Tri-elections will determine Najib's fate

That the three by-elections to be held next Tuesday are vitally important to the newly anointed – not elected – Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak is beyond doubt.

Having failed to stem the rise of PKR in Permatang Pauh last August and stop PAS from making inroads into the Malay constituency of Kuala Terengganu early this year did not augur well for the Umno supremo.

While he seemingly pulled off the biggest surprise by snatching Perak from Pakatan Rakyat, the aftermath has been chaotic and messy, to say the least. The legal wrangling thereafter and the backlash against the Perak royal household have time and again reminded Najib that this was not too smart a move after all.

Hence the desperate need to secure convincing wins in Batang Ai, Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau at all costs, or at least to narrow the margins of defeat.

Having the three newly-minted vice-presidents of Umno - Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Hishammuddin Hussein and Mohd Shafie Aqdal - adopting a constituency each and put in charge of the electoral campaigns may be an attempt by Najib to keep himself above the fray.

But it will not shift public perception that the by-elections are of sorts a referendum on his premiership.

As I have argued before, only the dumb and the naïve would believe a leader should be allowed to bathe in the glory of victory while his minions take the rap when in defeat. Najib knows full well the stakes are high for him.

BN likely to hold on to Batang Ai

It is quite likely that BN will keep Batang Ai in Sarawak given the powerful machinery and the abundant resources at its disposal.

The treacherous terrains that one has to pass through before reaching the innermost areas do hinder PKR – already stretched to the limits - from getting its message across. Even if the party won the seat despite the odds stacked against it, it must not be taken as an indicator of a wind of change blowing across the Bumi Kenyalang (Land of the Hornbill).

Yes, the Sarawak United People’s Party (Supp) did lose eight seats in the 2006 state election, all of which were in Chinese-majority areas.

But elsewhere, it was a clean sweep for the BN, with Parti Pesaka Bumputera Bersatu (PBB) of the Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud bagging all the 35 seats that it contested, suggesting that his powerbase remained largely unaffected by the political developments in the Peninsular.

I would therefore caution Anwar Ibrahim and his fellow Pakatan bigwigs that an unlikely win in Batang Ai will not be a harbinger of change until and unless the opposition front has firmly secured the support of the indigenous leaders and is equipped with all the necessary resources to penetrate the remote and isolated constituencies in a state-wide contest.

‘Derhaka’ and DAP stooge

As for Bukit Gantang, Umno’s immediate goal is to maintain the level of Malay support there.

This had been a safe BN seat for decades, which PAS won last year by surprise and on the back of the non-Malay vote.

To that effect, Umno has resorted to the issue of ‘derhaka’, in addition to painting PAS as being a DAP stooge. The tactic seems to have some effect judging from the lacklustre turnout at Pakatan rallies in rural Malay areas so far.

While I am ill at ease with any nationalist ideology and sentiments, it is no denial that the call for grand unity still appeals to a significant segment of the Malay community, as I noticed many ordinary Malay folks were moved to tears at seeing Najib, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Dr Mahathir Mohamad holding each other’s hands at the closing ceremony of the Umno general assembly last week.

The “moving” scene clearly symbolised Malay unity and a possible return to the “glorious past” of Umno hegemony, although how much impact this would have on the younger generation of the Malay constituency remains to be seen. In any case, an Umno that sings the same tune and looks united will stir many a nationalist soul.

Nizar popular among non-Malays

Pakatan has upped the ante by fielding Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin as the candidate; it is now a by-election and a referendum on the legitimacy of the deposed menteri besar.

Even if Pakatan changed the tune at the eleventh hour and sought to play down its significance on sensing a possible loss, it would be too late to salvage its damaged credibility. In this scenario, Umno would only turn up the heat and relish in keeping the referendum going.

At the same time, Pakatan has to ensure the non-Malay vote is secure, even increased. In this sense, PAS can be comforted to know the Chinese in Perak have loosened their psychological straightjacket as people throng its rallies and embrace Nizar as one of them.

I know of instances whereby non-Malay supporters wept at his loss of power. It is indeed a far cry from the days when an utterance by PAS leaders would easily ignite fear for an Islamic state.

As a sign of the campaign heating up, rumour has it that Hee Yit Foong, the former DAP state assemblywoman who resigned to become an independent and was instrumental in the fall of the Pakatan government in Perak, might officially join either MCA or Gerakan should BN win the Bukit Gantang seat.

Meanwhile, Mohd Osman Jailu and Jamaluddin Mohd Radzi, the two ex-PKR state assemblymen tainted by corruption charges, are said to be ready to join Umno as well in order to “clear their names”.

All this remains hearsay of course, but repeating it may help Pakatan, especially DAP, maintain its support among the Chinese.

Knife could be out for Najib

Bukit Selambau is no doubt a tough fight due to the record number of independents as well as the acrimonious accusations between PKR Indian supporters.

Should the BN be able to exploit the differences, the 2,362 majority votes secured by V Arumugam last time around would not be too difficult to be overturned. Pakatan has to work doubly hard to keep the seat lest a loss be an incentive for Najib and his cohorts to engineer yet another political coup given the Pakatan’s shaky rule in Kedah.

On the whole, the BN is prepared to lose in Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau, but not by a wide margin. That way, Najib is likely to stay on as prime minister, continuing with his task of rebuilding the once deeply divided Umno and consolidating its dominance.

However, should the BN lose big in the two Bukits while keeping Batang Ai with a razor’s thin majority, the knife could be out for Najib come next Umno election.

Not only would the new prime minister have to face a rejuvenated opposition front, he would also be preoccupied with potential sabotage coming from his powerful deputy Muhyddin Yassin, the ever-resentful Mahathir, and other disgruntled Umno chieftains.

In that case, it would not be surprising for Najib to call a snap election in the not-too-distant future. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. While a snap election would be akin to turkeys voting for Christmas, it would still be better than being constantly held to ransom by the various hostile forces.