UNDP: M'sia will be hotter, become super-aged nation by 2056

Malaysia is heading towards experiencing higher levels of scorching heat and becoming a super-aged society in about 30 years, sooner than most would expect.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) warned that the country could have its hottest day at 40.8°C in 2050 and be a super-aged nation by 2056.

In a report titled “Transitioning Futures, Anticipating Change: Socioeconomic Futures of Malaysia's Climate and Demographic Transition”, the UNDP said Malaysians nationwide raised concerns about disruptive changes wrought by future climate and demographic shifts.

"Malaysia’s temperatures have been on the rise with 0.13°C every decade and could increase to 1.6°C in 2050 and 4°C in 2100.

"The hottest day could be 40.8°C in 2050 and 43.2°C in 2100 as compared to the recent April 2024 heatwave where temperatures soared between 35 and 40°C.

"Malaysia will be an aged nation by 2044 and super-aged by 2056.

"The transition from ageing to aged to super-aged is faster than many other countries,” it said.

Billions needed

Because of these issues, the report said that Malaysia will need an estimated RM392 billion to adapt to climate change in the next 50 years.

Slower population growth and a shrinking workforce will also cause the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to decline by a third by 2050, it added.

Climate change and issues of an ageing workforce will critically impact economic structures and labour markets as they both influence livelihoods and the country’s economic stability.

"As climate change disrupts traditional industries such as agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism, the demand for new skills and jobs in renewable energy and sustainable practices becomes imperative.

"Simultaneously, demographic shifts, such as ageing populations and migration patterns, further strain existing economic frameworks,” it noted.

Another area that must be addressed is elder care as they comprise a segment of the population vulnerable to climate impacts such as extreme weather events, heatwaves and climate-sensitive diseases, it said.

"Climate and demographic changes will intersect in almost all aspects of our lives, reshaping the way we live, work and play,” it added.

The report noted that Malaysia has made progress in combating the issues through the growing digital economy, the emergence of the silver economy, and Bank Negara Malaysia’s focus on a green economy, but that other challenges will arise.

One of the challenges is related to the gig economy, as it raises concerns about underemployment and loss of productivity due to heat stress.

At the same time, Malaysia’s sustainable development is impeded by growing carbon emissions and consumption, among other environmental concerns.

To tackle the twin issues of the climate and demographic transition, the report recommended:

• Equitable access to healthcare

• Building climate resilience

• Inclusive social safety nets and strengthening national fiscal space

• Visionary leadership and accountable governance

• Future-ready work and workforce development

• Sustainable resource management and self-sufficiency

It warned that Malaysia could face three possible transitions: the best-case scenario (just transition), a disruptive one (shock transition), and the worst-case scenario (failed transition).

Rising cost of living

UNDP resident representative for Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei, Niloy Banerjee, addressed bread and butter issues.

"Personally, what matters to me is the dramatic increase in food prices in the market.

"With subsidies being (withdrawn) and considering that 65 percent of food prices are rising, I’m concerned about retirees with limited savings.

"With an aging population, I worry that their savings may not be sufficient in the future,” he said at the report launch.

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