With respect to Shaukat Ali (' Demographic changes will ensure PAS victory '), he is only correct in that Singapore's Straits Times tends to sensationalise Malaysian news because they are not allowed to do so with Singapore news but is pressured to sell their paper in a competitive market.

It is true that demographic changes will happen but to assume that PAS can win even enough Malay votes to rule the country is at best rosy-painting.

The first basic assumption is that the Malay population is entirely homogenous and united in their view of Islam. The Malays in Malaysia are Sunnis who are essentially moderate. The theological movement in the Muslim world is largely coming from Wahhabism and Shiaism. PAS' version of Islam is really a movement in the same direction which will not go beyond a core group.

The second assumption is that the Malays wants a pure theological state. For most Malays, what they want and have always wanted is a modern practical state that offers a future for them. The problem is they do not know what that is. The same registered voter that voted for PAS in Kelantan and Terengganu makes his living and residency in Kuala Lumpur or Johor.

In 1999, their protest votes was against Umno's excesses and failures and not necessarily for PAS. There are a lot of voters particularly in the heartlands that do not understand the difference between a protest vote and a theological one. This is not true in states like Selangor, Johor, Perak, Sarawak, Sabah and even Pahang.

Even if PAS can get most of the Malay votes, they will never get enough to form a government. The truth is that with as little as 30 percent of Malay votes, Umno will still control the country even if the non-bumiputera population were to get as low as 20 percent of the population.

No political party in any Muslim nation has managed to get 70 percent popular votes which is what it would take for PAS to even challenge Umno at the federal level. Even in Kelantan and Terengganu, the number is close to 50 percent only.

Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad is right, Umno can only lose to themselves and not be beaten by others.

With the rise of incoming premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, there have been concrete steps to reduce excesses and elitism in Umno. Hence I expect Umno to gain back some lost grounds in the next elections.