ANALYSIS After nine days of campaigning, the outcome of the Teluk Intan parliamentary by-election may ultimately be decided by voters who do not live in the constituency.

A return of these outstation voters can result in a DAP victory, while a low turnout could well work in the BN’s favour.

Like many small towns in Perak, a large segment of Teluk Intan's registered voters reside outside the town, mainly working in the Klang Valley.

Going by the estimate of BN candidate Mah Siew Keong, almost 30 percent of the registered voters live away and need to return to Teluk Intan to vote, most of whom are young people inclined to the opposition.

This is why DAP has launched a 'Jom Balik Undi' campaign, to urge voters to return to Teluk Intan on Saturday, while its leaders constantly stress the need for a high turnout for the party to confidently win the by-election.

In the last general election, Teluk Intan registered a 80 percent turnout, the highest ever recorded in the constituency.

And since this by-election raises no chance - or even talk - of a Putrajaya takeover, it remains to be seen whether the outstation voters would return in droves to vote.

DAP gets antsy

DAP campaign workers have even started calling and messaging some voters to remind them about this by-election, but there have been mixed signals as to how the young voters are responding to this tactic.

While there might be many who would return after the reminder, there are also some who have voiced their discontent with the approach itself.

The antsy party has also arranged for subsidised transportation for voters in Klang Valley and Singapore in order to raise the voter turnout.

For Mah, the opposite is true. A lower turnout is likely to benefit him and the BN.

This way, elders who are residing in Teluk Intan would influence their children instead of the the other way around, which is what he said happened in the 2013 general election.

Mah may see the low turnout of just 56 percent in the recent Bukit Gelugor by-election as a sign of hope, while for DAP, it rings an alarm bell.

But unlike Bukit Gelugor, where DAP's Ramkarpal Singh Deo was a clear favourite, Mah and DAP's Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud are in a tough fight for the Teluk Intan parliamentary seat.

Neck-to-neck campaign

The presence of a host of BN ministers throughout the campaign period to help Mah has brought new attention to the plight of the people here, especially those on the outskirts of the town.

Despite the late MP Seah Leong Peng's solid 7,600-vote majority in the last general election, DAP this time has brought in other Pakatan Rakyat powerhouses, and even raised campaign funds from the public to keep up with BN's razzle dazzle.

However, this neck and neck style of campaigning in Teluk Intan may not be reflected outside the borders of the small town or inspire outside voters to return.

With such uncertainty in the air, both sides are claiming to be underdogs and keeping their feet on the ground to avoid blame in the event of a defeat.

DAP has said that, optimistically, it would only win by 1,000 votes , while as at yesterday, Mah had given himself a 45 per cent chance of winning the seat.

The voting pattern on Saturday will show whether the mammoth momentum for change generated in the 13th general election is still alive, one year later.

Yesterday: No racial barriers broken, voter support status quo

RAM ANAND is a member of the Malaysiakini team.

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