The present political environment in the country is interesting from a political strategy perspective. What are the strategic options available to both the government and the opposition? The choice they make will determine the future of the country - whether there is going to be change or continuity.

From everything the government is doing, it is clear it has opted for a strategy of continuity. Carry on with business as usual because there is too much to lose if things are changed. Any fundamental change in the political system, policies, and practices will expose the government and the ruling elites to too much risk. Many may have to pay a high price for their past misdeeds.

This is a dilemma for all autocratic governments - how to hand over power without having to pay for your past misgovernment.

The obvious strategic option for those in power is not to hand over power. You do the opposite. You strengthen your power-base through more control. You control all critical institutions, structures, and processes that have the potential to undermine your power-base. You introduce new policies and laws to weaken your political opposition.

This is not the time to be faint-hearted. You are in the driver’s seat. You use the power you have to ensure your power-base is not weakened or threatened. In marketing we call this a defensive strategy.

The recent actions of Umno and the government clearly fall within this strategy. This strategy can work, but it is predicated on certain assumptions. For this strategy to work, the competitive environment must be stable and there should not be any serious competitors. If the environment is changing or turbulent and there are serious competitors who can offer better value to customers/voters, the defensive strategy will not work.

This is the Achilles’ heel of Umno and the government. Its analysis of the political landscape is myopic and too self-assuring. The ruling elites need to re-examine their assumptions of the political environment. The environment is no longer stable. Many forces are at work, shifting the frontiers of the environment.

In some sense, the shifting political landscape is an inevitable consequence of the political, economic, and social development of the country. As the country develops, people too develop and grow in their thinking and understanding of issues confronting them. The government cannot have the cake and eat it. As it embarks on modernisation of the country, it needs to accept the opening of the minds of the people.

The ability of the government to control the minds of the people becomes less and less feasible. In political terms, the ‘fixed deposits’ of Umno and the government become less reliable.

The government, of course, will take measures to buttress its traditional political support, but such actions will only have short-term results. In the long-run, you cannot push back the tide. This is clear if you talk to young Malays in their 20s and 30s. They see race and religion less and less relevant to the political process. This paradigm shift will take its course and time, but its direction is clear. The democratisation of the Malaysian society is on course.

Umno and the government, and political parties in general, can ill-afford to ignore the forces of change. Holding on to concepts and political strategies that have worked in the past is unlikely to work any longer.

The problem goes beyond leadership

For Umno, this means change. Trying to defend the past will be a strategic mistake. To dismiss a two-party system summarily does not augur well for a party that needs to change.

It is also a mistake to argue that Umno is fine, only its leaders need to be changed. The problem goes beyond leadership.

Umno has to change. It has to develop new political precepts that are relevant to a changing and developing Malaysia. Otherwise, it will be old wine in new bottle.

How long can Umno hold on to power and the past? That depends on the political environment and its political competitors. It also depends on how far Umno is prepared to go to keep power.

While Umno, through the government, has much control on the political environment, its control is not unlimited. There are many forces at work that are making it difficult for Umno to exert control over the political landscape. Increased education and urbanisation have social impacts. The urban Malay thinks differently from the rural Malay. His needs and concerns are different. He is also better informed, thanks to social media.

More and more Malays are working in the corporate sector where they work with non-Malays and use English to communicate. This workplace diversity helps in understanding cultural and religious differences and removing racial biases. The pressures of urban living force a certain ‘convergence’ in perceptions of politics and economics that cut across race and religion.

Globalisation and the opening of the country through economic integration like the Asean free trade community and the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) will serve to liberate the minds of Malaysians working in the new environment.

Inevitably, economic liberalisation will bring with it a new mindset about race, religion, and culture. This opening of the Malaysian mind will provide the bed-rock for a modern understanding of politics and political processes.

In this new political environment, Umno will find it difficult to manoeuvre and play its traditional political game. It may take some time, but the direction is clear. Umno may still win the next general election through tactical moves and Machiavellian politics, but it cannot continue to win unless it changes significantly.

Change is important not only for Umno to be relevant but also to lead political change in the country. As the largest political party in the country, Umno has a responsibility to bring about a new political culture that reflects the growing role of Malaysia in the region and the world.

Where does this leave the opposition? It means the opposition has to be different from Umno, not better than Umno. Many in the opposition carry with them the Umno DNA. This will not do. The opposition has to build different political precepts. This means trade-offs with short-term political ambitions.

This is hard because politics is short-term thinking. But if the opposition is serious about providing a viable alternative to the voters, it has to think long-term and build the structure and foundational principles on which it can stand firmly.