COMMENT We woke up on Wednesday to a very jarring claim from a DAP parliamentarian that it would be ‘stupid’ for anyone not to have snap elections in Selangor before the Election Commission’s redelineation exercise is complete.

No one could plausibly deny that the redelineation will greatly benefit Barisan Nasional, as the incisive and clear analysis by Malaysiakini is quite conclusive.

On the question of a snap election in Penang, the correct course of action was fairly clear. In Selangor, the correct course is rather less obvious.

All things considered, I might argue that there is one condition for which holding a snap election in Selangor in the near future would be a good idea: if allocation for every single seat can be negotiated and publicly guaranteed beforehand to be a straight one-to-one fight between one opposition party and BN.

If the various parties that currently make up the opposition (including PAS, Amanah and Bersatu) can negotiate this situation into reality, then I might go so far as to say that a snap election in Selangor could be a brilliant idea.

However, short of this condition being fulfilled, it seems likely any attempt to call a snap election in Selangor will end in disaster.

Multi-cornered fights in Malay seats?

In examining the reasoning behind this conclusion, let’s examine some of the reasons why there are (again) strongly differing opinions as to whether holding a snap election in a Pakatan-held state is a good idea.

The pro-snap election voices in DAP are probably bolstered by the fact that there is almost no threat whatsoever to the seats DAP currently holds.

After all, of all the many splinter parties that have appeared since the Kajang Move, not a single one is non-bumiputera-based. DAP remains by far the strongest party fitting that description.

And, as far as bumiputera-majority opposition parties go, there are now no less than four: PAS, Amanah, Bersatu and, to a lesser extent, PKR.

What this means is that there is a great deal of uncertainty regarding Malay seats, where little to no similar uncertainty would be found in non-Malay seats in Selangor.

Should one of the Selangor state seats currently held by PAS or PKR become a ‘designated target’ for reallocation to Amanah or Bersatu, the result could be a domino effect involving other seats that would end in a total collapse of any electoral pact to ensure one-to-one fights.

One alternative approach is to let Amanah and Bersatu contest only in seats currently held by BN. But even PAS or PKR may not agree to this (as party members from those seats may be thoroughly unsatisfied), much less Amanah and Bersatu, which would basically only be getting crumbs from the table.

Beasts of no nation

The reasons for PKR’s very strong reluctance to have a snap election are thus not too hard to identify.

After all, what exactly is the nature of the fragile political entity that runs the state government in Selangor today?

Scratching my head trying to figure this out, I keep thinking of the title of a book written by someone I knew at university: 'Beasts of No Nation'.

Somehow, PKR, DAP and PAS agree to be allies and cooperate to govern Selangor, while fighting all the time (DAP and PAS especially) everywhere else.

One interpretation is that the only thing holding the present state government in Selangor together is incumbency and convenience.

Once elections are called, all that disappears, and all bets are consequently off. Everything will be up for negotiation, and those negotiations would be held in today’s current atmosphere of great animosity and mistrust - especially between PAS and DAP/Amanah.

It seems unlikely that the fragile alliance that governs today’s Selangor state government would withstand the pressures of all that animosity at the national level, putting us back into a situation where pride leads to countless three (or more) cornered fights.

At such a rate, BN might not even need redelineation in order to win back Selangor.

The goose that lays the golden egg

The hawks within DAP that are calling for a snap election in Selangor seem to be the same ones who called for the snap election in Penang.

The DAP big timers who were quiet then, seem to be quiet now as well - including a number of prominent Selangor DAP parliamentarians.

I suspect many in the state government, perhaps Azmin Ali (photo, above) most of all, are far too comfortable in a position of incumbency to want to rock the boat.

Citing ‘mandate’ is of course a load of nonsense, as no one cared about mandate when it came to removing the former menteri besar who was actually given a mandate by voters to lead the state.

Selangor is Pakatan’s crown jewel, and PKR’s only jewel. Helming the state gives Azmin access to unparalleled resources.

I doubt there is any way Azmin will risk the goose that lays the golden eggs - not until he’s had enough time to get every last golden egg there is to get. In this respect, there are a number of similarities to our sitting prime minister.

In any case, the conclusion remains the same. If replacing BN remains the ultimate goal, then the only thing that comes to mind, so far as regarding justification for snap polls in Selangor is publicly announced, pre-negotiated seat allocations that ensure one-to-one fights against BN in the state.

Such an amazing accomplishment would not only justify a snap election, it may give voters something to be genuinely excited about, for the first time in years.

On the other hand, calling for an election without first guaranteeing one-to-one fights is akin to shooting first and asking questions later; and in this case, I think we can safely say that the only thing we will end up shooting is ourselves in the foot.

NATHANIEL TAN enjoys stranger things.