GE14 | The split among parties in both the ruling and opposition camps in the forthcoming 14th general election (GE14) has led to new political realignments.

With PAS splinter party Amanah and Bersatu, a new party founded by former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and comprising many former Umno members, joining the fight, the country’s general election enters uncharted waters.

Johor, Selangor and Kedah will be the frontline states the opposition Pakatan Harapan will focus on during this election, while for Sabah and Kelantan, the sentiments remain unpredictable.

As for Penang, there is almost no surprise, for Harapan is expected to win power again as the state is seen as DAP's home base.

Nevertheless, the battle in Penang is always interesting enough to capture the attention of the rest of the country. Malaysiakini presents in two parts several issues you may need to know about this year's Penang election.

1. An election without 1Malaysia-Penang Welfare Club: How to set the tone?

In GE13, the BN capitalised on its federal resources and power to offer several attractive promises to Penangites. One of them was to reinstate Penang's free port status, build a monorail system and also, 20,000 units of affordable houses.

Even before the campaign started, there was a mystery group, called 1Malaysia-Penang Welfare Club, that was linked to local born billionaire Low Taek Jho or Jho Low (photo), which launched a lavishly funded campaign - organising dinners, offering free food, beer and lucky draws in different constituencies.

The group staged a star-studded concert and donated money to NGOs, schools, and charity organisations, making it the main player in BN’s election campaign in Penang that year.

Surprisingly, the ostentatious campaign tactic caused a backlash, and led to the organisers being accused of vote-buying activities.

In the midst of such a scenario, Pakatan Rakyat managed to set the tone for the GE13 election in Penang as "People's power vs Money power", other than the "Ubah" slogan which was used nationwide.

The 1Malaysia-Penang Welfare Club has now ceased to exist.

In February last year, DAP announced its GE14 slogan as "Delivering Penang's Future", aiming to woo support by highlighting its administration track record.

This gave the BN the opportunity to question the state government about issues surrounding Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng's (photo) corruption case involving the purchase of his Jalan Pinhorn bungalow, flood problems affecting the state, land reclamation and the sale of land plots to private developers, escalating housing prices, hill clearing and over-development activities, especially on the island.

Since early this year, BN leaders have targeted Penang's undersea tunnel project, which is the subject of a major probe by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission.

However, it is uncertain whether the tunnel issue will make an impact on voters or even escalate to become a referendum during the election.

2. If there is no 'Malay tsunami', will Penang have a Chinese-dominant government?

With the advantage of the constituency structure, Harapan is likely to retain all the Chinese-majority seats and remain in power. The two principal battle lines would be multi-cornered fights involving Umno, PAS and Harapan's PKR, Amanah or Bersatu. These include contests in the mixed, seats mainly between Gerakan and Harapan's non-Malay candidates.

Since Malay support remains very fluid and uncertain, Harapan's main concern would be the possibility of Amanah and Bersatu being completely wiped out - and PKR failing to maintain its five Malay-majority seats.

Will the new state government then become one that is dominated by the Chinese and Indians, without any Malay representation?

As a preventive measure, Bukit Bendera MP Zairil Khir Johari (photo) is poised to contest in a state seat, either in Tanjung Bungah or Pulau Tikus, to ensure there will be Malay representation in the state executive council line-up.

3. The debut of Amanah and Bersatu

Amanah and Bersatu will each contest in three and four state seats respectively. Other than Permatang Pasir, which PAS won in 2008 and 2013, the other six state seats the two parties are eyeing are the Umno-held seats.

Bersatu will contest in Penaga, Permatang Berangan, Bertam and Teluk Pahang. In the last election, Umno won with majorities in these four seats - with margins of 1,662, 1,621, 1,642 and 801 votes respectively.

Amanah's seats are Permatang Pasir, Bayan Lepas and Sungai Dua. Umno's majority votes in Bayan Lepas and Sungai Dua were merely 357 and 458, making them marginal seats.

Seats to be contested by Bersatu appear to be the toughest nuts to crack. Other than Permatang Pasir - the sole seat held by PAS in Penang - the majority votes in the six seats these two new parties will contest in GE14 have been between 357 and 1,662 votes.

Permatang Pasir was won by PAS with a landslide 6,826 majority votes, hence it appears that Amanah may find it a challenge to secure victory in this seat, especially if this battle turns out to be a multi-cornered fight.

PAS may also pose as a stumbling block to prevent the two new Harapan parties - Amanah and Bersatu - from destabilising the strong foundation of Umno in Penang.

A Malay tsunami may be possible if the two new Harapan parties are able to break through in several seats, and PKR is able to capture another four Malay-majority seats - Pinang Tunggal, Teluk Ayer Tawar, Sungai Acheh and Pulau Betong - which were won by Umno with majority votes of between 396 and 1,587 in GE13.

And then, after GE14,  the formation of the state executive council by the component Harapan parties may need to be reviewed as well. Currently, of the 11 state exco seats, DAP holds eight and PKR, three.

Tomorrow: Part 2 -  The other seven crucial matters