Mahfuz hard at work to secure swing from PN supporters in Alor Mengkudu

STATE POLLS | It was a relatively quiet Wednesday night in Taman Saga, Alor Setar with the exception of one dimly lit tent sprawled with the political flags of BN and Harapan.

Gathered there was a small crowd of 30, spread out on plastic chairs, listening attentively to the man of the hour - Kedah Pakatan Harapan chief Mahfuz Omar.

Mahfuz, who is an Amanah vice-president, had been tasked with a difficult mission to retain the Alor Mengkudu seat for Harapan in the upcoming state elections.

And while the crowd was small, as the campaign period winded down, each vote, each engagement mattered.

“A few of us have already made a decision on who we will vote for come polling day, and there is a large part that hasn’t or will change their minds.

“In these very last moments, perhaps, there is a realisation to switch from PN to Harapan, and toward unity.

“I hope that we are able to use the senses that have been given to us by God to make a comparison on what is good and bad,” Mahfuz said.

Taman Saga is the biggest polling district in Alor Mengkudu with 6,435 voters, and during the 15th general election, 63 percent of them had voted for Harapan making it a pretty safe bet.

However, the same can’t be said for Alor Mengkudu as a whole.

During GE15, only 27 percent of voters in the state seat sided with Harapan at the parliament level, while 57 percent voted for PN.

Another 13 percent of voters chose BN, and three percent voted for other candidates.

On paper, this means that even with the combined votes of BN supporters, Harapan does not have enough to win the seat unless there is a swing from PN supporters.

When Malaysiakini caught up with Mahfuz’s campaign trail on Wednesday, Mahfuz, however, appeared optimistic that he could make this happen.

“In the last elections, we found that there were a number of BN and Harapan voters that swayed to PN, or just chose not to vote.

“This is particularly evident in BN that didn’t want to vote, so we only have to maintain the votes (we obtained in GE15) and bring a certain percentage of upset voters that voted for PN as well as those that didn’t vote,” he said.

Asked about the percentage of swing from PN, he needed, Mahfuz declined to divulge details.

“I can’t tell you that, that’s my secret. But we have done a simulation where my team, as well as a lecturer from UUM (Universiti Utara Malaysia) conducted simulations and we all got the same results,” he said.

While Mahfuz was tight-lipped about the specifics, Malaysiakini’s own simulations estimate that Harapan can win the seat if it can get at least 80 percent of their supporters in the constituency to vote - even if 10 percent of BN voters swing to PN.

The catch, however, is that Harapan and BN will need a 20 percent swing of voters away from PN for this mission to succeed.

If there is no swing, PN will more than likely capture Alor Mengkudu.

Despite the high stakes, Mahfuz’s campaign, when Malaysiakini trailed him on Wednesday, was rather laid back.

That day he met with sick folks in Taman Saga, taking down their details so that he can find ways to help them such as by appealing on their behalf to the Social Security Organisation (Socso) in order to get the help they need.

The visits were seemingly carefree, with Mahfuz chatting with those he met and even sitting down with them for a sip of tea, a bowl of laksa, and a bite of kuih.

Mahfuz told Malaysiakini that the trends of this state elections much differed compared to last year’s GE15, opining that the political situation was more subdued despite being in the final leg of campaigning.

Voters no longer bewitched

He linked this to voters being more rational in their decisions and not being so driven by sentiments and emotions compared to last year.

“In the last election, they were more easily swayed by issues such as Islamic and Malay importance.

“Especially for the Malays, it was to the extent that they made half-baked decisions or were not away. Some like to say it’s like they ‘kena pukau’ (bewitched), hence why there was a wave.

“But to me, while some claim there is still that ‘wave’, it has begun to go down. I am of the belief that there is no tsunami that happens every day, month, or year.

“And that’s the temperature of our politics right now, it’s going down,” he said.

Mahfuz had been one of many Harapan and BN leaders who were swept away by the PN wave in the last election, causing him to lose the Pokok Sena parliament seat which he had held for three terms.

A few supporters Malaysiakini met at the ceramah, who only wanted to be known as Rashidah and Azizah, expressed that they would cast their vote for Mahfuz despite being long-term supporters of BN.

“We have no issues (with the BN-Harapan coalition). We know Mahfuz very well,” said Rashidah.

Alor Mengkudu, thus, is a second chance for Mahfuz to become an elected representative once again.

But he’s not the only one seeking redemption.

Mahfuz’s opponent for the seat is former footballer, Muhamad Radhi Mat Din.

The two had squared off in Pokok Sena in 2018, with the Amanah vice-president emerging as the winner.

And the rematch will take place this Saturday.

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