Survey: Harapan has the edge in Sg Bakap polls

• UPDATED 9.06PM | Added factors that could decide the election according to IDE.

SG BAKAP BY-ELECTION | A survey conducted by the Darul Ehsan Institute (IDE) found that voters in the Sungai Bakap state constituency are leaning towards Pakatan Harapan.

However, IDE chairperson Mohammad Redzuan Othman cautioned that support for Harapan does not necessarily translate into a win for its candidate Joohari Ariffin in the poll this Saturday.

“I want to state based on the research conducted that the trend or support is indeed leaning towards Harapan or the Unity Government.

“But, I want to emphasise that this support depends on the remaining four days of the campaign.

“Both parties are executing their strategies and support for the party does not necessarily equate to a win,” he said at a press conference in Shah Alam today.

According to him, the survey by the Selangor government think tank involved 786 respondents over four days starting from June 19 until nomination day.

“Based on the study, voter support for the Harapan/BN coalition is at 53.2 percent, while for Perikatan Nasional it is 43 percent, with 3.8 percent of voters undecided or still on the fence.

“Meanwhile, Malay voter support for the unity government candidate is 36 percent. However, I want to highlight that support for a party does not mean they will vote for that party’s candidate,” he said.

The Sungai Bakap by-election is being held following the death of the PAS incumbent Nor Zamri Latiff on May 24.

Joohari faces PN’s Abidin Ismail in a straight fight on July 6.

Malay support, voter turnout critical

Redzuan said Joohari needs a four percentage points increase in Malay support to reclaim the seat from PN.

He noted that in the 2023 state election, the Harapan candidate at the time - Nurhidayah Che Rose - secured 32 percent of the Malay vote but was defeated by the late Zamri by 1,563 votes.

“With an expected voter turnout rate of 60 percent, Harapan needs 36 percent of the Malay vote to win,” he said.

He added that Harapan must also achieve a high turnout among Chinese and Indian voters if it hopes to defeat PN.

“Surveys show Harapan support among Chinese and Indian voters at 82 percent and 77 percent respectively,” Redzuan said.

However, the survey also indicated that PN might retain the seat with a slim majority if the voter turnout exceeds 70 percent.

“This is because Chinese voter support for Harapan remains but the voter turnout would be somewhat critical.

“The strength of the candidates is seen as balanced, as both have their respective advantages.

“Joohari is known as educated and is a candidate from a party supported by voters, while Abidin is better known among voters and is seen as a religious figure because he is from PAS,” he said.

A total of 39,279 voters in Sungai Bakap are eligible to vote in this by-election.

The electorate consists of 39,222 ordinary voters and 57 police personnel.

The by-election will use nine regular polling centres comprising 65 polling stations and streams, as well as one early voting centre and stream.

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