Rumblings from Johor Umno in support of axed deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, and against his former boss, have left many wondering if the party's birth state will start an open revolt against current president Najib Abdul Razak.

However, political analyst Ibrahim Suffian holds the view that based on the history, such grumblings have a tendency of fizzling out.

"Things might be slightly different now, but going by past experience, when a standing politician loses his position in the government, he also loses a great deal of influence.

"What may be seen as an initial, emotional outpouring of support or opposition to the boss will normally fizzle out, because people will start to weigh the cost of opposition.

"In a system like ours, it doesn't pay to be in the opposition, especially if you are in the ruling party. And going by history, most people will eventually come back to the fold," Ibrahim ( photo ) said when contacted by Malaysiakini .

The Merdeka Center chief added that many in Johor have good reasons to stick with Najib.

"There are many ministers from Johor, so a lot of people in Umno have vested interests in staying with Najib," Ibrahim said.

Two ministers and six deputy ministers hail from Johor. They are Defence Minister Hishammuddin Hussein and Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Azalina Othman, with the deputy ministers being Nur Jazlan Mohamad, Abdul Aziz Kaprawi, Ahmad Maslan, Halimah Mohd Sadique, Hamim Samuri and Razali Ibrahim.

How long will they remain unhappy?

As such, Ibrahim said, it remains to be seen if the rebellious divisions will make a majority, and if so, how long they will remain unhappy.

Penang Institute fellow Wong Chin Huat said there are clear signs of rebellion in Johor Umno, but the questions remained as to how far it would go.

"You need high-ranking people to openly break ranks. There needs to be an open revolt, or else it will just drag on," Wong ( photo ) told Malaysiakini .

So far, he said, only the menteris besar of Johor and Kedah, Khaled Nordin and Mukhriz Mahathir, have shown signs of revolting.

"If Najib removes them, then the real show will commence," Wong said.

While he is not certain how far the Johor rebellion would go, Wong said it was a clear sign that Najib isn't as in control as he thinks he is.

"He has the cabinet, but it's clear Najib does not have full control of the grassroots," he said.

The tensions in Johor began after Najib dropped Muhyiddin from the cabinet last Tuesday, believed to be due to the Umno deputy president's vocal criticisms of the 1MDB imbroglio.

Muhyiddin has called for calm in Umno, but divisions supporting him seem to have other plans.

In the Kluang Umno annual general meeting last Sunday, delegates passed a motion calling on Najib to answer questions about 1MDB, as well as on the murder of Altantuya Shaariibuu.

The Pasir Gudang Umno division has also called on the delegates to its AGM to ask Najib questions when he comes to officiate their event this Sunday.

Khaled has said that Umno can no longer keep quiet and put the truth above loyalty.

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