COMMENT Donald J Trump's recent victory in the United States presidency elections can certainly be considered as a 'Black Swan' phenomenon.

The term or concept 'Black Swan' is used as a metaphor to describe events that are considered illogical, unthinkable and even impossible to take place.

Although a rarity, Black Swan events or phenomena do take place. The question is whether such developments bring about enormous changes or whether events actually succumb to reality.

Nobody would have expected Trump to have won the US presidency elections. The American media were so biased that they set the agenda for Hillary Clinton's victory.

Of course, Trump's bizarre behaviour and actions did not endear him to the opinion makers. No American presidential candidate would have said the things that Trump said.

Among other things, Trump was against immigrants, wanted to erect a wall on the American-Mexican border to prevent the flow of illegals, questioned whether there was a legitimate president of US, urged the abrogation of certain billateral and multilateral agreements with countries and even went to the extent of saying that he would arrest and jail Clinton for email fraud.

Trump won with a safe margin

However, contrary to the predictions, Trump won the presidency with a safe margin. Clinton lost but placed the blame on the FBI for making damaging statements on the allegations against her.

Since Trump has won, is he going to translate his campaign promises into actions? Or will he be subject to the realities of the larger American politics.

President Barack Obama in his last days in office has sought to allay the fears of those who think that Trump is on the path of disaster.

Obama told the media that however bizarre one thinks of Trump, his extreme campaign promises and wild gestures might fade into oblivion.

In other words, Trump will be subject to reality checks and that he cannot act according to his whims and fancies.

Even though Trump has not yet taken his oath in office, his recent statements give us some hints that, having been elected, he will be a lot more careful with his words.

He has promised not to do away with Obamacare in its entirety. He has softened his hawkish stand towards Clinton. He might not want to prosecute her after all.

Right now he is consulting with world leaders on how his regime could proceed.

Are Black Swan political events ephemeral? Black Swans might occur, but they might not have full effect simply because reality is still determined by White Swan dominance.

P RAMASAMY is Deputy Chief Minister II of Penang and the state assemblyperson for Perai.