KINIGUIDE | Shifting alliances as battle royale for Negeri Sembilan begins

KINIGUIDE | Riding high on its landslide victory in Johor, BN heads into the Negeri Sembilan election under a dramatically different political landscape from just three years ago.

In the 2023 state election, BN and Pakatan Harapan worked together under an electoral pact to blunt Perikatan Nasional's advances, helping Harapan retain the Minangkabau state.

This time, however, BN is contesting alongside the PAS-led Perikatan Nasional, while Harapan finds itself sharing the opposing space with Bersatu - despite the latter remaining a PN component.

Bersatu is also challenging four candidates from Parti Wawasan Negara, PN’s newest component, led by former Bersatu deputy president Hamzah Zainudin.

For BN, defeating Harapan could pave the way for it to reclaim Negeri Sembilan, while PAS and Wawasan Negara stand to benefit if Bersatu's influence is weakened.

Malaysiakini takes a closer look at the shifting alliances, the key battlegrounds and the personalities shaping the contest.

Facts and figures

This would be the 16th state election for Negeri Sembilan, which used to be a BN stronghold for 60 years until the 2018 general election when Harapan recorded a historical victory against the grand coalition at federal and state levels.

According to the Election Commission, a total of 99 candidates representing seven political parties and four independent contestants are running for the 36 state legislative assembly seats in this round.

Harapan is fielding candidates in all 36 seats, followed by BN (25), Bersatu (24), and PN (11), while Berjasa, Asli, and PSM are each contesting one seat.

Whoever captures 19 seats will be able to form the next state government, as per the first-past-the-post system.

Eleven seats will see straight fights between BN-PN and Harapan, while another 21 will feature three-cornered contests. The remaining races comprise two four-cornered contests and two five-cornered contests.

The latest electoral roll shows a total of 889,490 eligible voters across the 36 state seats, which are under eight parliamentary areas. They include over 22,300 military and police personnel and their spouses.

Main players

The election will be dominated by contests between BN and Harapan, which will face off in 25 constituencies, of which nine are seeing a straight fight.

PN, meanwhile, has embraced its new role as a “good friend” to BN and is contesting the remaining 11 seats, where it would face Harapan in straight fights or multi-cornered contests that include Bersatu and independent candidates.

Of the 11 PN contenders, five are from PAS, four from Wawasan Negara, and one each from Gerakan and MIPP.

Bersatu, meanwhile, enters the state polls as a lone ranger for the first time after being abandoned by PN and will try to defend two seats that it won in 2023, namely Labu and Gemas, while making an attempt at 22 others.

Of the 24 seats that Bersatu is vying for, three are represented by the Malay-based party’s associate members while two others are from Urimai, a relatively new political party linked to Bersatu through a multiracial platform initiated by its president Muhyiddin Yassin called Ikatan Prihatin Rakyat.

BN-Harapan showdown

While it used to dominate the Negeri Sembilan state assembly, BN is putting its bet on the alliance with PN to cross the 19-seat threshold for a simple majority.

If BN manages to defend all of its 14 seats, the coalition just needs to secure five more to form a state government, either with or without PN’s assistance.

According to an analysis of vote shares during the 15th general election, a BN-PN collaboration could flip five Harapan-held seats - Chennah, Sikamat, Klawang, Ampangan, and Pilah.

Chennah has been held by DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke for three consecutive terms. However, the 2022 general election results suggest that a combined BN-PN vote would have secured about 56 percent of the ballots cast in the constituency, comfortably outpolling Harapan.

A similar pattern emerged in Sikamat, the former seat of caretaker menteri besar Aminuddin Harun, where the combined BN-PN vote would have reached 58 percent.

BN is contesting both Chennah and Sikamat, while PN is taking Klawang, Ampangan, and Pilah.

On the other hand, Harapan appears to have a relatively secure grip on 10 of its strongholds, allowing it to focus resources on defending the remaining seven seats while attempting to make further gains.

Uphill battle for Bersatu

Bersatu has described its electoral debut using its own logo as a test of its own strength.

Based on Malaysiakini’s analysis, Bersatu has avoided key BN and Harapan strongholds in Chennah, Bahau, Lobak, Pilah, Johol, Bukit Kepayang, Chembong, Rantau, Chuah, Lukut, Gemencheh, and Repah.

However, its candidates will go head-to-head with eight PN candidates in Klawang, Serting, Sikamat, Ampangan, Mambau, Paroi, Bagan Pinang, and Gemas.

Bersatu is also challenging BN in 16 other seats, 10 of which are Malay-majority areas, where voters’ loyalties will be tested.

In Gemas, the Bersatu candidate is facing incumbent Ridzuan Ahmad, who won the seat in 2023 on a PN ticket but has recently defected to Wawasan.

According to political analyst Syaza Shukri, the only seat that Bersatu might stand a chance is Labu, which is held by state Bersatu chief Hanifah Abu Baker.

“I can’t see how it can win more Malay votes than BN-PN combined. Maybe in Labu there’s better chances, since the PN candidate in Gemas is the incumbent and due to BN putting a new face (in Labu),” she told Malaysiakini.

What else to watch for?

In Pilah, Harapan and BN are featuring female candidates, where Noorzunita Begum Ibrahim from PKR will be defending her seat against BN’s S Leza Yasin.

Danni Rais, the son of former Bersatu leader and veteran politician Rais Yatim, is recontesting the Klawang seat under a PN banner for another face-off with his cousin, Harapan’s incumbent Bakri Sawir. Danni, formerly from Bersatu, is also challenging Bersatu’s Adib Musa.

In Sikamat, PN is fielding former Malacca top cop Razali Abu Samah against Bersatu information chief Tun Faisal Ismail Aziz and PKR’s Nor Azman Mohamad, who is defending the seat for Harapan after Aminuddin’s move to Linggi.

Aminuddin has denied claims of seeking a “safe seat” away from Sikamat, describing Linggi as a BN stronghold under his Port Dickson MP seat.

‘Royal crisis’ 

A royal dispute is expected to shape campaign narratives aimed at capturing the support of the majority Malay-Muslim electorate.

The dispute arose after the Undang Yang Empat - the four territorial chieftains empowered under Negeri Sembilan’s adat system - sought to remove Yang di-Pertuan Besar Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir.

The Harapan-led state administration maintained its support for Tuanku Muhriz and disputed the attempted removal.

READ MORE: Royal rumble: N Sembilan chieftains 'sack' ruler in tit-for-tat

The controversy subsequently spilt into state politics when Negeri Sembilan Umno’s 14 assemblypersons withdrew their support for Aminuddin on April 27, citing a loss of confidence over the menteri besar’s handling of the royal dispute.

BN’s withdrawal left Aminuddin without majority support in the 36-member state assembly.

However, Tuanku Muhriz allowed Aminuddin to remain as menteri besar and lead a minority administration, frustrating BN’s attempt to form a new government with PN.

The stalemate ended when the state assembly was dissolved on June 5, but its impact is expected to weigh on voters’ minds come polling day.

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