DAP may gain sympathy votes by calling for a snap election in Penang and portraying Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng as a victim of political persecution.

However, three out of four analysts who spoke to Malaysiakini on this issue questioned whether this is the right thing to do.

University of Tasmania's Asia Institute director James Chin believes a snap state election should be held, and that DAP will win the election hands down.

“They might even win some of the Malay seats held by Umno. People are really angry at the selective prosecution of Lim. Charging Lim for corruption is seen as vindictive and political by many people, except for hardcore Umno (supporters),” Chin told Malaysiakini yesterday, by email.

Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (Ideas) chief executive Wan Saiful Wan Jan’s prediction of the polls outcome is more modest.

Wan Saiful (photo) said the outpouring of public sympathy for Lim, who is DAP secretary-general, gives rise to a possibility of a slight increase in the margin of the party's victory in the state.

But what if BN does the same thing when one of its own leaders are taken to court?

"I think there is a very big chance that DAP will win again, because there is obviously a lot of sympathy for Lim. Many people do feel this is selective prosecution.

“This is from a political angle. From a moral angle, DAP and Pakatan Harapan, as a whole, would be very upset if Umno or BN were to do something similar if any of their leaders are being investigated by the authorities,” he told Malaysiakini when contacted.

In any case, regardless of the outcome of an election, the prosecution against Lim would still go on unperturbed, Wan Saiful said.

The political, security and international cluster head of the National Council of Professors, Mohamed Mustafa Ishak, warned against mixing politics with the judicial process, and urged DAP not to overreact.

'Not proper to pre-empt the court'

Mustafa said it is not proper to pre-empt the court, as though a guilty verdict is a forgone conclusion, which may not turn out to be the case.

Instead, he added, DAP should allow due process to take its course and for Lim to defend himself in court.

“Whether it is a political persecution or not, let the due process of law take its course. And then, you can bring the matter up in court. If you say you have strong grounds, then you defend on those grounds,” Mustafa said.

On the other hand, he said, the state government’s priority should be to ensure the smooth running of the state.

The state government must ensure that it has delivered its election promises and fulfilled the mandate given to it by the people, he said, before seeking a fresh mandate.

Mustafa said the then prime minister, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi (photo), had made this mistake when he called for a snap election in 2008.

His unfulfilled promises came under scrutiny, and he was nearly defeated, he said.

“Because, at the end of the day, the rakyat will judge them based on what they had promised,” Mustafa added.

If a snap election is indeed held, Penang DAP will have to face the entire might of BN's election machinery, he said, in contrast to a general election where BN’s resources would be spread out across the country.

With PAS out of the opposition coalition and its splinter party Amanah still in disarray, BN will put up a good fight in Penang where there is no guarantee that DAP would win big if a snap election is called, he said.

Voters also interested in policy issues

Meanwhile, pollster Ibrahim Suffian concurred with Mustafa that voters are interested in policy issues and not just Lim’s political survival.

Ibrahim, who is programme director at Merdeka Center, said DAP would likely win a snap election, but he is not sure of the margin as the centre has yet to conduct a study on this.

“People are going to be mixed, in the sense that you have a strong support for Lim in Penang, but I think an election centred solely on a political leader’s situation can only go so far.

“Voters are becoming more demanding, more sophisticated. The discourse needs to be broadened to include what it means for the rakyat, what it means for the people in Penang, and how an earlier election is going to deliver better results and better policies for them, as opposed to ensuring the political survival of one person,” Ibrahim (photo) told Malaysiakini.

Lim is facing two charges of corruption in court. However, his party and his supporters view this as a political ploy to divert attention from the scandals faced by Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak.

DAP launched a solidarity campaign for Lim yesterday, while Penang DAP mulls the option of whether to call for a snap election or not.

The other option, Deputy Chief Minister II P Ramasamy told Malaysiakini, is to wait for the general election that is due to be called by 2018.

“Whatever option we take, we will ask the people to decide whether the action taken against Lim is indeed political persecution, and whether the people want Pakatan Harapan to continue ruling the state,” he said.

BN strategic communications director Abdul Rahman Dahlan had said DAP should wait for the court to reach its verdict, so that the electorate can head to the polls as informed voters armed with knowledge of the evidence presented in court.

However, Wan Saiful said this would be to DAP’s detriment, as some of the evidence submitted in court could be damaging to Lim.

Chin agreed that DAP should not wait.

“You cannot wait for something like this as people have short memories. You must strike while people are angry.

“If you wait, people will lose their anger,” Chin said.