Questions remain over Aminuddin's 'suicidal' move to contest in Linggi

N SEMBILAN POLLS | With the Negeri Sembilan election campaign past its midpoint, it is still a mystery why caretaker menteri besar Aminuddin Harun made a “suicidal decision” to contest in the Umno stronghold of Linggi.

So far, all readable signs seem not to be in Aminuddin's favour.

The Linggi state seat is historically regarded as a BN stronghold, with the only recorded instance of the seat changing hands being in 1969 via a DAP candidate.

Since then, Linggi has remained a BN bastion.

This perception is linked to the multi-generational legacy of six-term assemblyperson Isa Samad, whose father Samad Said and grandfather Said Mohamed have also held the seat. The seat’s incumbent is Umno supreme council member Faizal Ramli.

After several days camping out and surveying the ground in Linggi, Malaysiakini has gained a clearer picture of the challenge Aminuddin faces when the state heads to the polls this Saturday.

Loyal to BN

For one, most Malay voters Malaysiakini met have been loyal to BN for generations.

A voter who wished to be known as Haji Mad shared that sentiment, along with confidence that the seat will remain difficult for Pakatan Harapan to challenge.

Despite Aminuddin's status as a high-profile candidate, Mad said the politician has been unable to win support, particularly among the older demographic.

"The majority of voters here are (for) BN, especially the older folk, (but some) youth are also with BN, following in their parents' footsteps.

"Besides that, the youth here are also close to Faizal, who is easily accessible.

"If you ask me, it’s quite difficult for Aminuddin to win here even though he was the menteri besar," he said.

Plagued by adat perpatih crisis

Aminuddin, who was sworn in as menteri besar in August 2023, also appears to carry another burden that will further hamper his chances of pulling off an upset in Linggi.

According to Mad, Linggi - located within the Sungai Ujong territory (luak) - is home to a community that still strictly adheres to adat perpatih (customary law).

He explained that the local community blames Aminuddin for the ongoing crisis between the undangs (ruling chiefs) and the Yang di-Pertuan Besar of Negeri Sembilan.

"Although they don’t speak about it openly, voters discuss this customary issue in coffee shops, and most of them blame Aminuddin," he said.

READ MORE: Court freezes moves against N Sembilan royal council, orders status quo maintained

Voter composition, flood issue

Linggi is composed of 61 percent Malay voters, while Chinese and Indian voters make up nearly 18 percent of the electorate each, with the remainder being Orang Asli and other races.

Malay voters are mostly located around Tanjung Agas, Pekan Linggi, Bandar Sunggala, Kampung Sawah Sunggala, Pasir Panjang, traditional villages, and several other areas.

Chinese voters form small pockets in Pekan Linggi, Pasir Panjang, and Bandar Sunggala, which are polling districts contributing the largest votes to BN.

In Pekan Linggi, several Chinese voters expressed anger towards the state's Harapan administration.

A Chinese voter who wished to be known as Ah Chia was dissatisfied with the Aminuddin-led state government, saying it failed to resolve the flood problem in the area.

"The flood problem here hasn't been solved to this day, even though Aminuddin promised multiple times to fix it.

"Every time it floods, our property gets destroyed, and we suffer losses - when will this be resolved?" he asked.

Govt failure to address fisherfolk problems

Another voter, who wanted to be known as Uncle Lim, voiced a similar sentiment.

“When floods come, our belongings are ruined, and we lose out.

“Until when (do we have to endure this)? The government has yet to resolve this problem,” he said.

Linggi is also home to a community of fisherfolk who make a living from the coastal waters.

They raised concerns over several issues, including the dilapidated jetty and rising operating costs following fuel price increases.

They expressed frustration that these problems have yet to be adequately addressed by the government.

Candidate factor

Another factor that will complicate Aminuddin’s mission is the reputation of the seat’s incumbent, Faizal, whom most voters seemed satisfied with.

This sentiment was even shared by Harapan supporter Saufi Miad, who admitted that Faizal - who is also a former state exco - has served well there.

"Even though Faizal is not from the same party... honestly, he is a good leader. But why do we want to change? Because we want better, and Tok Min (Aminuddin) as menteri besar can certainly offer better," he said.

Saufi described Aminuddin's move to contest in a BN stronghold as a bold one.

With all these factors working against him, it raises many questions about why Aminuddin chose Linggi of his own volition.

However, the answer may lie in simple election arithmetic.

Aminuddin's expansion bid is required if Harapan wants a chance at either forming the next state government or at least ending election night on an 18-18 draw with BN-PN.

Without this, there's no chance of Aminuddin returning as menteri besar even if he were to remain in a "safe" seat.

Further, Aminuddin's own prospects in PKR are limited now due to the party vice-president's close association with former PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli - who is an enemy to the party.

From this perspective, Aminuddin's Linggi gambit is more of a move by someone who has nothing to lose, rather than a desperate suicide attack.

With the odds against him and Harapan, the caretaker menteri besar can go out with a bang and paint his foray into the BN stronghold as a last heroic battle before he rides off into the sunset.

Bersatu splitting votes

Aminuddin’s campaign has been viewed as unremarkable, with his machinery focusing on his experience as menteri besar and the state administration's performance, as well as playing up sentiments against BN as "traitors" who caused an early state election.

The only factor that might work in Aminuddin’s favour is that the seat will see a three-cornered fight, involving a candidate from Bersatu.

Aminuddin stands a chance of pulling off a surprise if he can secure full support from Chinese and Indian voters, win a significant number of Malay votes, and if, at the same time, Bersatu candidate Zamri Said manages to split Malay voter support to dent Faizal's odds.

In the 2023 state election, which saw a straight fight, Zamri lost to Faizal by a 1,461-vote majority.

What is almost certain is that Aminuddin faces a "mission impossible" in Linggi with less than a week of campaigning to go.

COMMENT | Chennah: A test of performance, inclusivity, and political realignment

N Sembilan BN confident it can broker solution to royal dispute if returned to power

BN-PN N Sembilan pact will not sideline other races, look at other PAS-run states: Jalaluddin

Caretaker MB to Umno leader: 'If you wanted a debate, it should've been at start of campaign'

COMMENT | Base battlegrounds in Negeri Sembilan polls: Part 1

Harapan unveils economy, welfare-focused N Sembilan manifesto