In their bid to take over Penang in the general election, the opposition is missing - or perhaps not taking seriously - a very significant and indeed crucial factor, and unless DAP and Keadilan immediately zoom in on this, I'm afraid the opposition will fail in their quest, irrespective of how hard they try.

One must remember that although Penang is a Chinese-majority state, it is the large Malay minority which, in fact, holds the key to political power in a situation of voting along racial lines. This is clearly reflected in the way constituency boundaries have been drawn to favour the Malay, and in the process, dilute the Chinese vote. Of the 40 contested state seats, 15 have Malay majorities with a smaller number of voters compared to the remaining much larger 25 Chinese -majority and ‘mixed’ seats. This show sthe discrepancy in the strengths of the Malay and Chinese vote in Penang.

The electoral battles in Penang - as elsewhere - have been fought in neatly segregated racial arenas roughly coinciding with urban for Chinese or rural for Malay areas even when there has been some overlapping instances. But on the whole, they still mean that while DAP takes on Gerakan and MCA in the 25 Chinese and ‘mixed’ areas, PKR, and to a little extent PAS, cross swords with Umnoin the 15 Malay-majority areas.

Given the escalating anti-BN mood in Penang, it appears so far that while the DAP is doing well against the Gerakan and MCA, this is not so in the case of PKR (and also PAS) against Umno. Should this trend continue until polling day, it would be a case of DAP mauling Gerakan and MCA badly, though not to the extent of wiping them out completely, while Umno holds its ground firmly against PKR.

This kind of likely scenario is broadly similar to what happened in 1990 when DAP did very well, winning 14 state seats, but its ally Semangat 46 collapsed dramatically, losing all its contested 12 seats to Umno. The result - 14 for opposition and 19 for BN. Umno emerged as the largest element in Penang BN with 12 seats against the combined seven for Gerakan and MCA.

Anwar Ibrahim and Lim Guan Eng, in planning to win Penang in the polls, must carefully consider this 1990 scenario which is likely to repeat itself in this election after the votes are counted on the night of March. Assuming DAP wins its targeted 14 state seats and PKR suffers the same fate as Semangat 46 in 1990 by winning zero seats, the BN will still control Penang with 26 seats - Umno 15 and Gerakan/MCA 11.

And this will of course strengthen Umno's bid for the chief minister's position in Penang, something which all the Chinese parties - DAP, Gerakan and MCA - do not welcome.

The DAP is doing all right and should continue with its all out onslaught against Gerakan and MCA with predictable results. The DAP is also within grasp of two MIC held seats - Prai and Bagan Dalam as the Indians are expected to ditch MIC completely.

But it is the performance of PKR in the Malay areas that is some cause for concern in the opposition.

So far Anwar and PKR have been lacklustre in their campaign against Umno, giving the impression they are unable to make a heavy dent on Umno to the extent that the DAP has in the case of Gerakan and MCA. Feedback on the ground in the Malay areas in Penang, especially Province Wellesley, seems to suggest a strong Umno vis-a-vis a weaker PKR in their respective ongoing campaigns.

It is still not too late for Anwar to go round the Umno areas in Penang and Province Wellesley, using Permatang Pauh as his base to maul Umno whose leaders continue to fear him. Anwar has 1,001 issues in his political arsenal against Umno which he can use to great effect, but I am surprised as to why he appears to hesitate at this juncture.

Perhaps Anwar and Guan Eng may like to take a close look at the Gerakan's historic victory in Penang in 1969 and draw some lessons from it in their bid to take over Penang. The Gerakan victory then should convince Anwar and Guan Eng that for the opposition to win Penang in this general election, not only must Gerakan and MCA fall, but. Umno too has to fall.

Gerakan under Dr Lim Chong Eu swept to victory in Penang because in addition to defeating MCA and MIC, Gerakan also defeated Umno in six out of the 10 state seats Umno contested. In that memorable election, MCA lost 12 seats and MIC lost its sole seat when both the non-Malay Alliance components were wiped out in Penang. Gerakan's 16 seat tally in Penang then was solid such that it need not rely on the DAP which won three seats and Parti Rakyat which won one seat to form a coalition in the then 24-seat Penang state assembly.

I hope Anwar and Guan Eng will bear in mind that unless Umno is also beaten decisively - and this only PKR can do since it is fighting Umno directly in the 15 Malay majority seats - the opposition can kiss goodbye to their moves to take Penang irrespective of how well the DAP is going to perform.

If they have not done so, DAP should help canvass the minority Chinese and Indian votes for PKR fighting Umno in Malay-majority seats while PKR can do the same for DAP in relation to the Malay minority vote in the Chinese and ‘mixed’ seats DAP is contesting.