The situation facing Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak is very complex. Every action he takes or plans to take will have far-reaching consequences for him, Umno and the country. Worse, he hasn’t got too many options.

One can presume what he wants is to continue as PM until the next election. It is unlikely that he would want to lead Umno and BN beyond that, given the present scenario. The question is, how does he continue as PM and Umno president under the present circumstances?

To continue, he has to deal with the allegations raised by The Wall Street Journal ( WSJ ) and Sarawak Report which implicate him directly with corruption and abuse of power. He has to prove that the allegations levelled at him are not trace and unfounded.

Of course he can claim he is innocent until proven guilty, which is fair enough. But his opponents and critics say there must be a just and fair process to verify his guilt or innocence, a process that is independent and based on generally accepted principles of natural justice and law. In other words, the investigations on him must be transparent and not influenced or controlled by him as he is the accused. This is also fair and right.

Seen from the eyes of Najib, one can understand his concerns and actions. There is too much at stake for him. If the investigations should establish his involvement in corruption and abuse of power, it would mean the end of his political career, the end of his government, and the end of Umno as a dominant political force.

This explains why the cabinet and the top echelons in Umno are supporting him. If Najib loses, it is not just he who will go down but almost the entire BN leadership. Therefore he, his government, and cronies have to fight back. The ruling group has too much to lose if Najib should fall.

The reactions within Umno as a party may be different. While the top Umno leadership is going along with Najib, at least for the moment, people lower down are likely to have many questions about what has been revealed by the WSJ and Sarawak Report.

Dr Mahathir Mohamad is exploiting this likely dissent in Umno by trying to show that Najib is not good for Umno and its future and that Umno would lose the next election if it is led by Najib. His argument is that he has nothing against Najib personally. Najib is incompetent, corrupt, and not good for Umno. Therefore he must step down.

‘Political terminator’

Not everybody accepts Dr. Mahathir’s explanation. Many believe he has an axe to grind and his motive is not completely altruistic. But, for those who want Najib out, Dr Mahathir is the right person to get the job done. He is an expert ‘political terminator’.

Of course Najib wants a favourable outcome from the 1MDB and related investigations. He wants his name to be cleared, at most with a slap on his wrist. But here he has to be extremely careful. He is treading on slippery grounds. Any perception that the present ongoing investigations are not impartial will lead the prime minister into deeper waters.

Already there is criticism that the special task force comprising four Tan Sris cannot be independent because they all report to Najib in different capacities. The four are accused of being ‘stooges’ of the PM.

This is not good for Najib because if the task force were to find, on objective investigation, that he is not guilty of the allegations, the Malaysian people may not accept the finding. This may not be fair to Najib, but perceptions are what matter. If that happens, how could Najib continue to lead the country and Umno when people don’t believe the investigations were done fairly and impartially?

His position will become untenable then. He will be kept busy dealing with demonstrations and opposition, with no time to run the country. His international reputation will also suffer, which will affect investments to the country. No government, especially in a democracy, can function long if the people do not trust the government and its leaders.

This is the dilemma for Najib. Does he step aside and allow a free and impartial investigation to be carried out or does he remain in power and hope he will be vindicated? Going on leave has political consequences for him, which he has to weigh. Rarely do politicians take this option. They feel safer to stay in power and face the crisis and try to ‘fix’ the problem. Even Dr Mahathir had handled his crises by ‘fixing’ them.

The danger in selecting the option to stay in power is that it will put Najib and his supporters against his critics. If criticism against him should mount or should there be more revelations of misconduct, his position will become shaky. Dictators may be able to deal with such situations, but in a democratic country like Malaysia, Najib’s options to deal with such a situation are very limited.

The real problem that Najib is facing is not the WSJ or the Sarawak Report. The real problem is that he is rapidly losing the trust of the people.

It is difficult to govern if your people do not believe or trust you. This suggests what Najib needs to do - he has to get Malaysians to believe him. At the moment, this appears to be an uphill task.

Even if the investigations should clear him, the man in the street may not. Politically, what counts is what the man in the street thinks of Najib and his government. At the moment, Najib seems to be losing this battle of the mind. The ultimate victor in all this may be the Internet and social media.