How does Madani-Bersatu CSA benefit Anwar?

The Madani government and 13 other MPs signed a confidence and supply agreement (CSA) yesterday, marking the second time in Malaysian history that such a pact has been inked at the federal level.

But what's in the deal, and how does it actually benefit Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim?

Who signed the CSA?

The CSA signed yesterday is between Putrajaya and six Bersatu MPs aligned with party president Muhyiddin Yassin. Thirteen other Bersatu MPs who were suspended from the party were not part of the deal.

Other signatories include six former Bersatu MPs who had already backed Anwar (above) since late 2023. Another signatory of the CSA was Muda lawmaker Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman.

What are the CSA terms?

The CSA requires commitment from the government to table two constitutional amendments - one on PM term limits, and the other to separate the roles of attorney-general and public prosecutor.

Additionally, the MPs are to receive equal constituency development funds as backbenchers.

In return, they will support Anwar’s administration until the end of the current parliamentary term and the 2027 budget.

How does this affect Anwar's numbers in Parliament?

Before the CSA, Anwar had 149 MPs, just one more than a two-thirds majority. This number takes into account the resignation of four PKR MPs aligned to Rafizi Ramli, who have not been replaced, and the six former Bersatu MPs who were already supporting the premier before signing the agreement.

With the addition of the Muhyiddin camp and Syed Saddiq, Anwar will now have 156 MPs.

Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat said this is the primary objective of the CSA, as it gives Anwar a bigger cushion to absorb any absence of backbenchers should there be a constitutional amendment vote.

The government's previous attempt to pass the PM term limit bill failed by just two votes because eight backbenchers were absent.

Does Anwar need Bersatu MPs to stay in power if BN quits government?

Not really.

As it stands, even before the CSA, Anwar would still have enough numbers to survive a BN exit as the latter only commands 30 MPs.

If a pullout happens now, Anwar would be left with 130 lawmakers, 18 more than a simple majority.

However, the government could collapse if BN can convince Sarawak's Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) to also quit.

GPS has 23 MPs, meaning if both BN and the Sarawak coalition withdraw from Putrajaya, Anwar would be left with just 107 MPs, five fewer than a simple majority - thus paving the way for a snap election.

However, Wong said GPS is unlikely to do so.

"GPS won't want an early election mainly because it would likely return a BN-Perikatan Nasional government which would be unlikely to be generous to Sabah and Sarawak's demands," he told Malaysiakini.

Does it mean Harapan and Bersatu will work politically outside Parliament?

No. In fact, after the CSA was signed, Bersatu announced it will be clashing with Pakatan Harapan in four seats in the upcoming Malacca state election.

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