analysis

Ruling coalition Barisan Nasional's thumping victory in the Indera Kayangan by-election on Saturday can also be seen as a personal conquest for two Umno leaders who had been languishing in the shadow of party leadership.

The big majority achieved by MCA's Oui Ah Lan, especially due to the large shift by the Malay Malaysian voters, will put Umno vice-president Muhammad Muhammad Taib right back in the main frame in the leadership strata.

And for Perlis Menteri Besar and state Umno chief Shahidan Kassim, he would have regained the trust of party bigwigs which he lost after Umno was defeated in the Arau parliamentary by-election by arch-rival PAS in May 1998.

The relentless work by both Muhammad Taib and Shahidan as joint co-ordinators of the Umno by-election machinery to bring back the Malay vote definitely caught the eye of Umno president and Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

In fact, after the results were announced, the premier's first comments on the sweet success contained words of thanks to Shahidan, Umno and the state BN in that order. It must be noted that although he thanked the candidate, he never mentioned her by name. Nor did he thank Oui's party, MCA.

More telling was the premier's statement that Umno and the BN had regained their "honour" by winning the by-election.

The tag-team tactic was simple. While Muhammad Taib worked in the background, Shahidan was the face the public saw on the media. The Menteri Besar appeared on television canvassing for support, announcing new state plans for the constituency, and alleging the opposition of violent conduct and lambasting them for it.

And with Muhammad Taib backing him up from the party headquarters, Shahidan also organised many dinners to entice voters, especially the Malay Malaysians.

Plus points

For Shahidan, having a vice-president of the party on his side also had other plus points. He could direct the party's election machinery to work at its fullest capability and capacity. He could also direct party finances towards efforts to regain the Malay vote which had swung towards the opposition in the 1999 general elections.

Muhammad Taib also has the clout to organise various functions on behalf of the party and to mobilise other party organs, like Puteri Umno and Umno Youth, to pull their weight.

Whatever the stratagem, it managed to attract about 40 percent of the Malay vote to the ruling coalition, clinching a resounding victory for BN.

At the post-election media briefing, Shahidan voiced his relief of having delivered the Malay vote.

"It is a personal victory for me... we have redeemed ourselves after the defeat to PAS in Arau," he said.

As for Muhammad Taib, although there was no public acknowledgment by the premier for the victory, he will still be content with how things had turned out.

The ball is now on his court and it will be up to him to project himself to Mahathir his credentials as a future top-level leader in the country.

He must be pleased to have finally proven his worth as the party veep. He has lost the way in the party hierarchy as well as in his political career after his fall-out with top leaders as a result of his numerous 'personal follies'.

Reversing the trend

Although party delegates voted him into the leadership circle, he was still the man in the sidelines. From being the darling of the media during his tenure as the Selangor Menteri Besar, he became the forgotten man of the press.

However, his comeback has not been surprising at all. He was said to be consulted by the prime minister in picking the present Selangor Menteri Besar, Dr Mohd Khir Toyo, two years ago. And he must have earned some points from the party leadership to be sent to Indera Kayangan to spearhead their campaign.

Now, Muhammad Taib is talking about continuing the trend of getting back the Malay voters to the BN's fold nationwide for the next general elections to be held before 2004.

"We will now concentrate our efforts to regain Kelantan and Terengganu as well as seats that we lost in Selangor, Kedah and Pahang in the 1999 general elections," he was reported to have said yesterday.

In all these states, Umno lost its core Malay support to the opposition, especially Keadilan, over the Anwar Ibrahim issue.

And now Anwar's former factional ally in the Wawasan team that stood for party elections in 1993 and 1996, will most probably have earned the party's trust to do just that and further his political career once again.