With PAS victory in Permatang Pasir, the 7th straight for Pakatan Rakyat, and a clean sweep in Peninsular Malaysia since March 8 2008, the BN must be wondering if it still has the support of Malaysians on this side of the South China Sea.

NONE If in Manek Urai, the BN claimed that the Malay ground was shifting in its favour, Permatang Pasir has proven otherwise.

No doubt PAS' majority has been reduced but the reality is far more complicated.

Percentage wise, BN garnered some 1 percent more votes but in reality the actual number of votes garnered by Rohaizat Othman (5,067) confirms a downward trend.

In 2008, BN candidate Ahmad Shahar Shuib obtained 5,571 votes whilst in Mohamad Isa Ramli got 7,378 votes.

In 2009, voter turnout was 73 percent whilst in 2008, it was 83 percent.

This is not good news for the BN, which early on complained about "phantom

voters".

From the start, the BN machinery faltered especially when it was revealed that its candidate had been disbarred for misappropriation of a client's funds.

As Dr Mahathir said in his blog, here is a case of "self-sabotage".

Permatang Pasir also confirms that the Malay swing towards Pakatan, especially for PAS, is still very strong.

Those in PAS who doubt their party's cooperation with DAP and PKR, are now starkly reminded that the formula continues to win votes.

The Chinese and Indian votes, analysts will soon discover, is solidly for Pakatan, even if the candidate is from PAS.

Not long ago, it was claimed that the BN's chances of winning a by-election was simply too easy.

Blinding myopic views

In those days, the BN could put a coconut to run and its candidate would still win.

Perhaps, the BN believed too much in its own myths.

tengku razaleigh ku li interview 190309 03 Tengku Razaleigh (right) hit the nail on the head when he asked whether Rohaizat Othman was the best Umno could do?

Throughout the campaigning period, what came out from the mouths of the BN by-election machinery contradicted the PM's 1Malaysia policy.

We all know that politicians seldom say what they mean and that they speak differently to different audiences.

But the Bangkit Melayu (rise up Malays) rhetoric was just too shrill.

How are we to regard ourselves as 1Malaysia when nearly half the country is thought of as "enemies" of the Malays"?

Some looked to the BN component parties for their views.

It seems these political parties have no views.

Perhaps, they were too busy with their own internal struggles to bother going to the ground explaining the BN's "moderate" policies.

But political parties without any public opinion are already dead.

Instead, we continue to witness a crumbling BN.

NONE The MCA president even said that he was under-siege from all sides.

The BN Back-bencher Club president was seen on youtube openly claiming that he gave RM 10 million to the MCA president.

The DPM could do nothing except advice them both not to continue fighting in public.

The damage was already done.

Then, it was revealed that the BN candidate had appealed to the High Court to set aside the decision of the Bar Council's Disciplinary Board to relief him of his certificate to practice.

But here the High Court upheld the decision of the Bar Council.

Again, it only served to confirm the unsavoury image of the BN.

The MIC too was helpless to assist the BN campaign.

Blame game falls apart

When Samy Vellu announced that he would serve out his full term as president until

2012, it confirmed for many that this was the end of reforms for the

party.

This may only be an impression and Samy Vellu may really be trying to institute changes.

NONE But in politics, impression is everything.

On the sidelines leading up to this by-election was the Kg Buah Pala issue.

Here the BN could be forgiven if it thought the Pakatan state government was finally going to get egg on its face.

Instead, it made Penangites even more angry at the previous Gerakan state government.

It dredged up the close connection between politicians and developers.

Attempts to pin the blame on the present government fell to pieces when it was discovered that the previous State government had authorised the sale and purchase agreement, which the Federal Court upheld to be legitimate.

NONE Is it any wonder that Dr Koh Tsu Koon, now a federal minister, could not convince the Chinese to vote differently in Permatang Pasir?

In fact, Chinese votes for the Opposition may have even strengthened.

Once again, the painful lesson from this by-election, which the BN does not seem to want to take on board, is that the old style of hate politics no longer work.

Even developmental politics, used so often, cannot win hearts and minds.

To the Malay voters in Permatang Pasir, whether Umno is in power or not, their lives are not affected.

Even the offer of making the constituency "anak mas" (golden child) smacked of bribery.

What does it mean for other constituencies? Are they all "anak tiri" (stepchildren)?

More cracks to come

If there is one sharp lesson that we can draw from this latest by-election is that Umno is no longer synonymous with "Malay".

Malays now have new champions in PAS and PKR.

For Pakatan Rakyat, this latest victory shows that only with genuine inter-party cooperation can elections be won.

NONE In Manek Urai, a disunited PAS opened the gates for Umno to capture crucial votes.

In Permatang Pasir, with PAS backed fully by DAP and PKR, the voters continued to support PAS.

Nonetheless, Pakatan Rakyat is still a fragile coalition.

The recent desertion of a Kedah state assemblyman is evidence of more cracks to come.

No doubt, PR assemblymen can be bought or coaxed to declare themselves independents.

But this only serves to collectively degrade politicians.

If the BN is really to win back the ground, the only way forward is for the coalition to govern well.

The MACC must be seen to be fair. The judiciary too must act without fear or favour.

However, if the BN continues to listen to the loud cries of Umno's radical fringe, these political parties would soon find themselves governing a "foreign" country.

The BN used to win votes not because of "Bangkit Melayu" but because it delivered on its promises be it Independence, the Twin Towers or Felda.

The coalition must remember that elections are for the incumbents to lose and not for the Opposition to win.

Strong arm tactics may win the day but they almost certainly means one has no future.

The kingmakers in Sabah and Sarawak are also watching anxiously for signs of a BN

recovery.

It does not make sense for them to support a coalition that has no future in the Peninsular.

The answer, it seems, is blowing in the winds of change.

NEIL KHOR has recently completed his PhD at the University of Cambridge. He is co-author of 'Non-Sectarian Politics in Malaysia: The Case of Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia' (2008).