C OMMENT No less than 12 PKR branches in Selangor (27 in total nationwide) called off voting last Sunday. If there were irregularities of this level and scope in a general election, I am certain that netizens and Malaysians in general would be screaming bloody murder, and that PKR would be screaming from the front row.

This level of electoral disaster suggests, at best, a joke of an administrative bureaucracy, and at worst, a most odious conspiracy.

I am in no position to differentiate conclusively between one and the other, but seeing that the PKR elections chief apparently has no problem with taking “months” to complete the electoral process, I suppose this is a good a time as any to make the next comment on some of the dynamics in the race for PKR deputy president, and what this delay in voting may imply.

A quick recap. Contesting are Abdul Khalid Ibrahim, Saifuddin Nasution and Azmin Ali, and the nationwide voting process is divided up geographically, with different states supposed to vote over three weekends, the last of which just ended.

After the first weekend of voting, the votes were Khalid - 2,228 , Saifuddin - 2,322 and Azmin - 5,111. After the second weekend of voting: Khalid - 6,217, Saifuddin - 5,717 and Azmin - 9,876.

After the first weekend, Azmin had more votes than the other two combined, while by the second weekend, it was clear that with Khalid’s and Saifuddin’s votes combined, Azmin could have been quite easily defeated.

My last article on the matter suggested that PKR is now facing a similar scenario to the one faced by PAS in 2009, where Nasharuddin won easily against the split anti-Umno camp of Husam Musa and Mat Sabu.

Playing poker with no cards

Now, talk is rife of the obvious option: that either Khalid or Saifuddin should step down in favour of the other. Journalists wrote of a “secret meeting” at Anwar Ibrahim’s house last Thursday night (typical of PKR politics, and just as typically un-secret in practice), where PKR big guns tried to persuade Khalid to step down.

Khalid is apparently having none of it, and who can blame him?

This is not the first time Khalid has been pressured to back down. I remember when Khalid announced his intention to run for deputy president in the last PKR elections, amid much excitement.

Eventually, he essentially dropped out and gave way to Zaid Ibrahim to carry the anti-Azmin banner (talk being Khalid did this at Anwar’s behest). We all remember how that turned out, and apparently Khalid does, too.

Reports have it that in exchange for dropping out this time, PKR will “graciously allow” Khalid to keep the menteri besar post.

It is often quite amusing to watch people play poker and make big bets without having any real cards.

The line of reasoning behind this offer strains credulity: Khalid should drop out so that Azmin can be defeated; failing which, Anwar and gang will let Azmin - the man they are trying to defeat - become menteri besar? (After all, there seems no other credible PKR candidate for menteri besar in the Selangor state assembly). A thought process eminently bereft of logic, it seems to me. It’s no wonder that Khalid reportedly walked out.

So, what is the real reason for Saifuddin’s candidacy?

Once again, let’s walk through systematically the possible motivations behind the moves currently at play.

It is possible that Saifuddin decided to contest entirely of his own accord, being suddenly possessed of a great vision for the party and a complete reversal of his policy not to contest any major party posts. In my humble opinion, that seems out of character for the man.

The other possibility, perhaps more popular, is that Saifuddin is contesting the post at Anwar’s behest - the latter who is not comfortable with either Azmin or Khalid, as neither are as pliant to his wishes as they used to be (a decidedly different scenario appears to exist, where Saifuddin is concerned).

‘Inner circle’ could't get votes for Saifuddin

If Saifuddin contested because Anwar (and Anwar’s “inner circle” in the likes of Rafizi Ramli and daughter Nurul Izzah Anwar, who apparently have failed to get people who voted for them to vote for Saifuddin) told him to, then by implication, Anwar must have made at least one of two judgments.

The first is that Saifuddin could actually win. Were this his calculation, Saifuddin’s current status at bottom rung demonstrates that Anwar was in fact completely mistaken, and either can no longer do political math properly, or now only has laughable influence among normal PKR voting members.

The second is that even if Anwar knew that Saifuddin could not win but pressed on nonetheless, it can only mean that he still preferred Azmin as deputy president over Khalid, and sent Saifuddin into the ring to be a spoiler, pure and simple. If so, it is apparently better PKR burn under the corrupt, than be taken over by someone who Anwar sees as a viable replacement that was actually popular with normal Malaysians.

As I write, a third, slightly less likely possibility comes to mind. Sadly, I cannot say I would be entirely surprised if ultimately, all the actions of the last few months have amounted to little more than Anwar’s machinations to instal Azmin as menteri besar, to rule hand-in-glove.

For all we know, perhaps the old bonds and loyal partnership are as strong as ever, and we are seeing nothing more than “sandiwara” and shadow play, designed to use Azmin’s victory as the latest excuse to push for his election as menteri besar now.

The media is portraying the cancelling of voting as a result of trying to block Azmin from power, but given the appalling lack of transparency, who is to say that it is not in fact an attempt to block Khalid from claiming the winning vote? (We note Azmin’s relative silence this week).

Has rot reached the core?

Despite all appearances, I am not particularly one for slash-and-burn writing. It is not after all that we love Caesar less, but that we love Rome more.

I have tried to ensure that the analysis and observations above are not borne out of spite, but a considered view borne out of facts and numbers, alongside of course, the view I have formed of the personalities involved over time.

Coming out of this weekend, it may not be obvious at first as to which is worse: that Azmin would have been crowned had all the voting been allowed, or that hidden hands might be manipulating the election process to this undeniably disastrous extent.

Much as I am disgusted by Azmin’s politics, I daresay it is the latter.

PKR made the bravest, incredibly correct move to institute a system where every member is given one vote. However, even the bravest and most correct policy will be meaningless if the reality of execution proves to be the exact opposite.

We do not have enough data and proof to make any conclusions, but from what it looks like on the surface, there is no denying that the potential stench of manipulated elections are definitely as odious, if not more than anything we have accused the Election Commission of doing.

Short of an immediate and comprehensive shock to the system, it cannot be said for sure that PKR will retain what little is left of its credibility much longer.

I say these things not to increase cynicism or despair, but as a reminder to ourselves that if things get bad enough, it is better to patiently start from scratch (even if it means waiting a few GEs), than to try and carry on with an institution that has allowed rot to reach its core.

Right now, watching how the rest of this electoral process plays out will be a big indication as to whether or not things have in fact got bad enough or not.

NATHANIEL TAN is glad that both Anwar and Wan Azizah were not hurt in last night's accident. Please drive safely, one and all. He tweets @NatAsasi .