The 13th Asean Summit in Singapore next week will be closely watched by many as the leaders of the Southeast Asian grouping are about to endorse the Asean Charter, signifying their desire for a more integrated community of trade and business.

The regional bloc is seeking to redefine its role and relevance in the drastically changed international environment, especially in relation to its important trading partners.

Knowing that none of the major powers: the US, Japan, China, India and Russia, could be pushed out of the region, Asean began to embrace them all in the aftermath of the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s. The development over the last decade has however indicated that the region will continue to be a theatre of diplomatic competition for two giants: the US and China.

Although it is indisputable that Beijing's charm offensives in Southeast Asia have borne fruit, evidenced by the vastly increased trade volumes between China and the region, the latter nevertheless sees the US as in a better position to safeguard its interests for sometime to come. While certain elements of the US foreign policy have indeed alienated the Asean populaces, the ruling elites of the respective countries cannot be more pragmatic. After all, Asean ranked as the US' fourth largest global trading partner in 2005, and American direct investment is only second to that of the Japanese in the region.

Moreover, if there is ever a power that can ensure the security environment across Asia, it has to be only one: the US. There may have been a lot of speculations about the rise of China as a political, economic and military power to rival America in recent years, much like the illusion of "Wither the US in Southeast Asia" following Washington's ignominious withdrawal from Vietnam in the 1970s and the "emergence" of Japan as an economic superpower in the 1980s, these talks remain pretty much as what they really are: speculations.

And the Chinese have not lost sight of these realities. On the contrary, Chinese experts acknowledge US presence in Southeast Asia much more readily than the so-called analysts in the region, whose political or intellectual servitude towards Beijing only serves to embarrass the Chinese sometimes. If a Southeast Asian finds his/her blog blocked by the Chinese authorities, while still singing the Communist Party's praises, how serious will his/her views be taken by mainland Chinese? It is like sticking one's warm face on the cold buttocks.

Favourable decisions by Washington

In my recent visit to Beijing, Xie Jing, a friend of mine who graduated as an economist from the prestigious London School of Economics and now works in a US-Chinese joint venture company, shared with me some of his observations in regard to the latest development in the US-Asean relations.

According to him, further involvement by the US into economic issues in Southeast Asia in the near future is a certainty, and there have been notable efforts by Washington to safeguard the interests of American producers in the region. Xie does not rule out the possibility of new import duties on Southeast Asian textile and agricultural products to American markets. Such decisions are informed by the priority of ecological standards, concern over the widespread use of child labour in certain Asean countries (which is a valid concern no doubt), protection of intellectual property rights, and democratic legal compliance, and there are plans to further undermine Asian products competitiveness through avoiding new tax-free agreements and substantially short-listing products and services under the General System of Preferences (GSP).

In my friend's opinion, it is highly likely that favourable decisions will be made by Washington towards Southeast Asian countries that follow White House's ideas in the region, and Asean's unilateral trade and economic dependence on the US could be used to push for some kind of "democratic agenda" and greater defence and military cooperation.

Although I do not fully share my friend's observations, that the US, much like China, has been seeking to influence Asean's foreign as well as domestic policy for the sake of geopolitical interests is nothing new.

President George W Bush, hosting the visiting Vietnamese President Nguyen Minh Triet in June this year, insisted that bilateral trade and capital investment between the two countries would depend on Hanoi's commitment to upholding constitutional rights and political freedom.

As for Thailand, US pressure is exercised through the issue of intellectual property rights. Earlier this year, the US Trade Representative Office put Thailand on its Priority Watch List following Bangkok's decision to break the patent of the expensive Efavirenz, an important drug for people living with HIV/Aids.

Look for new partners

Meanwhile, revoking GSP privileges from the country is not ruled out. Given that most of the Thai products to the US consist of jewelry, electronics, automobile spare parts, textiles and others, such a move could have severe impact on Thailand's economy.

Hence, although Asean countries have been wise to take a level-headed approach in dealing with the extra-regional powers, they need to look for new partners and to strengthen relations with other nations and regional blocs in order to avoid becoming too dependent on the sole superpower, either economically or militarily. Surprisingly, my friend in Beijing opines Asean should also pursue a region-wide political and economic agenda that can guarantee its relative independence of China, otherwise the region of Southeast Asia will continue to exist in the shadow of the two giants for a foreseeable future.

However, judging from the disparate interests and divergent concerns of the Asean countries, not to mention the inchoateness of the regional grouping manifest through the collective failure to address issues ranging from Burma to general human rights violations, the dream of a more integrated Southeast Asia with concerted strategies will remain illusive at best.

By the way, are Malaysia and Singapore not being caught in a jurisdictional tussle over Pulau Batu Puteh/Pedra Branca?