COMMENT Emboldened by pieces by Hazlan Zakaria and P Gunasegaram, I thought to take a look at some of the pros and cons of snap elections in Penang.

Let’s jump straight into what is likely the most important question: how would snap elections impact the political landscape nationally?

To formulate a comprehensive answer, let’s briefly recap where we stand.

It’s true that Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak has survived a truly impressive array of scandals over the years.

That said, the latest investigation by the US Department of Justice and the ensuing international embarrassment is likely to prove one of the bigger challenges he’s faced.

In short, he’s weak right now; but in politics, you are really only as weak as your opponent is strong.

On the home front, we are witnessing the unprecedented move of former Umno titan Dr Mahathir Mohamad - the formation of a new party to challenge Umno, with former Umno deputy president Muhyiddin Yassin set to play a key role.

It’s far too early to call a winner in this particular match-up, but every time such a major split within Umno happens (with Tengku Razaleigh, Anwar Ibrahim and so on), the result is a tectonic shift in Malaysian politics.

Two historic precedents are of interest: a) the Umno incumbent always wins, and b) the Mahathir-backed side always wins. Perhaps now, we shall see what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.

Is replacing BN truly our goal?

Despite all the predictable brickbats from DAP fanatics (refer to inevitable comments below), I think we can all agree (or can we?) that by far the most valued grand prize is the prospect of removing BN.

What are the dynamics currently at play in that particular endeavour?

In realistic terms, removing BN is only viable with a viable opposition. Election results have demonstrated time and again, that people are most likely to support the opposition if they really look like a government in waiting.

Opposition support has never been higher than it was in 2008 and 2013, when the PKR-PAS-DAP partnership looked like a formula that could actually work - one that represented a majority of Malaysians in a balanced way, and on paper seemed to be a viable alternative government in waiting.

In contrast, the fragmented, self-centered opposition today appears to be a pale comparison.

We have Pakatan Harapan, where Amanah plays the same role MCA does in BN; we have PAS and the irrelevant Ikatan; and we have Mahathir’s yet to be formed party - all pulling in somewhat different directions.

This is of course a dream come true for BN. The only way to turn that dream into a nightmare is for all the parties above to start pulling in the same direction.

Monkey wrench

How does a prospective snap-election in Penang figure into all this?

The term ‘premature’ comes to mind.

Mahathir’s party is not even formed, much less established. In PAS, there appear to be some elements that clearly favour a more united opposition to fight BN, while others pull in a more Umno-esque direction.

I admit that there are no guarantees, but given some time, these nascent developments may mature in such a way where disparate interests align into a more united anti-BN movement.

Forcing Penang elections now however, would decisively detonate any such hopes, C4 style. It would be a monkey wrench that scuttles any potential unification projects long before they come to light.

The reason for this is that calling an election now forces several hands.

Most importantly, it will force PAS to battle Harapan.

Reasonable voices like those of PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man would clearly be drowned out, in light of the fact that PAS will have no choice but to fight Harapan head-on, or look like they are letting DAP walk all over them.

Such a battle can only be described as stupid, with absolutely no one benefiting, except of course for BN and Najib.

Indeed, it seems mind boggling that right minded people would actually consider replicating the disastrous results of Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar on a statewide level.

Pro = profit?

There is always however, method behind the madness. This is not to say necessarily that the method is an honourable one.

Lim Guan Eng and his supporters are not idiots - not by any stretch of the imagination. He did not get to be where he is by being politically inept.

Calling snap elections brings numerous benefits to Guan Eng and DAP. I would imagine the biggest among these would likely be financial.

If you are an arms dealer, the simple truth is: war is good for business.

For a politician, an election is a war, and elections are good for business.

Giving supporters something like an election to get excited about is more than likely to get all sorts of juices flowing - right into the pockets of politicians.

Elections give said politicians the perfect excuse to tell you stirring stories about how this is all about the struggle for justice, how this is your chance to stand up for your beliefs, and oh by the way, do you have a few hundred thousand ringgit to demonstrate your commitment?

A multi-million ringgit middle finger

This is not to say that calling snap elections would be an unpopular move among the majority in Penang.

‘Popular’ however, is not always the same as ‘right’.

I think popular support for snap elections in Penang can be summed up in a single sentiment: a desire to give a humongous middle finger to Najib and Umno.

We can all understand this sentiment. Who isn’t angry at what’s happening in Malaysia?

One saying goes “Don’t get angry, get even”. I have always preferred “Don’t get angry, get organised”.

I’m not sure even the former is achieved by having snap elections however. What will snap elections really prove after all?

That Penangites love Guan Eng, and believe him to be innocent? That the Chinese hate BN?

Only an idiot would need millions of ringgit to prove those blindingly obvious facts. I’m sure Merdeka Centre can run some polls and demonstrate the same for a simple five or low six digit sum.

Perhaps ‘mastubatory self-gratification’ would be a step too far in terms of describing this motive for an election, but truly, is there anything else snap elections are poised to productively demonstrate?

This election may be sold to us as an opportunity to ‘spank’ Najib, but perhaps what we are really spanking is something else entirely. Hopefully, this will not turn out to be a case of cutting the nose to spite the face.

Will an election heal or harm?

The waste of the massive public funds involved in an election aside, perhaps the question we come back to is how this impacts national politics.

It really felt like Guan Eng actively pushed for the break-up of Pakatan Rakyat. It felt (after the Kajang Move especially) like he actively engineered the scenario where PAS became an enemy rather than an ally. As a result, Hadi Awang got the perfect excuse to push himself into the waiting arms of Umno.

Maybe that benefits Guan Eng and DAP, but I cannot for the life of me see how it benefits Malaysia, or helps to heal the biggest divides that separate us as a nation.

In honesty, I can’t rightfully say for sure that giving the situation more time will result in a principled, united opposition. I think it can be said with fair certainty however, that elections in Penang will only drive the wedge further - possibly irreparably.

To summarise: no elections means at best the possibility of greater unification to topple BN, at worst status quo; yes elections almost certainly means setting back the national anti-BN project indefinitely.

Worse yet however, is the possibility that snap elections can accelerate a PAS-Umno pact. Should this be the end result, then an already painfully disunited Malaysia will be divided along racial lines worse than ever before. I can’t imagine a worse scenario.

What’s in it for who?

Just as we know a tree by its fruit, so we know a politician’s priorities by the choices they make.

After all, maybe it doesn’t matter to DAP what kind of gains BN will make in Penang’s Malay seats, as long as they consolidate their base (same as Umno’s logic with regards to Chinese/urban seats).

Maybe it doesn’t matter to Guan Eng who runs Malaysia, as long as he runs Penang.

No doubt the Penang elections will be a battle in which DAP and Guan Eng will emerge resounding victors. Just like PKR’s pyrrhic victory in Kajang however, the ultimate result could well be the rest of Malaysia losing the war.

Best case scenario

Then again, every writer should always ask whether his own prejudices and biases are distorting his opinions. Thus, for the sake of thoroughness, let us imagine a case in which snap elections are ultimately a good thing.

Snap elections could be a perfect opportunity to demonstrate a newfound opposition unity.

This would entail all three of the major anti-BN factions (Harapan, PAS, Mahathir) to at least achieve one simple goal: one-to-one fights.

If somehow snap elections in Penang can be guaranteed ahead of time to become a battleground to demonstrate that those who are anti-Najib/BN are willing to put their money where their mouth is, prioritise national interest over self interest, and ensure one to one fights, then I would await the dissolution of the Penang state assembly most eagerly, and the potential birth of a new Malaysia along with it.

NATHANIEL TAN is neither even nor organised yet, but he’s working on it.