COMMENT | It is perilous to live inside a political bubble. MCA found out about this first hand when in the 2008 general election, it saw the number of MPs slashed to half. The number was further eroded to the infamous 7-11 that is MCA today.

I urge Liew Chin Tong to stop trying to perpetuate the myth that MCA and BN will be wiped out in the next GE. All political parties have their ups and downs. History has taught us that MCA and DAP are no different.

All incumbent politicians always have a delusional view that their party or their incumbency is invincible. With strong majorities in urban areas, DAP seems to be trapped in the political bubble of their own creation. Their success, very much like the one MCA attained in 2004, is giving DAP an artificial sense of invincibility.

DAP's notion that Pakatan Harapan will win bigger in the next general election is a fallacy. The number of Chinese votes in Malaysia is finite and DAP grabbed 85 percent of them in the last general election. If doing so did not allow DAP and the Pakatan Rakyat to come into power, what makes them so sure that they are in for a bigger win without PAS?

The biggest uncertainty in the coming general election is PAS. Because DAP and the majority of their core supporters live in urban areas, they are a victim of the political bubble that this urban environment creates.

Every Chinese coffee shop in KL is a bubble filled with anti-establishment sentiment but the reality is 70 percent of the 166 seats in West Malaysia are Malay majority seats. Without PAS in its coalition, it will be impossible for DAP to penetrate those seats. Even if PAS cannot win some of these seats, they have indicated that they are still contesting, forcing a three-way contest in many of the Malay majority seats.

Latest news is that PAS is even contesting in Gombak, where PKR's Azmin Ali is the incumbent. They are also going to challenge 42 out of 59 state seats in Selangor, meaning many seats held by PKR will be at risk. DAP should not underestimate the spoiler effect in Selangor by PAS.

Alas, no Chinese gov’t

DAP is also expected to face a revolt from the rural and semi-rural Chinese voters. Most of these voters are traditionally MCA supporters who bought into the Ubah movement of GE13. They did so not so much because they supported DAP, but more because of DAP's promise of a more Chinese government. That promise obviously did not materialise even after their landslide win. The only thing that came in the rural areas were stronger PAS supporters. The catchy GE13 slogan "505, change the government" was also too irresistible for the Chinese.

After the hudud debacle and the falling out with PAS, DAP should not expect such a Chinese tsunami anymore. DAP should not unrealistically expect to gain more ground in Johor. It is in Penang where DAP should consolidate most of their resources in the coming general election.

After getting hit with numerous allegations of corruption within their home state, the Chinese voters in Penang grow weary of their rhetoric. It is tiresome for Chinese to hear anti-corruption and pro-environmentalist sermons every day, while the Penang state administration gets charged for committing those very same crimes. Lately, they have even antagonised the powerful Penang Chinese Clan Association. As the umbrella body for the 82 clan associations in Penang, they have significant influence over the voters in Penang.

Another reality is that there are only 22 Chinese majority seats left in peninsula Malaysia. All of them won by DAP in the last general election. In order to do better, DAP has to gain some serious ground in the rural Malay areas. This is again another weakness that allows Umno to keep their strong grip on the rural votes.

DAP and their rocket branding in rural Malaysia is toxic. Racist personalities like 'Superman' Hew Kuan Yau and Nga Kor Ming may attract large angry urban crowds but it is these very same chauvinist personalities that repel Malay voters in the rural areas. With the PAS grassroots machinery against them, Pakatan Harapan cannot hope to get much of the Malay vote.

More rural than urban seats

The reality of Malaysian politics is that there are more rural and semi-rural seats than urban seats. After having won the lion's share of urban seats in GE13, DAP should have spent more time trying to attract rural voters. Instead, they grew complacent, preferring to leave the rural areas to PAS.

To make matters worse, their performance in last year's Sarawak state election was dismal. Having lost 5 of their previously held 12 state seats in Sarawak, what hope does DAP Sarawak have when it comes to the federal election? How can a coalition dream of winning the federal government without Sabah and Sarawak?

The voters are wiser and warier this round. Do not take the Chinese support of DAP for granted.

KONG LEN WEI is Majlis Perbandaran Manjung councillor and MCA Youth Perak young professionals bureau.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.