Most gullible Malaysians generally accept even the most implausible statistical claims represented in all types of formats. Often without question and quite oblivious to the fact truth that statistics do lie.

In fact, statistics have a bad reputation not because it may be wrong or unintentionally tabulated but because of unscrupulous political masters with a hidden agenda.

The famous aphorism: "There are three kinds of lies, damned lies and statistics," usually attributed to Mark Twain or Benjamin Disraeli is evidently relevant by the fact that a useful little book, entitled, " How to Lie With Statistics " is still in print after more than 40 years.

We are familiar with some politicians using statistics to manipulate racial emotions or using numbers to somehow distort the truth to achieve certain political mileage. Hence, possibly there are only two types of statistics to be dealt with. One type which researchers look up and the other "manipulated" type of statistics that bureaucrat experts spin out at the directives of political masters.

Quite contrary to romantic idealism made famous with the saying that "love means never having to say you're sorry," in the world of statistics, it can be manipulated that "statistics mean never having to say you're certain."

There are many pitfalls in the world of statistics. Definitions to measurement, methodology and interpretations can be manipulated to hide the truth, shaped and re-adjusted for self-serving political elites while some carry half-truths and falsehood. Aldous Huxley correctly put it, "In the spider web of statistics, many a truth is strangled." Indeed, "facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable," cited Laurence Peter.

Cynthia Crossen, a reporter and editor for the Wall Street Journal warned Americans that they are not just surrounded by "bad" information but that Americans are being defrauded by information that has been distorted to serve selfish purposes, statistics, especially, are used to "mis-educate" the public. Illustrating an example, Quaker oats sponsored studies that claim to show that oatmeal reduces cholesterol and the risk of heart attack and inveighs against studies indicating it has no such effect. (Source: US Library Journal)

American Joel Best, professor and chair of sociology and criminal justice at the University of Delaware, in his best-selling publication, " In Damned Lies and Statistics " expounded how statistics are manipulated, mismanaged, misrepresented and massaged by officials and other powerful groups to promote their agendas. Doesn't this sound too familiar to Malaysians?

Think!

Malaysians should think for themselves rather than take as gospel every statistic presented to them. We should examine how and why "bad" statistics emerge, spread and come to shape policy debates. We have our fair share of "stat wars", or disputes over social and economic statistics among various experts.

"Doubtful or bad" statistics do live on and they take on lives of their own particularly under a government that is perceived to be lacking credibility and integrity. Shrouded with secrecy and lacking transparency, like other occult techniques of divination, the statistical method can become a private jargon deliberately contrived to obscure its method from non-practitioners. The media keeps repeating the manipulated and misrepresented statistics, the graduate student inserts the garbled statistic into the dissertation prospectus, unthinking academicians parrot it often and soon, the "lying statistics become the truth".

Blog writer and critic Sam Sachdev in his brief guide to statistical manipulation in the publication, Monthly Science magazine, wrote: "The first and probably most important example of how statistics are used improperly is the difference between what, usually, the media considers worthy and what statisticians, psychologists and others who professionally use statistics do. The president's approval rating, for instance, is a widely reported statistic. This statistic, however, is only likely to be reported if it suddenly rises or falls from its expected pattern."

Tom Smith, a statistician at the University of Chicago also agreed and explained why this is particularly unreliable, saying, "The media considers (a statistic) newsworthy because it is different from what the most recent figures were. But numbers that are most unusual are likely to be the most prone error. It's a systematic problem like the media are attracted to results that are the least reliable."

But statistics do have a scientific role in our modern technological world. Contributions to research studies and data analysis, the role of statisticians have contributed tremendous excellence in its application particularly toward scientific developments. But not everybody completely trust statisticians especially under the influence of powerful political elites in government. A sarcastic remark quipped "a statistician is a person who stands in a bucket of ice water, sticks his head in an oven and says, "On average, I feel fine!"

"Figures don't lie, liars figure," Mark Twain warned. Political agenda can use statistics by presenting a limited amount of data that helps them to support a desired conclusion. Statistics or numerical figures in relation to economics or social issues or merely proving to others that one has "purportedly" made a loss in the sale of equity shares can be used to distort factual truth.

One of the common mistakes, when media reports statistics, is confusing a correlation for causation, according to Cooper Holmes, author of publication entitled, The Honest truth About Lying with Statistics . A correlation, then, is only the statistician relationship between two events. It doesn't mean that one event is causing the other. He cited a common sense example to help explain. "There is, in spring and summer, a high correlation between newly planted trees and the rate of the growth of grass around them. The trees, of course, aren't causing the grass to grow at a fast rate. The cause, obviously, is water and sunshine, not the trees."

Born bad

Our government bureaucrats love to release statistics from various ministries. "An average eight students are arrested on a daily basis for various crimes," the Internal Security Ministry told Dewan Rakyat. Another example: "The parliamentary secretary to the Health Ministry told Parliament that 18 HIV cases are reported daily and 7,500 have died in Malaysia battling the disease." Or the disclosure -"The Health Ministry estimated an average of seven suicides a day nationwide."

Malaysians rarely ask questions of this sort when they encounter statistics. Most of the time, they simply accept statistics without question. Some statistics are born "bad" - they are not much good from the start, because they are based on nothing more than guesses or dubious data. Other statistics mutate, they become bad after being mangled (i.e. shifting definitions in tabulating statistics with a political agenda).

Statistics can become tools used to justify particular political cum policy-making purposes, for example, disputed statistics relating to the New Economic Policy: on racial equity ownerships that is claimed by certain quarters of an unchanging or static "numerical 18.9 per cent (owned by Bumiputeras) since 2004.

We should catch up with the Americans, as author Joel Best wisely advised his fellow Americans who read and listen to the news to understand or rely on statistical information to also understand social problems (looking beyond the statistics). He unraveled many fascinating examples of the use, misuse and abuse of statistical information not only by the government but also powerful commercial corporations in the field of advertisement and sale of products.

Statistics have often been misused. While in some cases, the misuse was accidental. In others, it was purposeful and for the gain of the perpetrator especially to a gullible populace. Discarding unfavorable data, deliberate loaded questions (in survey), overgeneralisation, biased samples, misreporting and misinterpretation (intentionally or unintentionally) constitute "massaging the figures", a tip of the iceberg of statistical manipulations.

Are statisticians normal? A shared joke illustrated an answer and it goes like this: An engineer, a physicist, and a statistician were moose hunting in northern Canada. After a short walk through the marshes they spotted a huge moose 150 metres away. The engineer raised his shot gun and fired at the moose. A puff of dust showed that the bullet landed three metres to the right of the moose. The physicist, realising that there was a substantial breeze that the engineer did not account for, aimed to the left of the moose and fired. The bullet landed three metres to the left of the moose. The statistician jumped up and down and screamed, "We got him! We got him!"

Unsurprisingly, an increasing number of political leaders, in desperation to inspire confidence from voters, give plenty of statistics. It does not matter that they should be accurate, or even intelligible, as long as there are enough of them. More like a drunk using a lamp post, more for support than enlightenment.

A word of advice from American Blogcritics writer Sam Sachdev: "The next time, then, you see an advertisement or hear about an approval rating, or any statistics in the media, you should understand that there's probably much more about the statistic than either the statistic can tell you or the presenter of the statistic wants, or knows, to reveal."

STANLEY KOH is a Buddhist monk and works for a local think-tank.