Asia's fowl mess
China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Pakistan, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia: infected. False alarm in Hamburg. Australian authorities search and destroy customs declared or smuggled foodstuff, plants and birds. People are dying in Vietnam and Thailand. Chickens, too, by the millions, either of disease or of culling to prevent the spread of disease.
Once again, avian influenza is causing havoc in Asia. As the World Health Organisation (WHO) warned against creating panic, experts rushed to meet in Rome to find ways to stop the virus from mutating and spreading to general populations. And as governments and health officials grapple with this latest outbreak, one fact is already well known: Asia is a breeding ground for animal-borne disease that can spread to humans.
A big problem is tendencies by Asian governments, notably China, Thailand and Indonesia, to block efficient communication about outbreaks of new diseases, preventing early action against epidemics. Lack of transparency only aggravates the basic problem of how these diseases get started.
Asia has the world's most disgusting social organisation and management of its live-animal and bird markets. There is wanton abuse of animal rights and the general environmental conditions at these markets are persistently filthy. All hygiene aspects are seriously questionable. Health practices are poorly regulated. Where regulations exist, corrupt officials often ignore them. On any given day, these markets - and the farms where live birds are bred and where agricultural practices are equally foul - possess all the natural conditions for incubating and delivering deadly diseases.
True, deadly strains of bird flu have arisen in Europe as well as Asia. In 1918-19, influenza pandemics originating from avian strains in Spain killed 40-50 million people worldwide. But the "Spanish flu" had in fact begun in the crowded World War I army camps around Etaples in northern France, which on any single day held about 100,000 soldiers. For food, the soldiers raised chickens, geese and pigs. Such conditions mirror what naturally occurs in Asia. Scientists are convinced that the 1957 Asian flu and 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemics originated in Asia and crossed the globe.
China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Pakistan, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia: infected. False alarm in Hamburg. Australian authorities search and destroy customs declared or smuggled foodstuff, plants and birds. People are dying in Vietnam and Thailand. Chickens, too, by the millions, either of disease or of culling to prevent the spread of disease.
Once again, avian influenza is causing havoc in Asia. As the World Health Organisation (WHO) warned against creating panic, experts rushed to meet in Rome to find ways to stop the virus from mutating and spreading to general populations. And as governments and health officials grapple with this latest outbreak, one fact is already well known: Asia is a breeding ground for animal-borne disease that can spread to humans.
A big problem is tendencies by Asian governments, notably China, Thailand and Indonesia, to block efficient communication about outbreaks of new diseases, preventing early action against epidemics. Lack of transparency only aggravates the basic problem of how these diseases get started.
Asia has the world's most disgusting social organisation and management of its live-animal and bird markets. There is wanton abuse of animal rights and the general environmental conditions at these markets are persistently filthy. All hygiene aspects are seriously questionable. Health practices are poorly regulated. Where regulations exist, corrupt officials often ignore them. On any given day, these markets - and the farms where live birds are bred and where agricultural practices are equally foul - possess all the natural conditions for incubating and delivering deadly diseases.
True, deadly strains of bird flu have arisen in Europe as well as Asia. In 1918-19, influenza pandemics originating from avian strains in Spain killed 40-50 million people worldwide. But the "Spanish flu" had in fact begun in the crowded World War I army camps around Etaples in northern France, which on any single day held about 100,000 soldiers. For food, the soldiers raised chickens, geese and pigs. Such conditions mirror what naturally occurs in Asia. Scientists are convinced that the 1957 Asian flu and 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemics originated in Asia and crossed the globe.
Rising demand
Another problem: Asian appetite for different foods has grown phenomenally, corresponding to rises in personal disposable income. Also, growth in population and urbanisation have led to rising demand for more diversified diets that invariably include more meat, eggs and dairy products. Subsequently agriculture has undergone fundamental changes. Back-yard farms have become industrial-sized fowl breeders in the most disgustingly cramped habitats.
Yet, Asian governments have ignored long-held warnings. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), has warned: "When you have that many animals in one spot, you are likely to get into trouble with disease." The FAO estimates that per capita consumption of meat, eggs, milk and other dairy products has grown about 50 percent in the developing world from the early 1970s to the early 1990s. That has led to huge increases in breeding animal herds, with shorter production cycles and greater animal densities. In the past 25 years, chickens, pigs and ducks populations grew exponentially. Add all this to Asians' fondness for shopping at live-animal markets and the chances for diseases developing suddenly multiply, notes the British journal New Scientist .
John Oxford, a flu expert at the Queen Mary School of Medicine in London, says climate also plays a role: "Respiratory viruses, like orchids, seem to like the Asian climate because they have influenza viruses nearly all year' round. It's not so seasonal as elsewhere in the world." Moreover, the avian influenza strains find havens in populations of waterfowls and migratory birds, which flee seasons from as far as India and Siberia.
That's not all. With increased travel and migration, different populations can come into direct contact with previously localised human pathogens, says Dr Aristachos Seiminis, director of the WHO/Mediterranean Zones (animal diseases) control center. Seiminis adds that encroachment could well become a primary factor in turning what is at this time an epidemic into a global pandemic.
Structural reforms
Asian governments can't relax and hope the worst of the bird flu blows over quickly. Chances are, like the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars, another disease believed to have originated in the Asian live-animal industry) and Aids, bird flu will remain virulent in one form or another, hidden, and will be able to return easily at any time. Only the next time could be far worse if governments squander resources needed for research and for biosecurity that would make these countries better prepared to respond, especially if these viruses can diffuse to humans.
Asia must introduce long overdue structural reforms in agricultural practices. It won't, because so much of its domestic politics is tied up with feudal politics. It must also rethink creeping urbanisation of populations that live in close proximity with live-bird trade in grubby local markets. But land in Asia is scarce and fetches a price premium, forcing urban planners to target cramped living.
If these diseases keep flaring up, as likely, the economic impact will be far worse for the Asian and the world economies. Asia's agricultural export industry is already suffering from this latest outbreak, let alone from Sars. The travel industry, having suffered immeasurably through the "war on terrorism" and then Sars, could now well have to deal with Asia's fowl mess And Asia's tourism industry, which boasts of its variety of foods, could be in trouble if locals and tourists stay away, pushing tourism revenue towards red days again.
MANJIT BHATIA is managing director of AsiaRisk - a political and economic research and risk analysis consultancy in Australia. The writer specialises in international economics and politics and the Asia-Pacific region.
