I refer to the letter Stock market not a yardstick for economic performance and fully agree with the writer on his views. At the same time, I will not question the statistics given by the government.

The reality behind this hotly-debated subject is that the apparently strong macroeconomic aggregates and the rally in the stock market has been driven by the external sector and not by the domestic sector as is normally the case.

This fluke of luck happened by default as a substantial amount of FDI and hot money has been deflected from Thailand in view of the recent political developments in that country. Strong performance of the other sectors - particularly in the prices of petroleum, palm oil and tourist arrivals - have further helped to bear the fruit.

Aggressive views have also been taken by hedge funds on the exchange rate of the ringgit, up to RM3.20 against the greenback by the end of this year. The massive liquidity in the international money market only helps to fuel the inflow of short-term money into our economy even more.

The fact that the total growth of loans and advances last year had been dismal is another telling indicator that the performance of the domestic economy has not been what the statistics suggest. The bottom line is that the so- called rally in the stock market now is not likely to be sustainable.

Alan Greenspan, the former US Federal Reserve chairman, has said that he would not overrule the possibility that the American economy would be moving towards recession by the third quarter of this year. This means that the Malaysia Securities Exchange Berhad (MSEB) index would slide back to about the 950 level by then.

So what are the great celebration and jubilation all about? Of course, it is about setting the right tone and tempo for the next general election. The opposition parties seem to speculate that it would be soon. But the question is how soon? The right answer is probably as soon as the non-bumiputeras have sufficiently cooled down after they were insulted and provoked by the Umnoputras during their last annual conference held late ast year.

How long can Pak Lah wait before calling for the next general election then? Ideally, the target date should be after the celebrations of our nation's 50th anniversary but before the start of the fasting month in October.

That a lot of money will be thrown around to celebrate the forthcoming National Day is a forgone conclusion. It would be done in a grand and colourful way to entertain the tourists while at the same time wooing support from the locals for the impending general election.

Meanwhile, whilst the stock market is still strong we should just ride with the tide. Reserve decision-making on your voting rights until the last moment.