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COMMENT | Pisa report shows Malaysia's 2030 talent target unreachable without urgent action
COMMENT | The Institute of Strategic Analysis and Policy Research (Insap) is alarmed by findings from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)'s Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa) 2025 country note for Malaysia.
Our conclusion is that the mathematics result reflects how Malaysia’s education policy has been designed since 2023, and that achieving the government's own 2030 target is only possible if three instruments are put in place now.
The 2025 report found that Malaysia's 15-year-olds scored 397 in mathematics, 393 in reading and 419 in science.
Mathematics has fallen in both cycles since 2018, by 43 points in total, and is now below the 404 recorded in Malaysia's first participation, the Pisa 2009+ round administered in 2010.
Sixty-five percent of students fell short of Level 2, the baseline for applying mathematics to an everyday situation, against 35 percent across the OECD. Students at Level 5 or 6, the level the OECD associates with modelling complex situations mathematically, were 0.6 percent of the cohort, against 8 percent.
Failed education policy design
The Education Ministry’s own analysis of the...
COMMENT | The Institute of Strategic Analysis and Policy Research (Insap) is alarmed by findings from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)'s Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa) 2025 country note for Malaysia.
Our conclusion is that the mathematics result reflects how Malaysia’s education policy has been designed since 2023, and that achieving the government's own 2030 target is only possible if three instruments are put in place now.
The 2025 report found that Malaysia's 15-year-olds scored 397 in mathematics, 393 in reading and 419 in science.
Mathematics has fallen in both cycles since 2018, by 43 points in total, and is now below the 404 recorded in Malaysia's first participation, the Pisa 2009+ round administered in 2010.
Sixty-five percent of students fell short of Level 2, the baseline for applying mathematics to an everyday situation, against 35 percent across the OECD. Students at Level 5 or 6, the level the OECD associates with modelling complex situations mathematically, were 0.6 percent of the cohort, against 8 percent.
Failed education policy design
The Education Ministry’s own analysis of the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (Timss) 2023, released in December 2024, found that students lacked basic mathematics concepts from primary to secondary.
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Since then, the government has set a target in the 13th Malaysia Plan (13MP), tabled on July 31, 2025, of Pisa and Timss performance to be on par with the international average by 2030; launched the National Education Blueprint (NEB) 2026–2035 on Jan 20 this year with a mandatory grade C target and a centrally administered Learning Matrix from 2026; and on Sept 8 cited a 10-year Mathematics Education Transformation Plan.
It is Insap's view that this approach by the Madani administration has three design flaws that prevent it from achieving its objectives and must be addressed immediately.
First, there is no annual feedback loop against the target to test its effectiveness.
The ministry's own Educational Policy Planning and Research Division director told the results press conference that Malaysia aims to reach the OECD average in the next cycle.
In mathematics that means closing a gap of 66 points, from 397 to the OECD average of 463, when the OECD treats 20 points as roughly one year of schooling.
The Learning Matrix is a pupil-level diagnostic with no commitment yet to publish national results on a comparable scale, and Timss 2027 is expected to report only at the end of 2028.
As a result, the 2030 target itself will be tested only once, by Pisa 2029, with results coming out in 2030.
Second, there is no cohort logic. The students who will be tested for Pisa 2029 are in Year 6 and Form 1 today. Unless the 10-year plan is front-loaded for this cohort, and nothing published so far says it is, it will reach them only after their secondary mathematics has already been formed.
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Third, the school targets are not connected to the national talent targets. Every national ambition in artificial intelligence and chip design is an ambition in applied mathematics.
The National Semiconductor Strategy commits Malaysia to 60,000 high-skilled engineers by 2030, and the Investment, Trade and Industry Ministry told the Dewan Rakyat in November 2025 that 13,679 had been trained and deployed since launch, under programmes that include upskilling of engineers already at work.
The Pisa sample represents about 413,000 15-year-olds, of whom roughly 2,500 performed at that level. No published document reconciles the industrial target with the measured capability of the cohorts expected to fill it.
TalentCorp's Critical Occupations List 2024/2025 lists 66 hard-to-fill occupations across 18 sectors, engineering roles prominent among them, and at a recent semiconductor talent roundtable, industry participants were consistent that the shortage lies in engineers who can diagnose an unfamiliar problem and in experienced hires, and less in the number of certified graduates.
That is the competence Pisa measures at Level 5 and 6. The deficit employers meet at 22 is already visible at 15.
The same OECD note shows that the binding constraint sits in policy design. Teacher supply is adequate by international standards: only 18 percent of students are in schools reporting a shortage of teaching staff, against 39 percent across the OECD.
Thailand, which trailed Malaysia in every subject in 2022, gained significantly in all three subjects within a single cycle, the same three years in which Malaysia's fell further. The Philippines, from a lower base, did the same.
Insap's proposals
First, establish an annual national proficiency indicator. The Education Ministry has described the Learning Matrix as a diagnostic tool and as preparation for Timss and Pisa.
From 2027, when the Form 3 matrix begins, it should carry a sampled set of Pisa-style application items, scaled so that a national proficiency estimate is published every year.
The OECD's own Pisa for Schools instrument, already in use elsewhere and now being adopted by the Philippines, offers a ready-made basis, subject to agreement with the OECD.
Second, a joint cohort pipeline report starting from 2027, built from data that already exist in separate hands: Pisa and the matrix at the Education Ministry, the Graduate Tracer Study at the Higher Education Ministry, the Critical Occupations List at TalentCorp and the NSS talent count at the Investment, Trade and Industry Ministry.
It would follow each cohort from Form 3 proficiency through science stream take-up and pre-university enrolment to engineering intake and graduate output, set against the NSS and 13MP targets. The country would then see where the talent pipeline leaks.
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Third, cohort-sequenced implementation of the mathematics plan. The first two years should concentrate teacher deployment, materials and remediation on Year 6 to Form 2 mathematics, so that the 2029 cohort is reached in 2026 to 2028.
With these in place, the ministry would know within a year whether the mathematics plan is working and could correct course before 2029. Thailand's and the Philippines' single-cycle gains show that movement is possible.
Without them, the 2030 target remains merely a statement of intent with no instrument to track or deliver it.
PAMELA YONG is chairperson of Insap.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.
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Seriously, the Education Ministry needs to reinstate a standardised nationwide Std 6 school-leaving exam—pronto. Abolishing it was a disastrous mistake, and we are now paying the price for that misguided decision.
Did I read that there is no logic in the ministry's plans to close the gap with OECD average within the timeframe? Now, are we surprised that students in this country is lagging behind? Above all else, Mathematics is about logic. Every sum follows a logical route to a conclusion/answer. In our country, we solve problems by "dressing up". If our results are bad, we lower the passing mark. Anything "lacking" is to be dealt with swiftly by "smokes and screens" and telling of fantasy stories and refusing to accept responsibilities. For e.g. the recent FAM debacle; Prof. Solehah who dealt with the paucity of facts regarding the greatness of the society by changing historical facts as she weaved her cerita dongeng. Who cares what reality is, she can just pick and choose the words she like and claim it's history. Instead of telling students that they need to buck up and study harder, we change the world around them to make them think they are clever. The government forgets, they only have the power to tweak things in Malaysia. Outside this country, the reality remains. Our students are in for a rude shock. The government can put up a good show in Malaysia, they can make it an uneven playing field in school and in business and life, but only in Malaysia. The world outside will eventually intrude into their existence
The analysis is good, although only the Mathematics score is addressed. The curricula must be really understood and internalised by the educators before they can 'move' their students in that direction. The problem is the school culture in our government schools has deteriorated so badly, that without the prepared textbooks and guidance notes the 'trained' teachers would be all lost! Staff development is an ongoing process - but most principals never get involved in such a continuous programme. Teaching has become just another government job. No passion in most of our government educators. Beautifully designed reports seem to be a preoccupation of most Educational administrative officers. The Inspectors of Schools know how to write creative reports that please all quarters. Unfortunately PISA scores are not decided by our Examination Syndicate. If it was, we would have scores that top the whole world!
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