Former Malaysian Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad in an inaugural address on "Malaysia in the next millennium: Challenge for the Next Generation" in 1997 said, "Wars between nations will not be possible. In fact in a borderless world there will be no nation and no national loyalties to be involved in and to fight for. But there would be a lot of violence due to minor misunderstanding over issues, interpretations, esoteric ideologies and new group loyalties not based on race or nations. Such violence will be endemic and extremely impossible to put an end to".

He added, "But proxy wars were fought all over the world as one bloc instigated a third world nation to go to war against another third world nation believed to be supporting or was supported by the other bloc. Proxy wars were not the only source of violence. Today, terrorist gangs threatened the peace and stability of many countries".

Today, world peace and innocent human lives are being threatened by the emergence of terrorism, not mentioning the increasing incidences of natural disasters and epidemic diseases in this borderless age. The world had witnessed the Red Army, al-Qaeda and splinter groups, the IRA and other assorted Muslim fanatics indulging in senseless violence, bombing attacks, killing and destroying property disrupting peace and economic developments (i.e. recent Bali attacks).

In the infamous incidents on 9/11, the al-Qaeda terrorist group used armed force, both to gain control of planes and using them as missiles against the targets in the Pentagon and the World Trade Centre deliberately modeled after Pearl Harbor. As such, they justified the responding attack on the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

"Indeed, terrorists almost always commit aggression when they act since terrorism is precisely the use of random violenceespecially killing forceagainst civilians, with the intent of spreading fear throughout a population, hoping this fear will advance a political objective" (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy). Unlike conventional wars, the "war" against terrorism is much harder and protracted, involving much intelligence-gathering and constantly requiring alertness by governments as aggressors in terrorism strike at strategic targets when the government is most vulnerable or complacent.

Case study of regional peace: Role of Asean

It had been 38 years ago the founders signed the Bangkok Declaration in Thailand in 1967 that Asean was formed. It was in 1995 that the 5th Asean Heads of Government met in Bangkok inviting Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar to become full members. The combined total population of Asean was slightly more than 411 million with share of global trade in excess of only US$498 billion. Their GDPs combined exceeded US$448 billion, a credible figure compared to the other major Asian nations like China, Japan and Korea. Today, Asean's population is estimated about US$530 million and trade between them grew about US$50 billion (RM188 billion) last year from 2003. Investments have also been held steady at about US$2 billion per year for the past few years. Today, it has become a desirable investment destination.

"Major newspapers with screaming headlines splashed across the region: Asian countries will go to war with each other over the Spratly islands dispute. China lay claims that South China Sea belongs to China along with all the islands, reefs and minerals in the sea. China builds a series of shelters for Chinese fishermen. Asean countries become agitated. Asean looks to Japan but she maintains neutral stand. United States offers help and Asean countries accepted. The Pacific fleet begins patrolling South China Sea. Clashes occur between Chinese Navy and the United States. United Nations appeals for countries to settle dispute through negotiations. China declares war on the United States and a full scale war breaking out. A nuclear bomb is dropped in Beijing. China retaliates by firing missiles at the west coast of America but an accident occurred. One warhead fell near Tokyo".

This scenario, narrated by Dr Mahathir outlined his figment of imagination, describing the possible future situation that could affect Asia. He was speaking at a forum with theme, "The Future of Asia" at the International Conference held in Tokyo on May 20, 1995. The scenario is of course highly improbable and perhaps, befitting a fictional war novel. "But unless there is a major war either between the Asian nations themselves or between Asian and non-Asian nations, the chances are good that these countries (Asean) are going to make it big," Dr. Mahathir concluded. He maintained that Asean must determine its own destiny and not left to "outside forces".

Ironically, economic development was not on the minds of the founding fathers of Asean. Rather it was their search for a mechanism to resolve political and sometimes military confrontations between them which provided the basis for the establishment of Asean. As political analyst James Wong Wing On wrote, "Asean was founded as a non-communist, if not anti-communist grouping, faced with a collective fear for the Domino Theory as Indo-China's wars of national liberation were being waged. Also in the larger strategic context of the East-West Cold War as well as the later triangular contest among the West, the former Soviet Union and China. Hence, Asean was united by a common fear."

In contrast to the fictional scenario painted earlier, Asean in recent times has succeeded in reducing the kind of conflicts frequently faced by neighbours by not allowing the conflicts to flare up and get out of control. There are many illustrated examples and instances to show that even as these problems exist, there has been no open confrontations but through negotiations instead.

Mahathir presenting his thoughts on "EAEC can speed up region's growth," (to the foreign correspondents Club in Hong Kong in 1992) remarked, (quote) "It is my considered opinion that Asean, as a regional organization has played a significant role in the growth of the member countries. The Asean region is therefore peaceful and stable. Asean has succeeded in creating these essentials of peace and stability for growth in the region." He added, "Asean is a regional forum with credibility in the world's economic, social and political affairs, evident by the fact that even outsiders evinced a keen desire to join it".

Openly expressing fears that others outside the region were attempting to dictate the peace and direction of Asia-Pacific affairs, possibly in the Asean Regional Forum (ARF) or in Apec process, Mahathir contended that Asean should take a common stand to prevent outsiders from dividing the Asian countries of the Pacific and becoming a pawn in global politics ostensibly in the interest of regional security.

Hence, Asean should speedily increase its membership to ten, as member countries on its own could not do much to change the world. The former prime minister was confident that Asean as a combined whole could achieve much and might make a difference by insisting to super powers that justice and equity can only contribute to international peace, security and prosperity. He considered that Asean's collective role against certain weapon testing by nuclear powers and gradual nuclear disarmament was crucial to Southeast Asia as a nuclear free zone.

China's future role: Framework for peace

Many political observers argued the re-emergence of China and her role within the framework for regional peace is therefore, a logical and desirable direction in achieving the greatest amount of good for the greatest number of people.

Peaceful cooperation and economic development must be part and parcel of new approaches and directions in the Pacific region encompasses all countries in Asia and islands which support almost one-half of the world's population.

A staunched proponent of China's future positive role in the Asean region, Mahathir in 1995, addressing the theme, "Malaysia and China in the 21st Century" said: (quote) "Nobody nowadays seriously entertains the view that China is bent on exporting its communist ideology". He asked, "How many times in the past has China sent its armed forces across borders to invade and occupy? On the other hand, how many times has China been attacked and parts of its land been occupied? "For these and other very good reasons, Malaysia refuses to see China as a military or political threat. China in turn should continue to be deeply committed to the perpetuation of a peaceful, regional security environment," he said.

It is safe to postulate that surely China wants this for its own national political and economic interests. Again, Mahathir's speech on "China a great opportunity, not a threat" views that China like Malaysia believes that peace is a prerequisite for its own development and this conviction would unlikely change in the foreseeable future. This view is reinforced by the thinking of some political analysts that China is becoming increasingly self-confident in economic terms and also concerned with its border security. They rationalized that China is also concerned on the potential revival of Japanese militarism and the right-wing shift in American domestic politics and its foreign policies. While others believed that for various other reasons relating to China-US geopolitical and geo-economic forces, may compel China to take on a more strategic role and approach in the Asean region.

In his usual sarcasm against unfounded fears expressed by some Western powers on China becoming a military threat, the former Malaysian prime minister quipped, "Those who talk of military conquests and colonial territories are living in the past."

War and peace Part 1

STANLEY KOH is attached to the Research and Planning Department of the MCA headquarters in Kuala Lumpur.