Covid-19 - Modelling predicts 8k cases a day by June if no SOP compliance
The Health Ministry's modelling is forecasting more than 8,000 new Covid-19 cases a day by June if the public does not comply with standard operating procedures (SOPs) against Covid-19.
The latest estimate, first published on May 12, is an upward revision from earlier forecasts.
The Health Ministry's modelling is forecasting more than 8,000 new Covid-19 cases a day by June if the public does not comply with standard operating procedures (SOPs) against Covid-19.
The latest estimate, first published on May 12, is an upward revision from earlier forecasts.
Previously, the Health Ministry had forecasted around 5,000 new cases per day by June.
However, the real number has consistently exceeded previous forecasts. The latest estimate is more in line with the actual number of cases.
SOPs compliance is expected to improve following the implementation of the third movement control order (MCO 3.0) which took effect on May 12.
The model predicts that if there is strict compliance with the SOPs, then the daily number of cases can be reduced to under 1,000.
As of yesterday, the seven-day average for new Covid-19 cases stood at 4,307.
The infectivity rate yesterday was at 1.13. It must be brought down to under 1.0 to stop the exponential growth of new Covid-19 cases.
The infectivity rate has not fallen below 1.0 since April 7.
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