GE14 | Bersatu’s final lineup for 10 parliamentary and 18 state seats in Johor shows it is gunning for at least four of those parliamentary seats by fielding high-profile leaders.

These are president Muhyiddin Yassin, secretary-general Shahruddin Md Salleh, youth chief Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman and prominent academician Maszlee Malik.

The four will contest in Pagoh, Sri Gading, Muar and Simpang Renggam respectively. Muhyiddin is also contesting the state seat of Gambir.

Currently, the Umno splinter party only holds the one parliamentary seat, Pagoh, and the state seat of Bukit Pasir (formerly Jorak).

Muhyiddin will be seeking the mandate of Pagoh voters to return to the Dewan Rakyat for his eighth term in the constituency.

With Bukit Pasir incumbent Shahruddin being moved to Sri Gading, it shows Bersatu is all out to capture the central Johor seat. He may face internal discontent over the move, however.

Shukur Mohamad, the son of Johor state assembly speaker Mohamad Aziz, was initially tipped to contest in Sri Gading or the state seat of Parit Raja, which falls under the parliamentary constituency.

Also speculated for the seat was Bersatu Sri Gading chief Tariq Ismail, grandson of former deputy prime minister Dr Ismail Abdul Rahman.

But according to Free Malaysia Today, Tariq has accepted the decision, while Shukur told Malaysiakini he will assist Shahruddin's quest in Sri Gading.

A fifth seat?

Apart from the four parliamentary seats, Bersatu’s chances also look good in the parliamentary seat of Tanjung Piai, despite the party fielding relative greenhorn Dr Md Farid Md Rafik.

Like the four seats mentioned above, the constituency’s demographics are over 30 percent non-Malay and about 50 percent Malay – meaning it could benefit from the much-touted ‘Malay tsunami’ flooding Johor.

While Muhyiddin has secured Pagoh as Bersatu's bridgehead in Johor, the party is also focusing on Sri Gading, Muar, Simpang Renggam and Tanjung Piai because all were won by BN in 2013 with less than a 5,000 vote majority.

In Pakatan Harapan’s calculations, the chances of winning said seats look good if 85 percent of the non-Malay vote can be secured, along with at least 35 percent of the Malay vote.

For the record, PAS-led Gagasan Sejahtera is fielding candidates in all five seats, but it is as yet uncertain if the coalition will split the Malay vote.

Apart from the five winnable seats, Bersatu also has its sights on Mersing, Kota Tinggi and Pengerang in the east, Tenggara in central Johor, and Pontian in the south.

In the last polls, however, BN won big in the five seats, by at least a 13,000 vote majority. This was mainly attributed to a strong Felda presence in Mersing, Kota Tinggi, Pengerang and Tenggara, and kampung parit voters in Pontian.

All five constituencies also have less than 25 percent non-Malay voters.

Given this scenario, Bersatu has understandably gone with local leaders or newcomers in all of these seats, with Nasir Ibrahim for Mersing, Azlinda Abd Latif for Kota Tinggi, Norliza Ngadiman for Pengerang, Norjepri Mohamed Jelani for Tenggara, and Karmaine Sardini for Pontian.