Pakatan Rakyat which has 37 marginal seats, won by less than 5% majority, is in a more precarious position than Barisan Nasional. All in all, PKR has 20 seats, PAS 13 while DAP has only four marginal seats.

NONE If BN manages to swing back 5% of the votes, PKR will shrink from being the biggest opposition party with 31 seats to the smallest with only 11 seats.

PAS' seats will be slashed from 24 to 11, while DAP will suffer the least and end up leading the opposition with 24 seats.

In terms of geography, PKR and DAP's marginal seats are situated in the west coast urban or semi-urban areas in the Peninsular including:

  • Gombak (PKR vice president Azmin Ali, 54.7% votes)
  • B andar Tun Razak (Selangor MB Khalid Ibrahim, 52.3% votes)
  • Ampang (PKR women's chief Zuraidah Kamaruddin, 53.7% votes)
  • Selayang (PKR treasurer William Leong, 53.1% votes)
  • Seremban (John Fernandez, 53.2% votes)
  • Bruas (DAP Perak chief Ngeh Khoo Ham, 53.1% votes)

PAS' marginal seats are situated in Malay rural areas in the West and East Coast of the Peninsular including:

  • Bukit Gantang (Ousted Perak MB Nizar Jamaluddin, 53.3% votes)
  • Kuala Selangor (PAS central committee member Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad, 51,2% votes)
  • Bachok (PAS deputy president Nasharudin Mat Isa, 52.7% votes)
  • Kota Bharu (Wan Abd Rahim Wan Abdullah, 52.7% votes)

However, several of PAS' marginal seats may be won by an even smaller margin although these seats can be considered traditional strongholds, such as Marang , which was won several times by its president Abdul Hadi Awang (52.1% votes).

Nine DAP seats in Top 10

In the worst case scenario where 10% of the votes swing back to BN, Pakatan will only retain 29 seats whereas DAP, which has the most solid base, will be able to retain 22 seats.

Interestingly, out of the top 10 seats won by Pakatan, DAP took the lion share with nine:

  • Seputeh (Selangor senior exco member Teresa Kok, 81.5% votes)
  • Cheras (DAP vice-chairperson Tan Kok Wai, 78.2% votes)
  • Kepong (DAP deputy chairperson Tan Seng Giaw, 75.2% votes)
  • Tanjong (Penang DAP chief, Chow Kon Yeow, 74.3% votes)
  • Bagan (Penang CM cum DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng, 74.3% votes)
  • Batu Gajah (Fong Po Kuan, 72.3% votes)
  • Bukit Gelugor (national chairperson Karpal Singh, 71.3% votes)
  • I poh Timor (DAP supremo, Lim Kit Siang, 70.8% votes)
  • K ota Kinabalu (Dr Hiew King Cheu, 68.2% votes)

All of these 'Rocket' fortresses were Chinese or non-Malay majority seats.

PAS most safe seat

Kota Raja , with a mix of Indian and Chinese majority seats, is the only PAS seat that ranks in the Top 10 safe seats of Pakatan. It was won by Dr Siti Mariah Mahmud with 68.4% of votes.

azlan PAS has another three seats won by more than 60% margin:

Pengkalan Chepa (PAS election direction Abdul Halim Abdul Rahman, 63.4% votes), Kubang Kerian (PAS vice-president Salahuddin Ayub, 62.2% votes) and Parit Buntar (Dr Mujahid Yusof Rawa, 60.8% votes).

While PKR has only three seats which it won through 60% of the votes, including its de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim's Permatang Pauh (66.6% votes), Padang Serai (N Gobalakrishanan, 62.8% votes) and Bayan Baru (Zahrain Mohamad Hashim, 62.5% votes).

PKR strategic director Tian Chua, who is appealing a 'cop-biting' conviction charge and faces the possibility of being disqualified should his appeal be turned down, won the Batu seat with 59.4% of the votes - the fourth highest seat won by PKR and ranked 30th among the Pakatan seats.

Part 1: 61 shaky seats to watch in next GE

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