This is an open letter to the government, its civil servants, directors, lawmakers, the management of all public transportation companies, and all users of public transportation in Malaysia.

Brace yourselves. You have about six months to prepare.

Brace yourselves for significant new challenges ahead. Brace yourself for greater demand for public transportation. Brace yourself for longer waits for trains and buses. Brace yourself for increased traffic congestion and congestion.

Yes, you heard it here first. Brace yourselves and prepare, because in six months, everything may change.

Perhaps you are wondering what I'm talking about this time? Well, I haven't been inspired by the words of any writer or blogger. This is not a plagiarized work or an attempt to pass off someone else's ideas as my own. The following article is based on my observations and the situation described may or may not happen.

In six months, we will see.

Today, Malaysians are enjoying (somewhat) the happiness of an extra-festive season. In fact, this extra-festive season will probably be the last happy festive season that Malaysians will experience for many years. Festive season 2007-8 began earlier than normal, with the 50th anniversary of Malaysian independence. This happy celebration was followed by the onset of Ramadan in mid September. Ramadan will of course culminate in the Hari Raya Aidilfitri celebrations from mid-October onwards. After Hari Raya Aidilfitri there will be Deepavali in November, and then a short time for a rest before the arrival of Hari Raya Qurban and Christmas in December. In January, once we recover from the New Year we will be getting ready for the Thaipusam festival. Finally, Chinese New Year will come in early February 2008.

So, why should Malaysians make an effort for have a truly happy festive season in 2007-2008? The answer is because after March 2008, it is very likely that life in Malaysia is going to change.

Allow me to explain. During the early days of Ramadan, people have already started to lament about the increase in prices. This in itself would be normal during any period of high demand, but this time, prices will stay up.

Civil servants received a wage increase, and the MTUC has gone on record asking for higher basic wages and a minimum wage for Malaysians. Costs of raw materials for many products are increasing regularly. The price of oil is going up, reaching a peak of over US$80 per barrel. The price of wheat is at its highest ever, following poor harvests in Canada and Australia. We also know that tolls on six expressways may increase on January 1, 2008.

Most importantly, the government has made it clear that they cannot sustain the existing subsidies on Natural Gas and LPG for a very long time. Energy, Water, and Communications Minister Dr Lim Keng Yaik has said that Petronas is "screaming" for a reduction in the subsidy. This will result in an increase in gas prices. Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak has stated that the government has promised not to increase the price of petrol in 2007, but has made no such promise for gas. Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has indicated that the government is looking into increasing prices for gas.

It will be painful

So we can accept it as pretty much given that prices for gas and petrol will have to increase at some point, and that point will be coming soon. Right now we do not know how much the increase will be. But I predict that the increase will take place some time in March 2008. I am also predicting that when it comes, it will be painful.

Why March 2008? The answer is, because of the extended festive season. We all know that plans for an election were just short of being confirmed in mid-2007. We know that Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and the Barisan Nasional want to seek a fresh mandate from the Malaysian people. We also know that the election will be unlikely to take place during the festive season, and as stated above, this festive season is an extended one. We also know that the last time petrol and gas prices were increased was in February 2006.

So enjoy this festive season, for many reasons. Enjoy it because you will be celebrating the multicultural, multireligious and multiethnic nation that is Malaysia. Enjoy it because everyone loves good food and fine clothes and festivals. Enjoy it because we can anticipate a lot of goodies from the government. They will be introduced as part of the festivals, but of course the government is hoping that Malaysians will remember these goodies during the next election.

After Chinese New Year, the government will likely dissolve Parliament and call for elections. Once the government has achieved the fresh mandate from the people, they will feel secure enough to increase petrol and gas prices.

As a result of the increase in petrol prices and gas prices, there will be a gradual increase in prices throughout the country. Since our demand for petrol and gas are very inelastic, most people will not be able to find substitutes. This means that more people will be forced to pay the higher prices.

There will be some people who will switch from driving cars to driving motorcycles. Others will switch to using public transportation. However, if the government and the bus companies do not work together to prepare for this increase, the result will be disaster. The increasing number of passengers will overwhelm the existing systems. There will simply not be enough buses and trains and taxis on the road to meet the needs of these passengers.

That is why it is very important that the government, its civil servants, the lawmakers, the management of the bus and rail companies, and the people who use public transport start working on this now.

The future scenario

We need to increase the supply of public transport in order to meet the increase in demand that is predicted to arrive in March 2008.

Unfortunately, we cannot build LRT lines fast enough. So, the only way we will be able to improve on public transportation will be to improve existing operations and services. But even this will be tough. KTM Komuter will need more trains, and these trains will need to be longer. Services will also have to operate at higher frequencies. KL Monorail will need to expand to longer trains and operate at higher frequencies as well. Building all of this infrastructure will take time.

In the interim, we will have to rely on buses. RapidKL will have to introduce more bus routes, especially express buses, and increase frequency of service. This can be accomplished quickly through bus lanes on major roads. There will also be a need for more rapid transit lines. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems will have to be implemented on the largest roads. This will be the fastest and cheapest way to build rapid transit and make it ready in time for the large increase in passengers.

In addition, improvements to the regulation of public transportation will be desperately needed. There will have to be a consolidation of bus companies, to provide improved service to meet the increased number of passengers.

The days of the bus companies acting as profit-oriented business and treating drivers as independent subcontractors will have to come to an end. The focus will have to be on expansion of service and improving quality of service, and creating a complete transit network, rather than profits for individual companies.

If the government, the companies, and the people are not prepared, bus and train services will not be ready. People will have no choice except to absorb the higher prices. Cost of living will increase and spending and economic growth will decrease.

This is the scenario that we will face in the near future.

But if the government, the companies and the people start working together now, we can build better service and be prepared for the increase in demand. The first step, as I have said again and again, is to change how the government manages and regulates public transportation. Once this is done, existing services can be reorganized. When resources are allocated properly, then the government will be able to invest in public transportation.

The shock of higher prices is tough now, but it will become painful in the near future. If we do not prepare now, we will have no choice but to bear this pain.

Will we be ready?

MOAZ YUSUF AHMAD, a regular user of public transport, is deeply concerned that government plans to encourage the use of public transport will ultimately fail because of poor planning and lack of support from the public.