The Sarawak election will likely be the first electoral challenge for the opposition in a post-Pakatan Rakyat era.

Barring any by-election, this first electoral test will arrive at the latest, in slightly more than a year's time, when the Sarawak state assembly's five-year term expires.

This comes after DAP’s declaration on Tuesday that Pakatan is dead, following the PAS muktamar motion earlier this month to sever ties with DAP.

Yesterday, PKR formally acknowledged the dissolution of the seven-year-old coalition.

Can the opposition still perform electorally, without Pakatan as it existed?

University of Tasmania's Asian Institute director James Chin ( photo ) believes it can, at least in Sarawak.

"The demise of Pakatan will not affect (the Sarawak state elections), since Pakatan in Sarawak has always been PKR and DAP.

"PAS candidates always lose their deposits in the Sarawak elections," Chin told Malaysiakini when contacted.

Furthermore, the demise of Pakatan is largely attributed to the rift between DAP and PAS, but DAP still enjoys good relations with PKR, even though more informally now.

Chin said the hurdle the Sarawak opposition must overcome in the state election would not be the break up of Pakatan, but the state's new Chief Minister, Adenan Satem.

He said this in reference to DAP, PKR and PAS, adding that Teras and UPP were BN-friendly parties that do not really count as the opposition.

Adenan’s great in public relations

"DAP will win in the urban Chinese areas while the rest of the seats will likely be swept by BN.

"Adenan is very popular while the Dayak are divided," Chin said.

He said while popular, Adenan was not a reformer but was doing a "great public relations job".

"The people do not see that because of Sarawakian nationalism.

"Adenan ( photo ) makes anti-Umno statements once in a while, and other times talks about Sarawak nationalism, so that people will like that," he said.

Even though BN has electoral advantage, with the voters hoping for change with Adenan at the helm, Chin believes it will make little difference for the situation in Sarawak.

"As long as Taib Mahmud is the state governor, political change in Sarawak is nearly impossible," he said.

Under the banner of Pakatan Rakyat, the opposition succeeded in more than doubling its state seats, from seven to 15, with DAP taking 12 and PKR getting three.