GE14 | In the last general election, the BN was caught by surprise when it only managed to defend the parliamentary seat of Pasir Gudang by a narrow margin, as Mohamed Khaled Nordin's 2008 majority of 17,821 evaporated to 935 when Normala Abdul Samad succeeded him.

In the 14th general election, BN is bringing back Khaled in Pasir Gudang, despite the caretaker Johor menteri besar also defending his incumbency in Permas, which is a state seat within Pasir Gudang.

Umno sources told Malaysiakini that Normala was not well-liked and large numbers of Wanita Umno members, particularly in five polling districts, boycotted the last polls in protest. This was coupled with strong anti-establishment in the Chinese community.

Umno believes bringing back Khaled, a favourite figure in Pasir Gudang, at a parliamentary level, can help overcome these problems. But a convergence of factors are conspiring against him and is threatening to eclipse his popularity.

There are growing murmurs about economic hardship in the Malay ground despite Pasir Gudang's booming development, having transformed from an agriculture area into a port city, with heavy industry such as ship-building and oil and gas services.

On a hot Thursday afternoon, two young men walked into a sundry shop and handed RM1 for cigarettes.

The shopkeeper, Maya (not her real name), knew that it was illegal to sell cigarettes in loose packs, but did so anyway.

“I pity them. They can't afford to buy a whole pack of cigarette... Sometimes, customers can't afford to even buy a whole pack of Maggi noodles and I have to sell them individually.

"Especially in the middle of the month (when people have used up their salary), I have to sell single egg instead of a pack of 10," she said.

Shifting Malay ground

The two Malay youths said the rising cost of living had made it hard to for them to save money.

"My six family members will vote PKR in this election," said one of the youth. Both of them were former BN voters.

This was in the mixed-race Masai polling district, where BN won by 1,689 votes to 1,328.

It is the same familiar story heard in many places across Pasir Gudang and even in Malay majority areas, such as Taman Air Biru which comprises 82 percent Malay, four percent Chinese and 13 percent Indian.

A hawker who only wished to be identified as Ikzal, said he will vote for PKR this time because of expensive essentials. This was despite voting for BN in previous general elections.

For PKR's Pasir Gudang candidate Hassan Karim, the shifting Malay ground, which is BN's key vote bank, was unsurprising.

“Economic factor and goods and services tax (GST) are real issues. In the past, Malay would openly support BN. Even if they support the opposition, they won't do it publicly.

"But many have now become undecided," he told Malaysiakini.

The shifting Malay ground is not Khaled's only concern. Due to Pasir Gudang's role as a port city, many East Malaysians have settled there for work. Some have registered to vote in Pasir Gudang.

On paper, the electoral rolls list 1,664 Sabahans and 1,748 Sarawakians as voters in Pasir Gudang.

However, Pasir Gudang Bersatu leader Alex Puspah said this is grossly underestimated as many Muslim Bumiputera from East Malaysia were listed as "Malays" in the electoral roll for Pasir Gudang.

East Malaysian strength

Alex said the true numbers are revealed when going through the IC numbers in the electoral roll to find the state digit of 12 and 13, which indicates that someone is born in Sabah or Sarawak respectively.

"Then, you will find that there are some 7,000 Sabah and 6,000 Sarawak-born voters in Pasir Gudang," said Alex, a Kota Kinabalu native, who was in charge of East Malaysian affairs in Pasir Gudang while he was still in Umno.

Khaled is well aware of this and has given them special attention, including allocating millions for the construction of markets specifically for East Malaysians in Pasir Gudang, making him a popular figure.

Faisal Sisar (photo), the head of one such market, praised Khaled for creating business opportunities for East Malaysians in Pasir Gudang.

The Umno branch leader believes that Khaled can capture the bulk of the East Malaysian votes.

But the incumbent MB is now facing headwinds in the community too, not from Pakatan Harapan, but across the South China Sea, in the form of Parti Warisan Sabah.

While campaigning among the Sabah diaspora last week, Khaled strangely told them not to seek out Warisan as he could take care of them in Pasir Gudang. 

In response, Warisan deputy president Darell Leiking urged the Sabah diaspora who vote in West Malaysia, including in Pasir Gudang, to back Harapan.

Warisan, which has emerged as a formidable force in Sabah, also has influence among the Sabahan diaspora.

Khaled's popularity, Najib's unpopularity

Khaled too has had his own troubles. The move to field him in both a parliamentary and state seat led to speculations that he may be dropped as Johor menteri besar after the general election and moved to the federal government, and this caused uncertainty in his machinery.

Khaled was coy about this, but finally confirmed, six days into campaigning, that he was BN's choice for menteri besar candidate after the general election.

Despite the headwinds, Khaled's popularity will see him put up a strong fight.

Even Harapan campaigners have avoided direct attacks against the caretaker MB for fear that it may backfire. Instead, they leverage on caretaker prime minister Najib Abdul Razak's unpopularity.

“We will not personally attack Khaled, we just ask why he is with Najib on the same boat... the Umno supporter will easily listen to it," Hassan said.

Najib has not set foot in Johor throughout the campaign period since April 28.

With less than two days of campaigning left, Khalid also confirmed that Najib will not be coming to Johor.

Khaled must defend Pasir Gudang despite the many factors that are beyond his control working against him or risk seeing his political position weakened even if he retains his stronghold of Permas.

In the last general election, Khaled won Malay-majority Permas by a 5,752-vote majority. The other state seat in Pasir Gudang is the mixed seat of Johor Jaya, which the DAP won by a 1,460-vote majority.