COMMENT Umno vice-president Hishammuddin Hussein has reportedly remarked that Zaid Ibrahim is beginning to see the light.

This w NONE as after Zaid withdrew from the PKR deputy presidential elections yesterday because he claimed that the electoral process is rigged. At the time, he was trailing far behind Azmin Ali.

It seems that PKR is unable to conduct fair and clean elections or at least that seems to be the impression we are getting from both the mainstream and online media.

For the BN to win the next general election, Pakatan Rakyat must fail to show up at the starting line as a coalition. Its weakest link is PKR, the newest party and essentially seen as an Umno splinter party.

PKR under Anwar Ibrahim has made tremendous gains but its machinery is weak. There is also a difficult mix of people with very different social, cultural and economic backgrounds.

If PKR succeeds, Pakatan will become a credible government-in-waiting with a non-racial party at its core. The alternative is the  BN with Umno, a race-based party at its heart.   

Yet, from the developments over the last few months, it would seem that PKR is headed for disaster.

Its attempt azlan to carry out nationwide direct elections and emerge as the most democratic of political parties seems flawed.

Perhaps, it was jumping ahead of itself and did not realise that no political party is immune to money politics, vote-rigging and all other things that Zaid has alleged.

Most cynical and politically-tired Malaysians will say that PKR members are not ready for such a formula. The BN is already saying that a multi-ethnic party cannot succeed.

So Onn Jaafar, Umno’s first president who dreamed of a multi-ethnic political party, is still very much a  visionary. Events in the last couple of months have shown that Pakatan may have the right vision and aspirations but it is BN that is practical. If Malaysians do not wish to set aside racial prejudice, why force them?

Former Umno president Dr Mahathir Mohamad has already said that it is not that the party rejects 1Malaysia or meritocracy but that a  merit-based society cannot be achieved until all its components are nearly equal in terms of economic standing.

In short, the BN formula of having a race-based party managing each ethnic group may not be the best formula but it is the best that Malaysia has and for 53 years, it has worked.

New schools of thought

Another school of thought, made up of mostly urban Malaysians, takes another view.

They claim that Malaysians are ready for a Malaysian government that is not based on the management of ethnic demands. Because the urban areas are so ethnically-mixed, this group’s opinion seems to reflect the aspirations of fellow-Malaysians living in towns and cities.

malaysia parliament parlimen By 2020, it is projected that 70 percent of Malaysians will be living in cities but their representation in Parliament will not even be 50 percent. Some of these people are in BN itself and have been urging component parties to think seriously about greater integration.

There is yet another school of thought represented by ethnic exclusivists who claim that the government should maintain race-based policies, protect Malay rights and make Article 153 superior to any other parts of the constitution.

They do not agree that Malaysia is a civic territorial nation; instead the country is based on Malay culture, language and religion (in this case, Islam). Anyone who does not agree is a traitor.

They say the BN government need only survive the next general election and their dream of a Malay state will be achieved. Demographically, Malays including other bumiputeras will reach 70 percent of the population and will be an overwhelming majority.  

barisan nasional This means that the BN can review its power-sharing structure with non-Malay parties with a view of entrenching Malay political power, and then move effectively to ‘re-distribute’ wealth.   

With all these different political pressure-groups now emerging, PKR’s failure to galvanise itself and prepare the rank-and-file to take on the BN will haunt it during the next general election.

Even if Pakatan wins 60 percent of the popular vote in Peninsular  Malaysia, BN will still form the next government because of its vote bank in Sabah and Sarawak. There are now clear signs that Pakatan’s urban vote bank is quite vulnerable.

The economy is picking up and most Malaysians are  turned off by politics. There is every danger that they might stay away from the next election and this will lead to a big victory for  the BN.

Pakatan imperfections

Pakatan, without the political control over the four states, will surely break apart. All the BN needs to do is to hang on and the two-thirds majority will return to its fold. After the 13th general election, non-Malay votes will no longer matter and Umno can rule on its own.

Pakatan has to recognise that its best chance to unseat the BN is within the next 12 months. If PKR can remedy itself and refresh its image, it will become a strong anchor party. Without strong and credible leadership from PKR, Pakatan cannot hope to win the mixed seats.

Both DAP and PAS, although better organised, will never be seen as anchor parties, as they are seen as ‘extreme’ by significant segments of society.

azlan PKR therefore has to carry the torch. But only if Anwar can give Malaysians a credible successor will the PKR emerge as the new anchor party of government.

Zaid’s decision to quit the deputy presidential race and all party posts has put the brakes on PKR’s ambitions to become the anchor party of government. He has his reasons, with which other PKR leaders do not  agree.

After Umno’s victories in Galas and Batu Sapi, the increasing seriousness of PKR’s problems is a godsend to rivals. Moreover, Umno is now more united and master strategist Mahathir is firmly back in control.

What Hishammuddin said may have special significance for Malaysians. We are now awake to the weaknesses of PKR and by extension, to those of Pakatan. We know that they are not perfect.

The question is whether, even in their imperfection, it is a better  option than the BN. Or will Malaysians choose the devil they know and continue voting for the BN?

Was it not Hussein Onn who said  “there is no honour amongst men” when reminiscing about Malaysian politicians?

There is more honour among thieves, for politics is truly a marriage of convenience.

NEIL KHOR recently completed his PhD at the University of Cambridge. He is co-author of ‘Non-Sectarian Politics in Malaysia: The Case of Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia’ (2008).