One man whose political fate could hinge on the outcome of the coming by-elections in Kedah, will be standing in the way of opposition party PAS' efforts to retain the two seats.

The Pendang parliamentary seat and Anak Bukit state seat by-elections on July 18 will not only pit the expected Umno candidates against PAS candidates; it will also see the 58-year-old Umno vice-president Muhammad Muhd Taib fighting for his political life.

The post-Mahathir Umno leadership landscape could be very different and for Muhammad to be a part of it, he, as the party's election coordinator, needs to deliver these seats to Umno.

In the last general election, PAS wrestled both seats from Umno through its late president Fadzil Noor. The seats were left vacant following the death of Fadzil on June 23.

Both these seats have traditionally been Umno's. PAS only managed to win them in 1999 due to the prevailing political climate then, which was very much influenced by the sacking of Anwar Ibrahim and the reformasi movement that soon followed.

Though the political scenario in the country has swung to the favour of the ruling coalition Barisan Nasional since then, PAS is still hoping that it can retain both seats.

One factor the party will be relying on toward this end is 'sympathy' votes. PAS is hoping that there will be voters who want it to retain the Anak Bukit state seat to continue to deny BN a two-third majority in the state assembly.

PAS also want these seats to show that it is as the party leaders have often said capable of realising its dream of forming a state government in Kedah in the next general election due in 2004.

Not a spent force

However, the timing of the by-elections could be detrimental to PAS. It comes at a time when Umno is determined to show that it has regained its lost grounds, and more importantly at a time when party leaders such as Muhammad want to prove their capability in carrying heavier responsibilities after the retirement of party president and Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad next October.

Mahathir's exit from politics will create openings for leaders like Muhammad and he will want to take full advantage of the by-elections to remind the party grassroots as well as other leaders that he is not a spent force.

With deputy president Abdullah Ahmad Badawi established as the chosen successor to Mahathir, the jostle is now for the post he will be vacating. By party tradition, the No 2 spot goes to one of the three vice-presidents down the line.

Of the three, Muhammad is the only one without any ministerial post. The other two, Najib Abdul Razak and Muhyiddin Yassin, are the defence and domestic trade ministers respectively.

While Najib and Muyhiddin have been able to stay on in the public spotlight, thanks to their ministerial functions, Muhammad is obviously handicapped by his lack of governmental responsibilities.

He has been in cold storage where government posts are concerned since his reputation was tainted with charges in Australia in 1997 for failing to declare foreign currencies worth A$1.26 million (then RM2.4 million) at Brisbane airport in December 1996. He also faced charges at home for failing to declare his assets.

Though he was acquitted of both charges in 1998, he has had to give up his Selangor menteri besar post which he had held since 1986 and was eventually suspended from his vice-president post in the party then.

However, he reappeared in the party leadership by coming out second behind Najib in the battle for the three elected vice-president posts during the 2000 Umno election.

At present, he only has his party duties to perform and the Kedah by-elections next week could not have come at a better time for him.

Enhancing reputation

Being the party's election coordinator for the by-elections, he will have a major influence on the campaign strategy as well as other election-related matters. He will have direct contact with the voters and the people on the ground.

If he can deliver these two seats to Umno, Muhammad's reputation will definitely be enhanced, more so as they are in Mahathir's home state.

Being an election coordinator is nothing new to the former Selangor menteri besar. He had the same responsibility in the Indera Kayangan by-election in Perlis in January this year as well as the following Ketari by-election in Pahang in March.

When the BN candidate from coalition partner MCA proved to be the eventual winner in Indera Kayangan, Mahathir personally thanked Muhammad for the victory. Muhammad's role in ensuring another component partner's (Gerakan) victory in Ketari also drew praises from all quarters in the BN.

By delivering the Kedah seats to Umno, Muhammad will ensure that his name is also on the list of contenders for the deputy president's post.

Though he may face a tough fight from Najib who is touted as the most likely candidate, he should not be ruled out, especially if there is to be a contest for the post in the Umno annual general assembly next year.

Home support

There is no doubt that Muhammad has the support of his home state Selangor, which contributes to about 30 percent of the delegates, who are empowered to vote in the party elections.

Umno watchers are also of the opinion that Muhammad's party achievements in the past years will see that he gets the support of delegates from Kelantan, Perlis and Kedah, giving him a sizeable block of votes.

Of course, all these calculations will become academic if there is no contest for the post in the first place, should Abdullah as the new party leader in October appoint one of the three vice-presidents which to all appearances is likely to be Najib as his second in command.

However, Abdullah has said that he will make a decision on his deputy after the by-elections, making these polls a crucial platform for Muhammad to make a last-minute entry into the race.

One other factor that Muhammad has on his side is that the party leaders have never chosen a top vice-president to be a deputy since the days of the late Abdul Razak Hussein, the second party chief and prime minister.

Even in the event Muhammad is overlooked for the deputy post, whatever credibility he gains from the Pendang and Anak Bukit by-elections will go a long way in ensuring that he at least retains his vice-president post, and perhaps get a ministerial post under the new prime minister.