic ice cap to melt, enabling access to the rich resources of oil, natural gas and precious minerals.

As sea levels rise, the Northwest Passage has the potential to become an immensely valuable sealane that could shorten the route between Tokyo and New York by as much as 7,000km using the Panama Canal .

The US, Canada, Russia, Denmark and Norway have all asserted their right to the Arctic Ocean, yet efforts to delineate the exact areas of control and territory on the continental shelves have come to naught. Moscow once hoisted a flag there, only to be dismissed by Washington and Ottawa as illegitimate.

While all these countries now agree to put the issue aside pending more research on the Ocean, Lee Willet, a marine studies expert, believes use of naval forces is essential to projecting influence and safeguarding interests there.

Since the world's energy needs are increasing drastically, any country that can stake a claim over the Arctic oil and gas is likely to become a major player in the years to come.

Not acknowledge by the UN

However, an Arctic drilling frenzy is almost certain to meet with strong resistance from environmentalists worried about the impact on what is still a near-pristine wilderness.

Furthermore, the race for the natural resources under the Arctic seabed, if badly handled, could trigger a flurry of territorial disputes and sharpen the differences between the major powers, especially the US and Russia, the two erstwhile arch Cold Warriors.

So far, all the claims laid by the Arctic countries are yet to be acknowledged by the United Nations. Should they be put up for a debate and discussion, China, France and the United Kingdom are not likely to sit idly by.

In May 2009, the Kremlin issued a document, warning that Russia could face wars on its borders in the near future because of energy control from the Middle East to the Arctic.

Meanwhile, Canada continues with its annual military exercise, Nanook, to demonstrate its sovereignty over the northern territories.

Given that Russia is pitted against the Nato countries in the Arctic dispute, it does make the Spratly Islands look like a child's play indeed.