Analysts: Nenggiri polls crucial test for Umno

After the Madani government’s loss at Sungai Bakap, the Nenggiri by-election will be another test for the Pakatan Harapan-BN collaboration, as well as BN-Umno’s influence on voters.

The Nenggiri state constituency is under the Gua Musang parliamentary constituency in Kelantan, and Umno has monopolised the hearts of voters there for decades.

However, the “green wave” in the 15th general election swept over Umno veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah who lost Gua Musang by a slim majority of 163 votes.

Simply put, the Nenggiri by-election on Aug 17 is a critical battleground for Umno to prove it is still a force to be reckoned with and that its grassroots are no longer unhappy with it.

Tengku Razaleigh, known as Ku Li, has been appointed election director for the upcoming polls, showing Umno still needs the touch and aura of the veteran politician.

As Perikatan Nasional-Bersatu won the Nenggiri state seat with a slim majority of 810 votes in last year’s state election, there is still a chance for Umno to regain the seat.

However, it would not be an easy task as PN, which rules the Kelantan state government, has a plethora of ammunition to use against the federal government.

Among the major topics that could be raised by PN are national issues, as evidenced in the Sungai Bakap campaign.

Political analyst and associate professor Mazlan Ali said the Nenggiri polls would be the “best place” for Umno to gauge its support in the Malay-majority seat.

“The poll would be a benchmark for us to see whether Umno can make a comeback, or still needs time to improve its influence.

“Based on my observation in the Kuala Kubu Baharu and Sungai Bakap by-elections, I find there has been a surge in Malay support for Harapan-BN involving Umno supporters.

“Although Harapan lost the Chinese votes (in Sungai Bakap), Umno contributed 60.5 percent of its ‘white voters’ to the Harapan candidate.

“This is how the candidate managed to garner more than 10,000 votes, whereas around 39.5 percent of Umno’s ‘white voters’ chose PN,” Mazlan told Malaysiakini.

“White voters” is a term indicating voters who strongly support a certain party, while “black” indicates strongly opposed, and “grey” being on the fence.

“Umno’s contribution to Harapan in the last two by-elections is significant, as a way to repay the unwavering support shown by Harapan supporters to Umno in the Pelangai by-election,” Mazlan added.

There are 20,256 registered voters in the Nenggiri state constituency, of which 80 percent are Malays, 0.3 percent Chinese, and the remaining are others, including Orang Asli.

Mazlan, who is a senior lecturer at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, said the Nenggiri polls would also be significant to see where youth support is leaning.

“We will see whether the trend of young supporters voting for PN is happening nationwide, or is only confined to Malay-majority areas, such as the east coast and north of the peninsula.

“The polls would also test the support for PN, especially Bersatu, after its representative Mohd Azizi Abu Naim voiced support for the government,” he said.

Mohd Azizi’s act triggered the Nenggiri by-election after his Bersatu membership was automatically terminated.

Lessons from Sungai Bakap

Political analyst and associate professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the Nenggiri by-election would test Umno over several factors.

First, it will reveal whether voters still trust the party, which has been at the forefront of the country’s political scene for decades.

“The polls would see whether the Umno leadership and the strategy it uses to attract voters are effective.

“Voters will see how they (Umno leaders) handle local and national issues that are relevant to the electorate,” said the Universiti Malaya lecturer.

Elaborating, Awang Azman said Umno should take lessons from the Sungai Bakap polls and avoid doing things that may drive away voters.

“While a victory (at the polls) could buoy Umno’s morale, a loss could raise more questions and criticisms against the party’s leadership,” he added.

Universiti Utara Malaysia political analyst and professor Rusdi Omar said the Nenggiri polls would serve as a platform for Umno to redeem its dignity after losing in the last Kelantan state election.

He said the party still stands a chance, taking into account the Gua Musang political context.

“Although this area is Malay-majority, the people in Gua Musang can be considered wala’ (loyal). The outcome of the last polls shows that Umno still wields influence.

“In fact, the party won the Galas state constituency (under the Gua Musang parliamentary constituency).

“Umno has to field a popular candidate who is close to the rakyat, including the youth. Umno has to go all out, this time.

“The party’s machinery has to be more in sync with its Harapan counterpart, including disseminating information about the government’s initiatives for the rakyat,” said Rusdi.

“I also see that Umno has a better chance if PN fields a candidate from Bersatu, rather than PAS,” he added.

Rusdi further said the Nenggiri polls would also gauge whether Umno is ready to face the 16th general election.

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