Sarawak DAP is confident of securing as many as 22 state seats in the upcoming Sarawak election, although some political pundits predict that the urban-based opposition party may only manage to hold on to the seats it currently has, even then with a smaller majority.

The state legislative assembly has been dissolved today, and nomination and polling dates are to be announced on Thursday, the Election Commission (EC) said. There will be 82 seats up for grabs in the state election.

“My estimation is that DAP alone would win 17 to 22 seats,” state DAP leader Chong Chieng Jen told reporters in Kuching today.

Chief Minister and state BN leader Adenan Satem has said the ruling government is confident of securing between 60 and 70 seats in the coming state polls.

DAP, the state’s largest opposition party, currently has 12 seats, all of which are urban. While the electoral numbers are small, the party commands significant support in terms of popular vote.

In 2014, 58 percent of the state’s population resides in urban centres, according to the state’s Housing and Urban Development Ministry.

Including the newly created seat of Batu Kitang in Kuching, there are a total of 16 urban seats, with the ethnic Chinese making up the majority of the constituents.

Opposition lawmakers said the electoral makeup was the result of gerrymandering and accused the EC of colluding with the BN government after a re-delineation exercise in early 2014 redrew the boundaries of seats like opposition-held Ba’Kelalan, which used have a 100 percent Christian demographic.

Nine of the 11 new seats are located in rural areas. The state BN dominant partner, PBB (Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu), has said it would contest in five of them, with the remaining split among BN component parties. PBB currently controls 35 seats.

DAP may contest 31 to 35 seats, making forays into the rural seats around Kuching, Sibu and Miri. It said it has raised millions for its own rural development programme, called "Impian Sarawak."

Life getting more difficult

Pundits say the campaign has little effect as it cannot match the size of the state government's development programme.

In its 2016 state budget, tabled last December, the state government allocated RM6 billion, or nearly three-quarters of its annual budget, to development .

“We are not saying we will certainly win. But the chances of winning are very real,” said Chong.

DAP has said voter discontent is being fuelled by rising costs stemming from the goods and services tax (GST) and fluctuating currency exchange rates, as well as the magnitude of the 1MDB scandal.

"Despite all these so-called people-centric policies, do (voters) feel that their lives are getting easier every day? Do they feel that the financial burden of their cost of living is lighter? No. Life is getting more difficult, not easier," said Chong.

Last April, the state government lowered electricity tariffs to between two percent and 40 percent, with RM20 in subsidies for each low-income household. Tolls at three bridges in Kuching, Sibu and Miri have been removed and a RM1 ferry fee ceiling was enforced this year.

In addition, quit rent was abolished in March, while farmers owning less than 100 acres of land are no longer required to pay taxes. In April, Adenan announced a statewide reduction in the assessment tax rate.

"You can make all the good announcements, but voters have to ask themselves: has the government made any real difference in their living standards? We feel the answer is no," said Chong.

Real impact

Some analysts disagree. University of Tasmania's Asia Institute director, James Chin, when contacted, said the policy changes, while seen as a public relations move outside of Sarawak, have made a real impact on the daily lives of voters.

"Some voters are also pleased to hear Adenan speak out against the federal government, publicly asking them to recognise the Chinese school's Unified Examinations Syndicate.

“Adenan has also been quite supportive of Christians after the Allah issue," said Chin ( pix ) when contacted.

He projected that the DAP may only gain three to four seats at best, and may only end up retaining all their current seats with a reduced majority.

Unimas associate professor Dr Jeniri Amir, who studies Sarawakian politics, has said that DAP may not be able to increase its 12 seats and could stand to lose up to four seats if BN campaigns well.

Jeniri has said DAP may not be able to capitalise on the popularity of its leaders like Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng, who was embroiled in the Taman Manggis land controversy, or the Save Malaysia movement, a cross-party anti-Najib Razak movement led by former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

“I don’t think there is any positive sentiment towards Mahathir. This is regarded as Umno affairs, and people here don’t like Umno,” he told Malay Mail Online in an interview published today.

“Even if they come to Sarawak, local issues are still the priority. The 1MDB and RM2.6 billion donation issues are too abstract for the rural voters with lower political literacy,” he added.

DAP has said it will finalise its list with coalition partners PKR and Amanah before announcing the candidates after the nomination and polling dates are announced by the EC.

DAP had protracted negotiations with PKR, having held four meetings since last year, over which party gets to contest where.